Friday, October 23, 2015

Trump leads Republican field in Ohio at 26.9, Jeb Bush 5.6. Zogby Analytics poll sponsored by Bowling Green University, Oct. 15-17, 2015

Trump 26.9
Carson 21.8
Kasich 12.5
Bush 5.6
Fiorina 5.6

Poll dates 10/15-10/17, 2015. Splits of 804 likely Ohio voters: 38D, 31R, 31Ind (approx, 249 R). 3.5 error margin

10/21/15, "BGSU poll: Trump, Clinton lead in Ohio," Toledo Blade, Tom Troy, Blade politics writer

"The first BGSU Poll had the real estate billionaire leading 14 other Republicans with 26.9 percent of the vote among likely Ohio voters....

Political science professor Melissa Miller...commissioned the poll with political science colleague David Jackson and the university’s office of communications.... 

Against former Secretary of State Clinton, Mr. Trump trails 45.9 percent to 34.8 percent....Mrs. Clinton defeats Dr. Carson 44.7 percent to 35.2 percent and Mr. Bush 47 percent to 30.5 percent. The poll didn’t ask how Mr. Kasich would do against Mrs. Clinton....

Mr. Trump’s low standing next to Mrs. Clinton could be improved in a political campaign in Ohio, said Ms. Miller. She said Mrs. Clinton already has a base of support, having won the state’s presidential primary in 2008. Mr. Trump is hurt by the negativity of the Republican contest, she said....

Zogby Analytics interviewed 804 likely voters by email. Of those, 38 percent identified as Democrats, 31 percent as Republicans, and 31 percent as independents. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. The survey was done last Thursday through Saturday [Oct. 15-17]....

For the Republican nomination, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson came in second after Mr. Trump with 21.8 percent. Next in line was Ohio Gov. John Kasich with 12.5 percent. After Mr. Kasich in the BGSU Poll was former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former corporate executive Carly Fiorina tied at 5.6 percent.

The BGSU Poll’s findings are in line with a poll released two weeks ago by Quinnipiac University. In that survey, Mr. Kasich stood at 13 percent, against 23 percent for Mr. Trump and 18 percent for Dr. Carson."... 

[Ed. note: But they're not in line with recent Quinnipiac poll on Trump v Clinton matchup. Clinton only ahead by +1, 43 to 42, 9/25-10/5/15.]

(continuing): "This is BGSU’s first foray into political polling. Ms. Miller said she and Mr. Jackson have wanted to do a poll because Wood County is a swing county in Ohio and gets a lot of media and advertising attention during the presidential campaign.

She said Wood County’s record of voting for the winning presidential candidate is second longest in the state, after Ottawa County. Wood County last supported the losing presidential candidate in 1976, while Ottawa County last voted for the losing candidate in 1960.

The poll cost $9,500, according to Jennifer Sobolewski, communications manager. She said the university’s interest in the poll is to raise BGSU’s visibility.

The survey was conducted by Zogby Analytics using online responses. Mr. Jackson said Zogby has a huge trove of email addresses and he said the email-based poll is just as scientific as the standard procedure of a random telephone poll....

Ms. Miller said Mr. Kasich’s political standing in Ohio reflects the fact that he is not campaigning here, but is focusing his political resources on New Hampshire, the nation’s first primary election in February. Of all the Republican candidates, Mr. Kasich had the highest favorability rating among Ohio voters, at 55.7 percent. Dr. Carson’s favorability was 52.7 percent. Everyone else was in negative territory.

Mr. Trump’s honesty and trustworthiness rating was 29.5 percent, compared with 38.2 percent for Dr. Carson and 29 percent for Mr. Bush. Only 26.7 percent of voters said Mr. Trump cares about the needs of people like them, compared with 25.4 percent for Mr. Bush....

Even Senator Sanders, an avowed socialist, leads all the major Republican contenders, with 42.4 percent against Mr. Trump’s 34.4 percent; 40.7 percent against Dr. Carson’s 33.3 percent, and with 42.9 percent against Mr. Bush’s 29.5 percent. In all those scenarios about a quarter of the likely voters were undecided."... via Free Republic


Comment: "Ms. Miller said Mr. Kasich’s political standing in Ohio reflects the fact that he is not campaigning here, but is focusing his political resources on New Hampshire. 

Despite Kasich's heavy investment in New Hampshire, he's among those still seeking traction there, per Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm Poll published 10/21:

Trump 24
Carson 17
Bush 10
Rubio 8
Fiorina 7
Kasich 7
Christie 5
Cruz 4
Paul 4
Huckabee 1
Graham 1
Santorum 1

Poll dates, Oct. 15-18

"Kasich has also invested heavily in New Hampshire, making roughly a dozen trips to the state since declaring his candidacy in July. In the past month, the super-PAC backing him, New Day for America, has run 144 spots in the state's television markets, according to data compiled by Kantar Media's CMAG."...

10/21/15, "Ad Blitz Fails to Lift Jeb Bush's Numbers in New Hampshire: Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm Poll," Bloomberg, John McCormick, Arit John

400 likely Republican primary voters, 4.9 margin of error, telephone interviews


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