9/24-9/28/15, 380 Likely R voters, margin of error +-5
9/30/15, "Poll: Donald Trump still on top as outsiders Fiorina, Carson rise," USA Today,
Jeb Bush, who two months ago was second to Trump in the USA TODAY survey,
has tumbled to single digits and fifth place. The third-place finisher
last time, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, suspended his campaign entirely
"Unfortunately, I'm leaning toward Trump, only because
he's a non-political figure," says Ginger Mangam, 58, a
customer-service representative from Little Rock, Ark., who was among
those surveyed. Asked about his lack of electoral experience, she
replies: "I don't think it's a problem; I think it's a message."
Edelen, 37, a small-business owner from Vermillion, S.D., likes what he
hears from Trump and Fiorina. "I just want somebody who is going to
move our country in a direction different from where it is currently,"
he said in a follow-up interview.
The shifting landscape
underscores an electorate that is fed up with politics-as-usual and
willing to embrace contenders who promise to shake things up. Some
presidential hopefuls with significant political experience — New Jersey
Gov. Chris Christie, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and South Carolina
Sen. Lindsey Graham among them — have failed to gain traction and
now score at 1% or below, a standing that may make it harder for them to
raise money and command a spot on stage in future televised debates.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has risen to fourth place, backed by 9% of those surveyed.
poll of 380 likely Republican primary voters, taken Thursday through
Monday, has a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points. The full
sample of 1,000 likely voters has an error margin of 3 points....
He (Trump) continues to lead the field at 23%, up 6 points from the July survey. Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, and
Fiorina, an ex-CEO, tie for second at 13%, both big jumps the last poll.
That means about half of the GOP electorate now backs candidates who
have never served in elective office.
No other candidate breaks
into double digits. Rubio is at 9%, Bush at 8%, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at
6% and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 2%. Not a single respondent backs former
Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum or former New York governor George
"I support Donald Trump because...he's the only one that has what
it takes to stand up to people," declares Nina Neece, 56, of Turlock,
Calif. "He's not afraid of offending anybody."
Jordan Penegor, 21,
a barista from Reno, Nev., is following Carson on Facebook and likes
what she reads. "He's not a politician so he doesn't look at the
political views," Penegor says. "He just looks at helping the American
people as a whole."...
Six in 10 say the
country is on the wrong track, and just 30% say the Democratic and
Republican parties do a good job of representing Americans' political
views. A 53% majority say a third party or multiple parties are
Meanwhile, most Americans say it's not possible for a Muslim to be
elected president, an issue that arose when Carson expressed skepticism
on NBC's Meet the Press about whether an observant Muslim could
meet the job's constitutional requirements. By 53%-39%, those surveyed
say a Muslim couldn't be elected. However, by 49%-40%, they also say
they would vote for a qualified Muslim themselves."...
"Statement of Methodology: This survey of 1,000 likely
voters was conducted between September 24 and September 28, 2015, and is
based on live telephone interviews of adults 18 years of age or older,
residing in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and who intend
to vote in 2016. Quota and demographic information -- including region,
race, and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both
standard landlines (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called
using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the
phone numbers assigned to each state were proportional to the number of
adult residents in each state. States were grouped into four general
regions. Respondents in the households were selected by initially asking
for the youngest adult. Surveys were administered in English and
Spanish. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total
sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Error margins increase for
smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All
surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not
limited to coverage error and measurement error. The margin of error for
the Republican primary subset of 380 voters is +/- 5.03 percentage
Links to USA Today poll: Marginals, Tables
Added: The Republican Establishment nomination racket:
9/23/15, "Band (of consultants) paid on: Explaining Scott Walker," Washington Times, Ed Martin
"Mr. Walker failed because in every Republican cycle, the establishment
needs some guys to run and to fail. The Establishment needs the money
and employment, and they need candidates to play along with the rigged
Republican nomination process. Mr. Walker bought the Establishment plan
and he ran the same playbook that the Republican establishment has been
using for nearly two decades. That is, raise a boatload of money and
spend it on consultants and staff (especially in early states) and then
raise more money and run ads in Iowa and New Hampshire. (Media buyers
get 10 percent for the ad buys, and the media in Iowa and New Hampshire
love the cash too!) Pollsters must be paid big money to parse positions
and “sharpen” the candidate.
Walker went along with it all. He imported a campaign manager (Rick
Wiley) directly from RNC Chairman Reince Priebus' staff. And the hiring began.
Here in St. Louis, a prominent consultant was hired to do
grassroots/conservative coalitions…paid thousands of dollars but that
needle never moved (except down). Great quote from Mr. Reince’s guy who
ran the Walker campaign: “We didn’t have a spending problem - we had a
revenue problem.” Everyone wins except Scott Walker.
Next, Mr. Walker
started dancing on his positions as pollsters demand and it made him
look weak and confused - immigration is the best example. And the band
(of consultants) paid on as the ship slipped sideways.
racket that has worked well for the consultants with campaigns. (By the
way, don’t worry about the consultants and staffers - they are being
snapped up by other campaigns running the Establishment plan like Marco
Rubio and Jeb Bush! And Reince can put them back on the payroll, too.)
voters are sick of the D.C. racket. Voters care less if candidates
have served in office (Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson) or if
they understand the nuances of foreign policy (again, Mr. Carson, Mr.
Trump). No, the voters - in fact, most Americans - want someone who is
authentic and who will fight for them not for a political office but for
their future. If Mr. Walker understood this, he could have kept his staff to a minumum and his
spending light. He could have announced, “I plan to run until the end
and make a big argument for Americans.” He easily could have become the
consensus choice in late March or April when the others stumble.
his staff gathered Wednesday night at a microbrewery near their
Wisconsin headquarters. I suspect toasted their good fortunes: “Here’s
to us and to our next stop on another campaign.”"
Gov. Scott Walker knew he was part of a sham:
Gov. Scott Walker said he knew before Wed., 9/16 CNN debate even took place, the narrative was in place saying Fiorina won the night:
"We knew the narrative no matter what" was going to be that Fiorina won the night:
9/17/15, "Scott Walker: Media Would’ve Said Fiorina Won Debate ‘No Matter What’," MediaIte, by Andrew Desiderio
"Wisconsin Gov. and Republican presidential candidate Scott Walker went after the media following CNN’s GOP debate, telling radio host Glenn Beck on Thursday that members of the political press were going to spin the debate as a win for Carly Fiorina “no matter what.”
“I think going in, we knew the narrative no matter what was going
to happen was that they were going to say Carly had a big night, no
matter what, and obviously they said that,” Walker said."...