Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Trump leads nationwide at 32 ahead of GOP debate #3 in YouGov poll. 41% believe Trump will be nominee-Economist YouGov poll, 10/23-10/27/15

Trump 32
Carson 18
Rubio 11
Bush 8
Cruz 8
Kasich 4
Paul 4
Fiorina 3
Christie  2
Huckabee 2
Graham 1
Jindal 1
Santorum 1

Above, "asked of registered voters who identified as Republican." p. 49

10/28/15, "Trump leads GOP nationally ahead of third debate,", Kathy Francovic

"The Economist/YouGov Poll includes the responses of 2,000 adults nationwide. The larger sample size means there are about 500 self-identified Republicans, and it is possible to look at subgroups within the party. Trump runs equally well with men and women, though his first choice margin over Carson is bigger among men than it is with women. Carson runs ahead of Trump in the Midwest; Trump leads in all other regions.

41% of Republicans this week believe Trump is their party’s likely nominee. And three in four Republicans think he can defeat the Democratic nominee, whomever that is."...

"October 23-27, 2015"

"Sampling method"

"Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in Internet panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Study. Voter registration was imputed from the November 2010 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting Supplement. Religion, political interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Pew Religion in American Life Survey. The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale. The weights range from 0.2 to 4.2, with a mean of one and a standard deviation of 0.94."

"Margin of error +-3"... 


No comments: