Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Trump leads with 33.6 in new Florida poll, Sept. 5-11 (Sa-F) eleven points ahead of Republican field, Jeb Bush falls to 15.2. Poll also shows GOP leaders beat Hillary Clinton in Florida-Gravis poll

9/15/15,  "Gravis Current Florida Polling":

Trump 33.6
Carson 22.4
Bush 15.2
Fiorina 6.2
Cruz 5.7
Rubio 5.4
Kasich 5.3
Huckabee 1.8
Walker 1.1
Jindal .8
Santorum .8
Christie .3
Pataki .3
Paul .2
9/15/15, "Jeb Bush Falls to Third in Florida Behind Donald Trump and Ben Carson, According to New Poll," Broward Palm Beach New Times, Chris Joseph

"Donald Trump continues to plow ahead in Florida, while Jeb Bush continues to flounder. This according to a new Gravis Marketing poll. The poll, released Monday, revealed more bad news for the former governor. Ben Carson has vaulted ahead of Bush, leaving Jeb in third.

Gravis polled 1,584 registered voters from September 5 to 11 via automated phone calls and cell-phone responses. And, much like we're seeing in Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump and Carson are polling strong in first and second place while Bush is coming in at third. 

The results show Trump holding a 33 percent lead in Florida, with Carson coming in with 22 percent. Bush, meanwhile, garnered 15 percent in the Gravis poll.

Bush has been struggling to make ground in Florida over the past few months, especially with Trump's popularity among GOP voters soaring.

Jeb had been cruising at 20 percent in a Quinnipiac University poll released back on June 18. But Qunnipiac's August poll showed Bush dropping to 17 percent among Florida's Republican voters, all while Trump began to gain serious momentum, coming from 3 percent to 21 percent among Florida Republicans, which, according to Quinnipiac, reflects the national polling

Now, with Gravis, Trump's lead has become a trend, while Bush continues to fall behind. Marco Rubio, meanwhile, has been lost in the forest of GOP contenders. 

According to those polled by Gravis, at 5.4 percent, Rubio trails Carly Florina, who came in with 6.2 percent, and Ted Cruz at 5.7 percent. Mike Huckabee is at 1.8 percent, and Scott Walker is at 1.1 percent. 

Yet, even with Rubio flailing, Gravis showed Jeb no love. When Florida Republican voters were asked who they would support if the race came down between Bush and Rubio, Rubio would win 51-31 percent, with 18 percent undecided.

Back in June, Quinnipiac had Rubio at 18 percent among Republican voters. The latest poll has him at 11 percent.

Plus, as it stands right now, whoever wins the Republican ticket is leading Democrat Hillary Clinton in Florida when it comes to the general election. 

The Gravis poll shows Clinton leading the Democratic with 41.6 percent, followed by Joe Biden — who has not announced his candidacy — at 21.4 percent. Bernie Sanders comes in third in Florida with 12.5 percent.

Gravis has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent for the 891 Republicans, and plus or minus 4 percent for the 693 Democrats polled."

Image above from Gravis, Sept. 5-11, 2015 Florida poll


9/15/15, "Gravis Current Florida Polling," Sept. 5-11, 2015

"Executive Summary

"Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,584 registered voters in Florida regarding the presidential election. The poll has a margin of error of ±3% for the 891 Republicans and ± 4% for the 693 Democrats. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using automated telephone calls (IVR technology) and cell phone responses. The results are weighted by anticipated voting demographics. The weighting was done separately for each question."




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