Monday, August 3, 2015

Underlying Chamber of Commerce and GOP E 2016 strategy still in place, ie either Bush or Clinton is fine, but Marist McClatchy says polls shouldn't be used to qualify for debates, large margins of error, differences in methodology not accounted for-The Conservative Treehouse

For example, latest NBC Wall St. Journal poll included only 252 respondents. The Silent Majority will in any case be silenced by Chamber of Commerce purchase of weaponry to splinter the non-Jeb vote in Texas, Ohio, Florida and now Virginia.

8/2/15, "Marist suspends GOP polling ahead of Fox debate," Politico, Hadas Gold

"The Marist Institute of Public Opinion has suspended its polling of the GOP primary field in protest of how polls are being used to determine debate participants.

The poll, which is done in conjunction with McClatchy, is one of the more well-respected national polls regularly conducted. But Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute, told McClatchy that they’re suspending their poll for this week because the debate criteria assumes the polls are more precise than they are in reality. The group still polled on general election match-ups as well as likes and dislikes of the primary candidates, but not who voters would vote for in the GOP primary. 

“It’s a problem when it’s shaping who gets to sit at the table,” Miringoff said.

Miringoff, who has long argued against using national polls for the debate criteria, insisted that polls are meant to shed light on how the electorate is thinking, and that the difference between candidates might be statistically negligible, especially when incorporating margin of error. There’s also the issue of averaging five polls, each of which likely use different methods.

“It’s a bad use of public polls,” Miringoff said. It asks public polls to have a precision that ignores the margin of error. There’s a big distinction made where there’s no statistical difference.”

The first GOP primary debate will be this Thursday, hosted by Fox News. The prime-time debate will feature the candidates who made it into the top 10 based on the average of five recent national polls. Fox has suggested that the criteria would allow for more than 10 candidates on stage, if there were to be a tie. But as it stands, several prominent GOP contenders – including the governor of Ohio, where the debate is being held – are in danger of being left out. The candidates who don't make the prime time debate stage will have the opportunity to participate in a forum hosted by Fox ahead of the debate, airing at 5 p.m.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry are currently battling for the last two spots on Fox News’ debate stage. According to a POLITICO analysis, Christie and Kasich are tied for ninth place, at 3.2 percent. Perry is outside of the top 10, in 11th place, at 2.6 percent.

According to POLITICO Campaigns editor Steven Shepard, the top 10 as of Sunday likely consists of Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Christie and Kasich.

(CNN, which is holding the second Republican primary debate on Sept. 16, has said its debate will be divided into two parts featuring those who rank in the top 10 according to averages of public polling, and the remaining candidates who meet a minimum threshold of 1 percent in public polling.)

Another issue: The campaigns have not been told which national polls are being used to determine the criteria, a fact former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina pointed out in an interview with POLITICO’s Mike Allen on Saturday at the Koch-funded Freedom Partners summer conference.

“Truth is we don’t know what debate we’re in yet and we don’t know what polls are being used,” said Fiorina, who according to recent polls is outside of the top 10. “These national polls mostly measure national name ID. I would also say that at this same point in presidential cycles past, the polls, the pundits, and the money predicted that Jimmy Carter would lose, Ronald Reagan would lose, Bill Clinton would lose, and Barack Obama would lose.”

Kasich, Perry and Christie have all been stepping up their media appearances in an effort to increase their exposure and possibly bump up their poll numbers. 

“We’re supposed to be measuring that which is occurring,” Miringoff told POLITICO last week. “By making the poll numbers determine eligibility to get into the debate, the polls are actually shaping candidate behavior. They are just trying to create a surge to get into the debate. That’s not just putting the cart before the horse. That’s putting the cart before the cart.”

Fox's executive vice president of news Michael Clemente, who is overseeing the debates, said in a statement that people will see the debate criteria was fair when the results are released.

"Common sense would tell you that there is no formal schedule for who releases polls and when. And fairness would tell you that we can't judge any poll until you can see the methodology. When the results are released, everyone will see that common sense and fairness prevailed," Clemente said."

"Steven Shepard and Dylan Byers contributed to this report." via The Conservative Treehouse


Added: No need for muss and fuss of elections, Jeb Bush 12/1/14, sitting next to Rupert Murdoch and Valerie Jarrett at yearly WSJ CEO dinner globalists hold to celebrate themselves:

12/1/2014, "Valerie Jarrett, Rupert Murdoch, and Jeb Bush tonight at John Bussey, Wall St. Journal Associate Editor 

8/2/15, "Sketchy Wall Street Journal/NBC National Poll Sets Stage For Final GOP Debate Qualifications….," The Conservative Treehouse 

"The Wall Street Journal and NBC have published their last national poll prior to the debate qualification cutoff. However, there’s something considerably afoot with the entire construct of the debate field.

In addition, this poll is sketchy at best, because it only includes “252 interviews” within the poll, yet is considered a “substantive poll” used for the qualification of the debate field....

(Via NBC) Days before the first Republican debate, Donald Trump has surged into the national lead in the GOP primary race, with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush following, a new NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll shows.
  • Donald Trump – 19%
  • Scott Walker – 15%
  • Jeb Bush – 14%
  • Ben Carson – 10%
  • Ted Cruz – 9%
  • Mike Huckabee – 6%
  • Rand Paul – 6%
  • Marco Rubio – 5%
  • Chris Christie – 3%
  • Rick Perry – 3%
  • John Kasich – 3%
  • Bobby Jindal – 1%
  • Rick Santorum – 1%
  • Carly Fiorina – *
  • Lindsey Graham – *
  • George Pataki – *
  • Jim Gilmore – *
(LINK) Only the top 10 candidates — calculated by an average of the last five major national polls — will be eligible to participate in Thursday’s FOX News debate in prime time, according to the network’s rules. Incorporating the new NBC/WSJ numbers, NBC estimates that the top ten candidates at this time are:
  • Trump – 19.8 percent
  • Walker – 13.2 percent
  • Bush – 13 percent
  • Paul – 6.4 percent
  • Carson – 6.4 percent
  • Rubio – 6.2 percent
  • Huckabee – 5.8 percent
  • Cruz – 5.8 percent
  • Christie – 3.2 percent
  • Kasich – 3.2 percent
Those missing the cut are:
  • Perry – 2.6 percent
  • Santorum – 1.4 percent
  • Jindal – 1.4 percent
  • Fiorina – 0.6 percent
  • Pataki – 0.6 percent
  • Graham- 0.4 percent
  • Gilmore – 0 percent

Those following along will note the underlying CoC (Chamber of Commerce) strategy playing out with (what I believe to be help from) Fox News Leadership....


Remember the CoC/GOPe  Jeb’s strategy involves splitting the Non-Jeb vote into smaller segments thereby insuring that Jeb Bush can win the overall nomination while only carrying 10-15% of the electorate vote.

Toward this end the CoC/GOPe has quietly financed candidates to keep them in the strategic race. The larger electoral states (Texas, Ohio, Florida) have CoC funded candidates within them ( Perry, Kasich, Rubio ) all with the goal to splinter the Non-Jeb vote.

In addition with the risk of Trump continuing to increase and the looming possibility he will knock over the apple cart, the CoC is now buying additional insurance policies. That’s why Virginia just became important, and so the CoC financed Jim Gilmore to enter the race. Gilmore, like Rubio, is an insurance policy – split Virginia, then endorse Jeb....

IMPORTANT Remember, in order for the plan to work, there must be a candidate from Texas, Ohio, Florida (Large Electoral Counts) and now Virginia, who is NOT JEB; and who can split the NOT JEB vote. This is the lynchpin for CoC/GOPe success.

Now, notice Kasich (Ohio) debate qualifies with 3.2%.  Perry not meeting the cut is not important because he’s an expendable secondary insurance, with dual value, Texas and South Carolina (Perry is valuable in SC hence the CoC funding him there).

In order for the CoC/GOPe 15% strategy to work, Kasich, Rubio and Cruz must be on the ballots in Ohio, Florida and Texas Kasich, Rubio and Cruz (and/or Perry) must be kept in the race. 

Wall Street, The U.S. CoC and The GOPe don’t care which one (Bush or Hillary) wins. The goal is to make sure that these are the only optionsRemember:

If the hierarchy within the republican party loses an election to Democrats it’s only a lost election; they are still there, and still comfortable even in the minority. No biggie.

However, if the hierarchy within the republican party loses an election to Conservatives, they are out of a job.

The only one who can screw up their plan is Donald Trump."



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