Sunday, September 13, 2015

Trump leads in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina in latest CBS News YouGov polls, 9/3-9/10/15 (Th-Th)

9/13/15, "Sanders up big in New Hampshire and Iowa; Carson trails Trump," YouGov poll, Wm. Jordan

"The Republican nomination: it’s still Trump" (scroll down)


Trump 29
Carson 25
Cruz 10
Rubio 6
Fiorina 4
Huckabee 4
Walker 4
Bush 3
Santorum 3
Jindal 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2

New Hampshire

Trump 40
Carson 12
Kasich 9
Fiorina 8
Bush 6
Paul 6
Cruz 5
Walker 3
Christie 2
Rubio 2
Huckabee 2

South Carolina

Trump 36
Carson 21
Cruz 6
Bush 5
Graham 5
Kasich 4
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 3
Rubio 3
Walker 3
Christie 2
Jindal 2
Paul 2

"Trump’s most substantial lead is in New Hampshire, where he has the support of 40% of likely Republican primary voters. Carson comes in second again, but by a much greater distance, with only 12% support and a smattering of other candidates close behind him, including John Kasich at 9% and Carly Fiorina at 8%. Jeb Bush, who led most polls in New Hampshire throughout the early summer, is tied for fifth with Rand Paul, at 6%....

Data elsewhere in the poll sheds some light on the phenomenon. Asked which one of four candidate qualities is most important to deciding their vote, Republican voters cited experience “getting things done” in the private sector [p. 15, Iowa] more often than political acumen in all three states....

The Republican portion of the sample includes 610 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, 1002 in South Carolina, and 705 likely caucus voters in Iowa."

Iowa poll

p. 10, question 8, 67% believe illegal aliens should be required to leave the US, asked of 705 likely Republican caucus voters 

p. 16, question 16, 47% believe illegal aliens must leave the US, asked of 1670 registered voters

p. 5, Private sector business experience preferred by 36% over 'true conservative,' 25% among Republican primary voters


New Hampshire poll

p. 10, 62% believe illegal aliens must leave the US, asked of  610 Likely Republican Voters

p. 16, 44% believe illegal aliens should be required to leave the US, asked of 1350 Registered voters

p. 6, 39% prefer a candidate with business and private sector experience, only 13% favor a 'true conservative' (asked of Republican voters)


South Carolina poll

p. 10, 66% say illegal aliens must leave the US, asked of 1002 Likely Republican voters

p. 6, 41% believe illegal aliens must leave the US, asked of 1840 Registered voters,

p. 6, Private sector business experience preferred by 38% over 'true conservative,' 23% (asked of Republican primary voters)


More on above 3 YouGov polls:

9/13/15, "Battleground Tracker: Trump leads GOP field in IA, NH, SC," CBS News, Anthony Salvanto, Fred Backus, Jennifer De Pinto, Sarah Dutton

"Showing no signs of a slowdown heading into the fall, Donald Trump leads the Republican Presidential field in each of the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Trump's lead in New Hampshire is especially large and he's up double-digits in South Carolina. In Iowa, it's become a two-man field for the moment, as Dr. Ben Carson is closer to Trump than anyone in any state, and together the two political newcomers have distanced themselves from the rest of the pack....

In drawing close to Trump in Iowa, Carson relies on the support of evangelical voters-he leads among them there. But Trump leads among evangelicals in South Carolina. The two roughly split tea Party supporters in Iowa, which is one reason Carson is closer there, but Trump has large leads with the Tea Party in New Hampshire and South Carolina....

Most of Trump's backers are enthusiastic about him, which may add a challenge for rivals trying to unseat him. 65 percent of his backers are enthusiastic in Iowa, only 32 percent are supporting him with reservations. In New Hampshire, 56 percent are enthusiastic and 62 percent in South Carolina. Across the entire field, at least half of Republicans in each state are enthusiastic about their current choice, whoever it is. No other candidate receives enough support to measure the enthusiasm of their voters against Trump's....

Trump's business experience jibes with what voters say they're seeking. Atop the list of criteria for choosing a candidate is experience getting things done in business and the private sector: just over a third of Republican primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina choose it. That number outpaces those who say they're looking for a "true conservative," which may help explain why his rivals' attempts to challenge Trump's conservative bona fides haven't moved the needle.... 

The CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is based on interviews conducted on the internet between September 3 and 10 with 4,860 registered voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. The poll was conducted by YouGov, an online polling organization. The "margin of error" is an approximate 95 percent confidence interval for the sampling proportion.

Respondents were selected for participation from available panel members to be representative of registered voters from each state in terms of age, race, and gender. A propensity score (based upon a case-control logistic regression including age, race, gender, education, born-again status, and party registration) was estimated for each respondent and responding panelists were post-stratified upon propensity score deciles. A score for likelihood of voting was computed for each respondent based upon past turnout and self-reported likelihood of voting in the presidential primary.
Respondents were selected from YouGov's and two other online panels and YouGov also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 19,047 registered voters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1,163 phone recruits. A complete description of the methodology is in the link below.

The document below describes the poll's methodology and margin of error in detail."


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