Monday, October 19, 2015

Trump continues to lead Republican field in Florida ahead of both Bush and Rubio, University of North Florida poll, Oct. 8-Oct. 13, 2015. Florida GOP Primary voters say top 3 problems in US are economy, terrorism and immigration

Trump 21.7
Carson 19.3
Rubio 14.9
Bush 9.0
Cruz 6.8
Fiorina 6.5
Kasich 3.5
Huckabee 1.4
Christie 1.3

Poll dates Oct. 8-Oct. 13, 2015 (Th-Tu). 641 Registered Republican Primary Likely Voters, telephone poll. 3.87 margin of error.

10/19/15, "UNF Poll Reveals Trump Holds Slight Lead in Close Republican Primary Race," University of North Florida (Jacksonville) Press Release

Donald Trump 21.7%
Ben Carson 19.3%
Marco Rubio 14.9%
Jeb Bush 9%
Ted Cruz 6.8%
Carly Fiorina 6.5%
John Kasich 3.5%
Mike Huckabee 1.4%
Chris Christie 1.3%

"A polling sample of randomly selected adult (18 years of age or older) Republican likely voters was drawn from the Florida Division of Elections’ voter file. Likely voters are classified as voters who cast a ballot in at least 70 percent of recent elections in which they were eligible to vote (since 2008 general and primary elections)....Calls were made from 5 to 9 p.m. nightly from Thursday, Oct. 8 through Tuesday, Oct. 13, and included 641 adult registered Republican likely voters in Florida, with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.87 percent. Race, age and gender were weighted to reflect the adult registered Republican likely voter population in Florida."...

Most important problem facing US today:

1. Economy, jobs 35.4
2. Terrorism 18.1
3. Immigration 13.5 
4. Education 5.4
5. Political Leadership (Vol) 5.4%
6. Healthcare 4.9%
7. Social Security 3.7%
8. Morality/Values (Vol) 2.4%
9. National Security (Vol) 2.1%
10. National Debt (Vol) 2%
11. Environment 1.8%

"All choices read to respondent except when specified by “Volunteer” (Vol)
Ask All:... [Answer choices randomized]"...


Comment: Two poll questions included results by race but only whites and Hispanics, and with a sample of only 122 Hispanics. The margin of error on the small Hispanic sample size wasn't stated. Small sample sizes often mean much higher margins of error, ie, it likely wouldn't be the same as on 641 voters stated above as 3.87. Also, the poll apparently didn't include African Americans. Per 2014 Florida Census: 77.8 white, 16.8 African American, 24.1 Hispanic. 


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