"The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone September 4-8 (F-Tu) among a random national sample of 1,012 adults. This sample included 930 interviews with registered voters, 474 of whom were self-identified Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. For results among all registered voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Among Republican voters, it is plus or minus 4.5 points."...Following from p. 9:
Trump 32
Carson 19
Bush 9
Cruz 7
Huckabee 5
Walker 5
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
Rubio 3
9/10/15, "Poll: Donald Trump surges to 32% support" CNN, by Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director
Trump
gained 8 points since August to land at 32% support, and has nearly
tripled his support since just after he launched his campaign in June.
The new poll finds former neurosurgeon Ben Carson rising 10 points to
land in second place with 19%. Together, these two non-politicians now
hold the support of a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning
independents, and separately, both are significantly ahead of all other
competitors.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb
Bush stands in third place with 9%, down 4 points since August, and
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz holds fourth place with 7%. Former Arkansas Gov.
Mike Huckabee and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker follow at 5%, with all
other candidates at 3% or less, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who
notched the only other statistically significant shift in the poll by
falling 5 points since August.
Trump's
gains come most notably among two groups that had proven challenging
for him in the early stages of his campaign -- women and those with
college degrees. While he gained just 4 points among men in the last
month (from 27% in August to 31% now), he's up 13 points among women,
rising from 20% in August to 33% now. Trump has also boosted his share
of the vote among college graduates, increasing his support among those
with degrees from 16% in August to 28% now. Among those without degrees,
he stands at 33%, just slightly higher than the 28% support he had in
August.
Trump
has also catapulted ahead of the rest of the field among Republicans
who back the tea party movement, from 27% support in August to 41% now [p. 30].
Among that group in the new poll, Carson follows with 21%, and Cruz,
another candidate with an anti-Washington message, holds third with 11%.
No other candidate tops 5% among tea partiers.
Carson's
gains, meanwhile, have come chiefly among core partisans -- he's up 13
points among Republicans and 11 points among conservatives -- and he
runs closest to Trump among white evangelicals (32% back Trump, 28%
Carson), a key voting bloc within the Republican primary electorate.
Carson
also has enthusiasm at his side. Republicans are more than twice as
likely to say they would be enthusiastic with Carson at the top of the
ticket than if Rubio, Cruz, Walker or Bush led the GOP into 2016, and
while he and Trump are about even in enthusiasm (43% would be
enthusiastic if Carson got the nod, 40% if Trump did), fewer say they
would be disappointed if Carson emerged the victor (20% would be
dissatisfied or upset if Carson won, 32% if Trump did).
Still,
most Republican voters (51%) think Trump is most likely to emerge as
the GOP winner, [p. 44, scroll to R's] well ahead of the 19% who think Bush will top the party
ticket and 11% who think Carson will. In a July poll, 14% of Republican
voters said they thought Walker was most likely to wind up the winner,
in the new poll, that figure stands at just 1%.
Support
for the "outsider" contingent of Trump, Carson and to some extent
businesswoman Carly Fiorina (who hasn't built on her post-debate boomlet
in this poll, she has just 3% support) rests more on their positions on
the issues than their experience outside of Washington.
Among
those backing one of those three candidates without experience in
elective office, 75% say they back them because of their views on the
issues, 16% because of their on-the-job experience and 7% because they
dislike the other candidates. Among those backing candidates who have
previously been elected to office, 34% say their experience is the main
draw, 51% issue positions, and 14% say it's due to dislike of the other
candidates.
Although
Bush's support for the nomination has dipped only slightly since the
August poll, there are few positive signs for a man once seen as the
front-runner for the nomination. The 19% who think he's most likely to
win the party's nomination is down from 31% in July. Nearly half of
Republicans (47%) say they would be dissatisfied or upset should he win
the nomination, and just 16% say they would be enthusiastic about his
candidacy if he did win. And his push to be the candidate of economic
growth hasn't resonated: Just 7% who call the economy an extremely
important issue say they would back him for the Republican nomination.
As
Trump and Carson have gained, Republican voters have begun to gain
enthusiasm for the coming presidential election. While 28% described
themselves as "extremely enthusiastic" about the election in July and
August, that's now climbed to 34%, while deep enthusiasm among Democrats
has dipped from 33% to 28%.
Trump's
growth in the field has also come alongside an increase in attention to
the issue of illegal immigration. A majority of Republicans now call
the issue extremely important to their vote for president, 51% now call
it extremely important, up from 39% in a June CNN/ORC poll. Among that
group, Trump holds a wide lead, with 42% support compared with 17% for
Carson, 10% for Cruz, 9% for Bush and 5% for Walker.
The
was conducted by telephone September 4-8 among a random
national sample of 1,012 adults. This sample included 930 interviews
with registered voters, 474 of whom were self-identified Republicans or
Republican-leaning independents. For results among all registered
voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage
points. Among Republican voters, it is plus or minus 4.5 points."
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