Pew Poll Question 35, 'no names provided,' Republican and Republican leaning registered voters who say they may vote in the primary are asked to name their own choice for presidential candidate, 9/22-9/27/15:
10/2/15, "Poll: Jeb Falls to 4%," Weekly Standard, Daniel Halper
"The latest Pew poll shows that Jeb Bush has fallen to 4 percent in
the Republican field. Donald Trump leads the field with 25 percent; Ben
Carson is at 16 percent.
Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio are tied for third at 8 percent of the Republican field.
"At this stage of the 2016 presidential campaign, key issues divide
both Republican and Democratic voters, and early candidate preferences
reflect some of these cleavages," writes Pew.
"When Republican and Republican-leaning voters are asked in an
open-ended format (no names provided) for their first choice for the
25% name Donald Trump 16% name Ben
Carson, both Marco Rubio and Carly Fiorina are named by 8%, 6% name Ted
Cruz and 4% choose Jeb Bush. Other candidates are named by 2% or fewer. A
quarter (25%) of potential Republican primary voters do not mention a
first choice today, four months before the first caucuses and
"The survey questioned 421 Republicans in telephone calls from Sept. 22-27 and has a margin of error of 5.5 percent."
10/2/15, "Trump stays on top of GOP field in Pew poll," The Hill, by Bradford Richardson
10/2/15, "Contrasting Partisan Perspectives on Campaign 2016," Pew Research
"The latest national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted Sept.
22-27 among 1,502 adults, including 1,136 registered voters, gauges the
impact of various issue positions on the preferences of possible
Republican and Democratic primary voters....
By far the biggest partisan gap is over the importance of the
environment as a voting issue – 74% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning
registered voters say the environment will be very important; only half
as many Republican and Republican leaning-voters (37%) say the same....
And at this point, Republican voters also are more engaged in the
campaign than they were at this stage in prior campaigns. Roughly
eight-in-ten Republican voters (81%) say they have given a lot or some
thought to the 2016 presidential candidates. That compares with 74% who
gave at least some thought to the candidates in September 2011 and 69%
who did so four years earlier....
In an open-ended question, 25% of possible Republican and
Republican-leaning primary voters say Donald Trump is their first choice
for the GOP nomination....
Overall, 66% of GOP potential primary voters say immigration is a
very important issue in their decision about who to vote for in 2016....84% of those who say they would be more likely to support a
candidate who wants to deport all undocumented immigrants say the issue
is central to their presidential vote. By comparison, among Republicans
who would be less likely to support a candidate who favors deportation
of undocumented immigrants, just 44% say immigration is important to
Trump also garners more support among the nearly one-third of
possible GOP primary voters who would be more inclined to support a
candidate in favor of raising taxes on wealthy Americans. In the survey,
conducted before Trump announced his tax plan on Sept.
28, 35% of those who are more likely to support a candidate who wants
to increase taxes on the wealthy name Trump as their first choice; by
comparison, 16% of those who would be less likely to support a candidate
who backed increasing taxes on the wealthy named Trump as their
Health care is the only other issue in the survey that significantly
more Democrats (82%) than Republicans (66%) view as very important. GOP
voters are more likely than Democrats to rate six other issues,
including the budget deficit, terrorism and the economy, as very
Nearly eight-in-ten Republican and Republican-leaning voters (78%)
say the federal budget deficit is very important, compared with 58% of
Democrats and Democratic leaners. Republicans are 15 percentage points
more likely than Democrats to view terrorism and 12 points more likely
to view foreign policy as very important. More Republicans than
Democrats also see the economy, immigration are very important and
abortion as very important voting issues....
About the survey
The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews
conducted September 22-27, 2015 among a national sample of 1,502 adults,
18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District
of Columbia (525 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone,
and 977 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 560 who had no
landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at
Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research
Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone
random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by
Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English and
Spanish. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly
asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home.
Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who
answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or
older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/
The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an
iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic
origin and nativity and region to parameters from the 2013 Census
Bureau’s American Community Survey and population density to parameters
from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current
patterns of telephone status (landline only, cell phone only, or both
landline and cell phone), based on extrapolations from the 2014 National
Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the
fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater
probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for
household size among respondents with a landline phone. The margins of
error reported and statistical tests of significance are adjusted to
account for the survey’s design effect, a measure of how much efficiency
is lost from the weighting procedures.
The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error
attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of
confidence for different groups in the survey:
Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce
error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Pew Research Center is a nonprofit, tax-exempt 501(c)(3) organization
and a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder."