Thursday, December 20, 2012

Dec. 2012 NY Fed major miss, 5th consecutive negative month

12/17/12, "Empire Fed Misses, Prints Negative For Fifth Consecutive Month, Hopium Rise Continues," Zero Hedge

"Whereas last month's negative print in the Empire Fed index (which beat expectations), was attributed to Sandy, it will be difficult to see what attribute can be blamed for this month's major miss, in which the NY Fed just disclosed a -8.1 General Business Conditions update, down from -5.22, and below expectations of -1. 

This was the fifth consecutive month in which the index has printed negative, and the 6th miss of the past 9 reports. The new orders index dropped to -3.7 from +3.08, while the shipments index declined six points to 8.8. At 16.1, the prices paid index indicated that input prices continued to rise at a moderate pace, while the  prices received index fell five points to 1.1, suggesting that selling prices were flat. 

Bad news for anyone that needs positive margins (i.e. everyone). But that's ok, because the Hopium index, i.e., the Six Month Ahead index, which is the only thing those who fail to see what Bernanke's just announced $1 trillion injection means for the economy have to fall back on, rose from 12.88 to 18.66. 

So it is all about the future, forget the present, but whatever you do, don't look at the forward Prices Paid indicator which soared to 52, the highest since May: surely NY corporations are optimistic due to the fact that they 

can now kiss margins goodbye for at least half a year....Full report here."


No comments: