Thursday, September 24, 2015

Trump continues to top Republican field, up two points in post CNN debate New Hampshire CNN WMUR poll, ten points ahead of GOP field. 40% expect Trump to be nominee-Sept. 17-23 poll

9/17-9/23 poll dates, 344 likely R primary voters, 5.3 moe


Trump 26%

Fiorina 16%
Rubio 9%
Carson 8%
Bush 7%
Kasich 7% 
Christie 5% 
Cruz 5%
Paul 3%

"These findings are based on the latest CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Eight hundred and twenty(820) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between September 17 and September 23, 2015. The margin of sampling error is +/-3.4 percent. 

Included were three\hundred forty-four (344) likely 2016 Republican Primary voters (MSE = +/-5.3), three hundred fourteen (314) likely 2016 Democratic Primary voters (MSE = +/-5.5), and seven hundred and forty-three (743) likely 2016 presidential election voters (MSE = +/-3.6)....

Donald Trump continues to top the field in New Hampshire with 26% of likely Republican primary voters supporting him.Trump is followed by Fiorina (16%), Rubio (9%), Carson (8%), Kasich (7%), Bush (7%), Christie (5%), Cruz (5%), Paul (3%),Gilmore (1%) and Graham (1%)....

"Who will win NH primary?" 40% say Trump:


p. 7, "When asked who they think will win the 2016 New Hampshire Republican Primary, 40% think Trump will win, 12% think Bush will win, 8% think Fiorina will win, and % think Rubio will win. The percentage believing Trump will win the primary has increased 15 percentage points since July. This poll marks the first time that New Hampshire Republicans did not name Bush as the candidate who would win the Primary."...

p. 8, Plurality of 27% believe Trump has best chance of winning 2016 general election.

"Twenty-seven percent (27%) chose Trump as having the best chance to win the general election in November, 16% chose Bush, 9% chose Fiorina."...

p. 8, "Who is least likely to act like a typical politician?"

Trump 68

Carson 11 
Fiorina 4
Christie 3
Bush 2
Paul 2

p. 12, Polling trends among likely NH Republican primary voters for the 2016 nomination


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