.
1/23/14, "New study says ‘robust modeling’ predicted Antarctic sea ice to decrease, but the ice defies modeling," Anthony Watts, WUWT
"A new study recently published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society says robust modeling evidence that the ice should melt
(their words) predicted that Antarctic sea ice would decrease in
response to increased greenhouse gases and the ozone hole. Only one
problem in defiance of the “robust modeling”, the current Antarctic sea
ice has been booming.
This graph from Cryosphere Today via WUWT Sea Ice Reference page shows what I’m talking about:
"Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source" uiuc.edu. Antarctic Sea Ice, "Sea Ice Page," WUWT
(continuing, WUWT): "Here is the paper title and abstract:
Climate System Response to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Recovery
Michael Previdi1,*, Lorenzo M. Polvani1, 2. (Accepted Jan. 20, 2014)
DOI: 10.1002/qj.2330
Abstract
We review what is presently known about the climate system response
to stratospheric ozone depletion and its projected recovery, focusing on
the responses of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Compared to
well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), the radiative forcing of climate due
to observed stratospheric ozone loss is very small: in spite of this,
recent trends in stratospheric ozone have caused profound changes in the
Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate system, primarily by altering the
tropospheric midlatitude jet, which is commonly described as a change in
the Southern Annular Mode. Ozone depletion in the late twentieth
century was the primary driver of the observed poleward shift of the jet
during summer, which has been linked to changes in tropospheric and
surface temperatures, clouds and cloud radiative effects, and
precipitation at both middle and low latitudes. It is emphasized,
however, that not all aspects of the SH climate response to
stratospheric ozone forcing can be understood in terms of changes in the
midlatitude jet.
The response of the Southern Ocean and sea ice to ozone depletion is
currently a matter of debate. For the former, the debate is centered on
the role of ocean eddies in possibly opposing wind-driven changes in the
mean circulation. For the latter, the issue is reconciling the observed
expansion of Antarctic sea ice extent during the satellite era with
robust modeling evidence that the ice should melt as a result of stratospheric ozone depletion (and increases in GHGs).
Despite lingering uncertainties, it has become clear that ozone
depletion has been instrumental in driving SH climate change in recent
decades. Similarly, ozone recovery will figure prominently in future
climate change, with its impacts expected to largely cancel the impacts
of increasing GHGs during the next half-century." via commenter at Sunshine Hours
. .
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