Friday, October 16, 2015

Trump leads latest NBC national online poll, Oct. 13-15, 2015

Trump 28
Carson 23
Rubio 9
Cruz 6
Fiorina 6
Bush 5
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
Christie 2
Paul 2
Jindal 1

Oct. 13-15, 2015, online poll. p. 5, Asked of "Republicans and Lean Republican," +/-3.2 pts. 

10/16/15, "NBC News Survey Monkey"


"The NBC News Online Poll was conducted online by SurveyMonkey October 13-15, 2015 among a national sample of 4,898 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected using an algorithm from among the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey  platform  each  day.  Data for this survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and region using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States. Because the  sample  is  based on  those  who initially  self-selected for participation  rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error

Polls conducted in one day may include additional error due to the limited time period that panelists have to respond to and complete the survey. To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate, meaning we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate  the   95%  confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error."...


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