Monday, September 14, 2015

Trump continues to lead in New Hampshire per latest Monmouth Poll, Sept. 10-13, 2015. Trump at 28 is 11 points ahead of Republican field, appeals equally to conservatives, moderates, and new voters

Poll dates, Sept. 10-13, 2015. 415 New Hampshire likely Republican primary voters, live telephone interviews, 4.8 margin of error.

9/14/15, "NEW HAMPSHIRE: TRUMP MAINTAINS GOP LEAD," Monmouth University Poll

p. 3, "Who would you support if the presidential primary was being held today?"...

Donald Trump 28

Ben Carson 17
Kasich 11
Ted Cruz 8
Bush 7
Fiorina 7
Paul 4
Rubio 4
Christie 2
Walker 2


Trump does well with "Registered Republicans," "Registered Independents," and "new voters:"

p. 2, "The Monmouth University Poll found that Donald Trump leads among most segments of the Granite State primary electorate, including:  


New Hampshire’s open primary system allows undeclared voters to participate in party primaries. There is no significant difference in support levels based on partisan registration. Trump does equally as well among registered Republicans (28%) as he does among registered independents and new voters (29%). This marks a 7 point improvement in his support among registered Republicans and no change among other voters since July. 

– Trump’s support has declined slightly among very conservative voters, but has improved among somewhat conservative and moderate voters. Very conservative voters back Carson (25%), Trump (23%), and Cruz (13%). Somewhat conservative voters support Trump (32%), followed by Carson (17%). Moderate voters back Trump (29%) and Kasich (19%)."


p. 6, The Monmouth Poll was conducted with a "statewide random sample of 415 New Hampshire voters drawn from a list of registered Republican and independent voters who participated in a primary election in the past two election cycles or voted in both the 2012 and 2014 general elections, and indicate they will vote in the Republican presidential primary in February 2016. This was supplemented by a sample of non-voters who say they are likely to register and vote in the Republican primary." 



No comments: