Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Trump up 7 points in Florida, beats Bush and Rubio combined, also leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania, 'zooming well past Kasich' in Ohio. Bush at 4 in both Ohio and Pennsylvania-Quinnipiac Swing State Poll, Sept. 25-Oct. 5, 2015


Poll dates 9/25-10/5/15, asked of Registered Republicans, live interviews on land lines and cell phones.

Florida: 461 Republicans, 4.6 margin of error. 
Ohio: 433 Republicans, 4.7 margin of error. 
Penna.: 427 Republicans, 4.7 margin of error.

"The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.....
Trump tops the Republican primary list in Florida with 28 percent, up from 21 percent in Quinnipiac University's August 20 Swing State Poll."...


Trump 28
Carson 16
Rubio 14
Bush 12
Fiorina 7
Cruz 6

""The generally more energized Republican party members, who backed former Gov. Bush and Sen. Rubio when they ran for office in the Sunshine State, are deserting the establishment candidates for the outsiders - specifically Trump and Carson," (Quinnipiac's) Brown said."...


Trump 23
Carson 18
Kasich 13
Cruz 11
Fiorina 10
Rubio 7
Bush 4

""Gov. John Kasich's big card was his enormous popularity in Ohio, generally considered the most important swing state in the November election," (Quinnipiac's) Brown said. "But with Trump zooming well past him in the Buckeye State and Kasich's numbers in Florida and Pennsylvania in low single digits, the Ohio governor's campaign is going in the wrong direction.""...


Trump 23
Carson 17
Rubio 12
Fiorina 8
Cruz 6 
Christie 5
Bush 4
Huckabee 4


10/7/15, "Poll: Trump leads swing states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania," USA Today, On Politics, David Jackson

"Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican presidential contest, not just in early contests states like Iowa and New Hampshire, but in the key swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
A new Quinnipiac University Poll illustrates Trump’s leads in those latter three states, two of which are homes to Republican opponents Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich.

“Those who were waiting for Donald Trump’s campaign to collapse will need to wait longer, at least in the three key states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

In Florida, Trump leads with 28%, followed by retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson with 16%. Rubio, a U.S. senator from the Sunshine State, is third at 14%. Bush, a former governor of Florida, is fourth at 12%, followed by businesswoman Carly Fiorina (7%) and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (6%).

The Quinnipiac Poll in Ohio puts Trump first at 23%, with Carson second at 18%. Kasich, the sitting governor of Ohio, is third at 13%, followed by Cruz (11%), Fiorina (10%), Rubio (7%), and Bush (4%).

In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac has Trump at 23%, Carson at 17%, and Rubio at 12%, followed by Fiorina (8%), Cruz (6%), and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (5%). Bush and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee are both at 4%.

In analyzing the poll, Quinnipiac’s Brown noted that Fiorina and Carson — “the other two outsider candidates in the GOP race — also “seem to be making progress. But Bush, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas seem to be treading water.”" 

MSNBC image at top via Dan Scavino twitter


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