Beltway types react physically to realization they might not get to decide the next US president: Luntz: 'My legs are shaking'... Trump 'may be impossible to take down.' Washington Post's Cillizza: 'gulp'.
8/31/15, "Experts Astounded by Trump Polls," Rush Limbaugh
"This Iowa poll shows just how amazing Trump's rise has been....This is a Des Moines Register-Bloomberg Politics of Iowa poll. The real story, according to Cillizza, is contained deep in the poll. In May, when the Des Moines Register last polled, 27% of likely Iowa Hawkeye Cauci goers viewed Trump favorably. Sixty-three percent in the Des Moines Register poll regarded Trump unfavorably back in May. His favorable number now is 61%. His unfavorable 35%.
This is almost an exact reversal, and they can't remember ever having seen this before. Cillizza here at the Washington Post says, "Numbers just don't reverse themselves like that in the space of a few months (or ever). Especially when the politician in question is totally known by the electorate." I'll tell you what. The theory...that the establishment and Republican Party has about how Trump's gonna fade away is slowly but surely blowing up on them. Let me repeat that theory for you.
The GOP establishment theory is that Trump's name recognition is 99% (so he's got no ground to gain) and his favorable-unfavorable is already established, and you can't change that dramatically....Their theory was that...whatever his approval numbers are have peaked....
Well, when this Des Moines Register poll came out that showed Trump did a total reversal from 63 unfavorable to 61 favorable, they are shell-shocked. They have never seen it....Nobody can turn their unfavorable around, especially that big, 63 unfavorable back in May to 61% favorable?...
They even admit in this poll they have never, ever seen this before....You cannot recover from that, except Trump has. Here's Cillizza: "In the almost 20 years -- gulp -- I have spent following politics closer than close, I've never seen anything like the total reversal in how Trump is perceived by Republican voters. It is, quite literally, unprecedented." You know what else bugs 'em about it?...
They haven't had anything to do with it. Trump goes over their heads. Trump reversing his favorables and unfavorables is totally on Trump....If anything, the media has been trashing and tarring and feathering and ripping him. That makes it, as far as media people are concerned, even more earth-shattering. That this guy, without their help, in fact, with them working against him, has totally reversed in a matter of five months, what people think of him....
And it's not just the media that are perplexed. The Republican wizards of smart who concocted this theory on how Trump had peaked and it was just a matter of being patient and wait and he'll blow himself up because he can't get anymore popular than whatever he is now. That was their theory. He's too well known....There's no way he can change. And yet he has."...
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The Iowa Poll, conducted August 23-26 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics
8/30/15, "This Iowa poll shows just how amazing Donald Trump’s rise has been," Washington Post, Chris Cillizza
"Donald Trump leads the Republican 2016 field in a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics of Iowa voters. But that's not the real story.
The real story is contained deeper in the poll. In May, when the Register last polled, 27 percent of likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers viewed Trump favorably while 63 percent regarded him unfavorably. In the new poll, which was released Saturday night, Trump's favorable number is at 61 percent and his unfavorable at 35 percent. Um, WHAT?...
Numbers just don't reverse themselves like that in the space of a few months (or ever). Especially when the politician in question is totally known by the electorate. Once you are both totally known and broadly disliked — as Trump was in May both in Iowa and everywhere else — you are doomed. One hundred times out of one hundred.
That's why I was SO certain of Trump's inability to matter at all in the 2016 race when he, somewhat stunningly, decided to enter it 70-odd days ago. In the almost 20 years — gulp — I have spent following politics closer than close, I've never seen anything like the total reversal in how Trump is perceived by Republican voters. It is, quite literally, unprecedented....
(For a longer treatment of why I was so wrong about Trump, read this.)
It's not something we've seen before. And it may not be something we see again."
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Des Moines Register poll dates Aug. 23-26, 2015. Trump 23, Carson 18, Cruz 8, Walker 8, Bush 6, Rubio 6
8/29/15, "Iowa Poll: Trump blazes to lead; Carson quietly rises," Des Moines Register, Jennifer Jacobs
"A new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll finds that Trump, the flamboyant real estate entrepreneur, has 23 percent support here. But Ben Carson, a soft-spoken retired neurosurgeon, has been a submarine, quietly cruising into second with 18 percent, just 5 percentage points from the front-runner....
All the other candidates are grinding away in the single digits, in this order: Ted Cruz and Scott Walker (both 8 percent), Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio (both 6 percent), Carly Fiorina (5 percent), and Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul (both 4 percent).
"Wow," said Kedron Bardwell, a political science professor at Simpson College. "This poll will have Republican consultants shaking heads in bewilderment. Not since 1992 has anti-establishment sentiment been this strong."
Bringing up the rear are Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal and John Kasich (all with 2 percent); Rick Perry and Rick Santorum (both 1 percent); and Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki (all with less than 1 percent)....
Candidates who are political outsiders don't seem to be just a summer fling, as some analysts had predicted, but a budding long-term relationship five months out from the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses....
They're not just mad at Democrats: Three-fourths are frustrated with Republicans in Congress, with 54 percent unsatisfied and 21 percent mad as hell.
Electing a nonpolitician is "becoming more important as I realize that the Republicans in Washington are no different than the Democrats," said retired engineer Craig Wiegel, 63, of Bettendorf, who participated in the Iowa Poll in May. "They tell you one thing until they're voted in, and then just go along with the Democrats."...
The Iowa Poll of 400 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Aug. 23-26 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points....
Carson beats Trump with Christian conservatives (23 percent to 16 percent) and also with women (20 percent to 16 percent).
Melanie Hobbs, 45, of Sioux City, a stay-at-home mother who home-schools her seven kids, names Carson as her first choice because he's "totally against abortion, and that's one of our biggest issues."
Hobbs also thinks Carson aligns with her thinking on immigration.
"We need to build a fence. We need to stop the influx of illegals," she said....
Trump now viewed favorably by most
In the last Iowa Poll, in May, Trump had the highest unfavorable rating of all the Republicans, back when he was tied for ninth place with 4 percent. Trump has almost completely reversed his rating. Then, 27 percent had positive feelings about him and 63 percent negative. Now, it's 61 percent positive, 35 percent negative.
"People asked if he could right the ship of his upside-down favorable scores. The answer is: Yes, hell yes," said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Register/Bloomberg Iowa Poll.
Poll respondents might not know many specifics about Trump's positions, but they don't really care. The majority of likely Republican caucusgoers say they're willing to put trust in their top candidate to figure out the issues once in office (57 percent).
Among Trump supporters, the feeling is even more widespread (65 percent).
Like Democrats in 2007 who looked for their savior in Barack Obama, Republicans in 2015 seem to be looking for their savior in Trump.
Scott Walker, governor of neighboring Wisconsin, led in two Iowa Polls earlier this year, in January and May. In July, Trump came to Iowa to ask Republicans to toss Walker off the first-place perch, and they complied. "He's got that Type A personality to go out and get what he wants and not back down," said Trump supporter Garrison Reekers, 43, a deputy sheriff from Belle Plaine who considers himself a business-oriented establishment Republican. "There's too much money in politics, and Trump can afford to take care of himself, and then he doesn't have to put on somebody else's agenda."
Large swaths of likely caucusgoers from both parties share Reekers' frustration with the amount of money in politics. Forty percent of Republicans are mad as hell about it, and 61 percent of Democrats, their highest number in that category.
Respondents keeping their options open
The poll is bad news for Walker, who is collapsing in his firewall state, shedding half the support he had in May.
"I don't think he's dynamic enough at this point," said Christian conservative respondent Julie Roe, 47, of Eldora, who works in ag marketing.
Roe likes Huckabee and Cruz, and says she would never caucus for Bush, because "all he wants to do is make government bigger" and he has "no concept of how the real world lives" because he "has never lived anything close to a middle class life."
She also said she detests political dynasties.
Bush continues to struggle in Iowa. Only 45 percent of likely caucusgoers have favorable feelings about him; 50 percent view him negatively. Bush has yet to spend a dime on TV advertising here, but his super PAC launches ads in September, hoping to use its financial advantage to tell the story of Bush's conservative record to a larger audience.
Politics watchers also might be surprised to see Huckabee and Fiorina so far back. He's a previous winner of the Iowa caucuses, in 2008, and she's hot on the national scene after a widely praised national debate performance a month ago....
Ten percent of likely GOP caucusgoers are uncommitted or not sure of their first choice. Every voter quoted in this article is keeping an open mind, expressing willingness to swap to a different first-choice candidate....
Poll respondent Barbara Olson, 63, of Burlington says Trump is now her first choice because of what he has said about stopping illegal immigration and repealing Obamacare, and because he's "a very good, savvy businessman.""...
"About the poll"
"The Iowa Poll, conducted August 23-26 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 400 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 404 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 2,975 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state's voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list. Interviews were administered in English.
Questions based on the subsamples of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 400 likely Republican caucus attendees each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error."
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8/25/15, "Trump may be 'impossible to take down,' top Republican pollster says," New Jersey Advance Media, Claude Brodesser-Akner, for NJ.com
ALEXANDRIA, Va.. "A new focus group commissioned by GOP pollster Frank Luntz shows Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump is virtually invulnerable to attack by rival 2016 candidates and the media, leading Luntz to say that it is now "totally conceivable" that Trump will become the Republican Party's nominee for president....
"This is a different cat," Luntz added. "It's not like Ross Perot in 1992, where people were simply unhappy with the two major parties; they're choosing Trump affirmatively. Honestly, my legs are shaking looking at these numbers. All those people who think he's going to implode are wrong. He's not going away."
Assembled in a room behind mirrored glass in an Alexandria, Va. office building, 29 current and former Trump supporters held forth on what they like and dislike about the controversial real estate tycoon, who owns three New Jersey golf courses and once owned three Atlantic City casinos.
Most notably, the intensity of the group's support for Trump was matched only by their dislike of establishment GOP candidates and politics as usual. At one point, a woman named Rhiannon explained her support of Trump by lamenting that "it appears that there's only one party." A whopping 25 of 29 participants in the focus group immediately and heartily agreed with her.
"Nobody is listening to us," echoed another supporter identified only as 'Suzanne.' "(But) he's listening to us, he knows what we think and he's successful just like we want to be.""...
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