Friday, September 11, 2015

Trump leads Iowa with 27 points, six points ahead of field, latest Quinnipiac poll, 8/27-9/8/15

9/11/15, "Donald Trump Leads in Iowa in New Quinnipiac Poll," NY Times, First Draft, Alan Rappeport

9/9/15 in Washington, DC

"Republican presidential candidates spent much of the summer canvassing Iowa to court the state’s caucus-goers and, so far, Donald J. Trump and Ben Carson seem to have made the best impressions.

A poll from Quinnipiac University found Mr. Trump leading the crowded field with support of 27 percent of likely participants in the Republican caucus. Mr. Carson, a retired neurosurgeon who has been surging in recent polls, trails him with 21 percent.

The landscape has shifted since July, when the same poll showed Gov. Scott Walker leading Republicans in the Hawkeye State. But after a strong start, the Republican from Wisconsin has seen his prospects in Iowa plummet, with just 3 percent saying they would support him....

Senator Ted Cruz of Texas rounds out the top three with 9 percent, while the rest of the Republican candidates are lagging in the low single-digits.

Mr. Trump and Mr. Carson both perform well with Republicans in the Tea Party movement and with evangelical Christians. The poll shows that if Mr. Trump were to leave the race, most of his support would shift to Mr. Carson or to Mr. Cruz....

Quinnippiac’s poll had a margin of error of 3 percentage points."

Image caption: "Donald Trump shook hands at a rally on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday. Credit Zach Gibson/The New York Times"

9/11/15, Quinnipiac University Iowa Poll, Release Detail, 8/27-9/8/15

Donald Trump 27
Ben Carson 21
Ted Cruz 9
Jeb Bush 6
Fiorina 5
Kasich 5
Rubio 5
Huckabee 4
Paul 4
Walker 3
Jindal 2

"From August 27 [Th]-September 8 [Tu], Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,038 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones."...

Question 20, Trump Favorability:

Total: 60%
Tea party: 72%
Evangelical 56%
Very conserv. 65%
Somewhat conserv. 62%
Mod-Lib. 50%
Men 66%
Women 53%

Question 38, Does Donald Trump have leadership qualities?
Total 83% 
Tea Party 87% 
Evangelical 83% 
Very conserv. 84% 
Somewhat conserv. 85% 
Mod.-Liberal 77% 
Men 86% 
Women 79% 
Other candidate leadership qualities: 
Question 41, Kasich 45%  
Question 34, Rand Paul 50% 
Question 32, Bush 55% 
Question 40, Ted Cruz 66%  
Question 39, Fiorina 67%  
Question 35, Rubio 68%    
Question 33, Scott Walker 69% 
Question 37, Huckabee 70  
Question 36, Carson 76% 

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