Wednesday, October 28, 2015

By wide margin, Republican primary voters see Donald Trump most electable candidate in general election per latest CBS News NY Times poll, Oct. 21-25, 2015

10/27/15, "Donald Trump seen as most electable in GOP field - CBS/NYT poll,", Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Anthony Salvanto, Fred Backus

"Trump continues to be seen by Republican primary voters as the most electable candidate in a general election."... 

Trump 41%
Carson 21%
Bush 10%

"Trump's supporters are more firm in their candidate choice than Carson's. More than half of Trump voters-54 percent say their minds are made up about which candidate to back, compared to 19 percent who are currently backing Carson."...

[The 'fine print' under the headline that went around the world the day before the GOP debates: Per last two paragraphs below about methodology, this poll interviewed two groups of Republicans with two different margins of error. One group was "registered voters who are Republican," for which the margin of error is 7%. Another group was "Republican primary voters," which had a margin of error of 6%.]

"This poll was conducted by telephone October 21-25, 2015 among a random sample of 1,289 adults nationwide, including 1,136 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and The New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.

The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly.

An oversample of registered voters who are Republican was interviewed for a total of 512 interviews with Republican registered voters. The results were then weighted in proportion to the adult population. The margin of error for the Republican registered voters is 7 percentage points.

The margin of error for the sample of 575 Republican primary voters is 6 percentage points.

Comment: The "Republican" outcome was achieved with two different samples of Republicans with two different margins of error. No special methods were used to obtain Democrat results.

No comments: