Friday, July 17, 2015

In April 2011 Trump was at top of three polls: In Gallup Poll Trump was tied for first among all Republicans, first among liberal and moderate Republicans; April 2011 CNN poll Trump tied for first and first among Independents; April 2011 Rasmussen, Trump #1 among Likely GOP Primary Voters

Gallup Poll dates, April 15-20, 2011. Random survey of 1047 Republicans and Republican leaning Independents. Second chart below shows liberals/moderates. CNN article follows.

4/22/2011, "Huckabee, Trump, Romney Set Pace for 2012 GOP Field," Gallup Poll, Jeffrey M. Jones

"Trump leads among liberal and moderate Republicans"

"Donald Trump debuts in a first-place tie in Gallup's latest update of Republicans' preferences for the party's 2012 presidential nomination among potential contenders. Trump ties Mike Huckabee at 16%, with Mitt Romney close behind at 13%. Sarah Palin is the only other potential Republican candidate to earn double-digit support.

The April 15-20 Gallup poll finds Trump leading the field among moderate and liberal Republicans, with 21% supporting him. Huckabee is the leader among conservative Republicans. Huckabee's support and Trump's support differ between ideological groups, while Romney and Palin get similar support from both ideological wings of the party.

Among the lower-ranked candidates, Newt Gingrich's support and Michele Bachmann's support tilt decidedly conservative. Trump is the only potential candidate who shows notably stronger appeal to liberals and moderates than to conservatives within the GOP.


To stay competitive, Trump would need to maintain a decent level of support among conservatives, since they outnumber moderates and liberals by about 2 to 1 among rank-and-file Republicans and Republican leaners. For the same reason, Huckabee's smaller support among moderates and liberals is less of an issue if he maintains his top standing among conservatives.

Trump's Support Would Generally Go to Other Leaders if He Does Not Run

Gallup included Trump as an explicit choice in its monitoring of GOP preferences for the first time in April 15-20 polling. In recent months, Gallup surveys in which Trump was not offered as an explicit choice found 1% or less of Republicans volunteering his name as the potential candidate they are most likely to support for the GOP presidential nomination.

The likelihood of Trump's officially entering the race is still unclear, with many continuing to wonder whether his public discussion about running for president is serious or designed to attract publicity to himself and his reality television show.

The poll asked for Republicans' second choice for the nomination, allowing for an analysis of what preferences would look like without Trump in the field. Under that scenario, most of Trump's support is spread among the other leading candidates, with Huckabee's support climbing to 19%, followed by Romney at 16% and Palin at 13%.

Those numbers are similar to what Gallup has found in recent months, before Trump's inclusion. The most notable change since March is the dip in support for Newt Gingrich, from 10% to 7%, a new low for the former House speaker....


Trump's strong showing in Republican nomination preferences is partly a function of his high profile. Currently, the top vote-getters are generally the best-known Republicans. Lesser-known potential candidates such as Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, and Rick Santorum have more limited support on the nomination ballot at this point.

That is a typical pattern in early nomination preference polls. Once campaigning gets underway in earnest later this year, and after the initial primaries and caucuses next year, some of the currently lesser-known candidates may emerge as stronger candidates, and some of the better-known candidates may fade.

In fact, the leaders in early nomination polls for the last two presidential election cycles -- Joe Lieberman in 2003 and Hillary Clinton in 2007 on the Democratic side and Rudy Giuliani in 2007 on the Republican side -- did not eventually win their party's nomination, with Lieberman and Giuliani having poor showings in the early primaries.

Giuliani's performance aside, the early leader in GOP primaries has usually gone on to win the nomination. The lack of a clear front-runner in this year's field is a distinct departure from prior Republican contests. That situation could still change in the current campaign, since Romney is the only one of the four leading contenders who has taken any formal steps toward running for president.
Survey Methods
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted April 15-20, 2011, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 1,047 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of Republicans, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phones numbers are selected using random digit dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone-only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

View methodology, full question results, and trend data.

For more details on Gallup's polling methodology, visit"


CNN poll dates April 9-10, 2011. 824 people. 385 Republicans, 5% margin of error.

This was CNN's second poll that included Trump, the first being in March 2011. In  one month, Trump jumped 10% and Romney dropped from 18% to 11%:

Trump was also first among Independents in this survey with 24%, see p. 6, 7.5% margin of error.

4/12/2011, "CNN Poll: Trump tied for first in GOP horserace," CNN

"Donald Trump is now tied with Mike Huckabee for first place when Republicans are asked who they support for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012, according to a new national poll.

But while a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday indicates that the real estate mogul and reality TV star has nearly doubled his support since mid-March, it doesn't mean he has smooth sailing ahead. "More than four in ten Republicans say they would not like to see Trump toss his hat in the ring," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Nineteen percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents questioned in the poll say that as of now, they'd be most likely to support Trump for next year's GOP presidential nomination. Trump says he'll decide by June whether he runs for the White House. An equal amount say they'd back Huckabee. The former Arkansas governor and 2008 Republican presidential candidate says he'll decide by later this year if he'll make another bid for the White House.

Twelve percent say they'd support former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, who was the party's 2008 vice presidential nominee, with 11 percent backing former Massachusetts Gov. and 2008 White House hopeful Mitt Romney and the same amount supporting former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Seven percent say they are backing Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, another 2008 presidential candidate, with five percent supporting Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, who enjoys strong backing from many in the Tea Party movement. Everyone else registers in the low single digits.

Trump jumped from 10 percent in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted last month, with Romney dropping from 18 percent to 11 percent.

"Are Republicans switching from Romney to Trump? Some are, but it's a lot more complicated than that, as you would expect with 11 potential hats in the ring," adds Holland. 

"Only one in five Trump supporters say that Romney would be their second choice. It looks like Trump pulls as much support from Gingrich and Palin as from Romney, and Romney's support would go down even if Trump were not in the list of potential candidates." The poll was conducted in the two days before Romney's Monday announcement that he was taking the first formal step towards another bid, by setting up a presidential exploratory committee.

According to the survey, more than seven in ten Republicans say that regardless of whom they would support, they'd like to see Huckabee run for the party's presidential nomination, with two-thirds saying the same thing about Romney.

But that figure drops to 56 percent for Trump, with 43 percent saying they don't want to see him run. By a narrower 53 to 47 percent margin, they would like to see Palin make a bid for the White House, and by a 51 to 45 percent margin, they would like to see Gingrich run.

So what could be behind Trump's rise in the poll?

One contributing factor could be his numerous appearances in the national media. Trump's questioning of whether President Barack Obama was born in the U.S. has put Trump smack in the media spotlight the past two months. 

"If Trump is rising in the polls because of the amount of air time he has gotten, it would be difficult to tell whether his gains are due to what he is saying or simply due to his increased visibility. In a field of more than a dozen potential candidates, all air time is good air time," says Holland. "Most presidential seasons get to a point when the voters are looking for a fresh face. That's what gave us Fred Thompson in 2008 and Wesley Clark in 2004, to name just two examples. If the Republican rank and file has already hit that phase, Trump would be the obvious beneficiary."

But being in the top spot in the polls the year before the election doesn't always end with that candidate winning their party's nomination. Both Sen. Hillary Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani led in the national horserace polls in 2007, with neither ending up taking their party nominations.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted by telephone, with 824 people questioned. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."


April 26, 2011 poll date:

4/28/11, "National GOP Primary Poll: Trump 19% Romney 17% Huckabee 15%," Rasmussen

"The survey of 1,000 Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on April 26, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary....

But no matter which of the top current contenders is the GOP nominee, the president earns between 42% and 49% of the vote. This suggests, as is typically the case when an incumbent seeks reelection, that the race is still shaping up as a referendum on the president.
Trump leads among male GOP primary voters, while female voters prefer Romney as their first choice. 

Similarly, Republican voters favor Trump, but unaffiliated voters who are likely to vote in GOP primaries like Romney best. 

Trump is the top choice of likely primary voters who are Tea Party members with 22% support, compared to 16% support among non-members. Romney is the top choice of those who are not members of the grass roots movement.... 

Huckabee runs strongest among primary voters who are Evangelical Christians with 23% support. Romney leads among other Protestants and is tied with Trump among Catholic voters. Trump has a slight edge among likely primary voters of other faiths. 

The nationally-known businessman and reality TV star leads among most income groups, too. He’s also ahead among married voters and those with children in the home."...


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