8/12/15, "New Poll: Trump Leads Post-Debate; Fiorina, Rubio, Carson, and Cruz Rise," medium.com/@EchelonInsights
"Before last week’s Fox News debate, we polled 860 likely Republican primary voters
using Google Consumer Surveys. Today, we’re releasing our post-debate
survey. At the top, the race remains basically unchanged. Donald Trump
is in the #1 spot, taking 29% support. But there’s been significant
movement elsewhere in the top tier.
Compared to our pre-debate
survey, Trump drops 3 points. Gaining in support are Carly Fiorina (+6),
Marco Rubio (+4), Ben Carson (+3), and Ted Cruz (+2). Scott Walker and
Jeb Bush dropped 5 points and 4 points respectively, while other
candidates come in within a percentage point of their previous showing.
How
much of this movement was attributable to the debate itself? We asked
respondents whether they had watched the debate (55% said they had) or
watched coverage (20% said they had), or had not watched at all (25%).
We then broke down responses on the ballot test by these levels of
viewership. Here’s what we found:
Amongst the candidates who
posted gains in our post-debate survey, Rubio, Fiorina, and Cruz polled
higher among debate viewers than non-viewers, while results on this
score were mixed for Ben Carson. In Fiorina’s case, the difference was
stark: she ties for 2nd at 12% amongst debate viewers, while taking 4%
amongst non-viewers. It now seems clear that her exclusion from the main
debate stage was fortuitous, giving her a chance to stand out in the 5
p.m. debate. If these trends continue, she’s likely to make the main
stage in the September 26th CNN debate.
We
also took a look at support for candidates by ideology. In the survey,
participants were asked to rate themselves, from very liberal to very
conservative, on both social and economic issues. Those who rated
themselves conservative or very conservative on both sets of issues were
classified as Traditional Conservatives (47% of respondents), while
those who rated themselves from slightly conservative to liberal on both
social and economic issues were grouped as Centrists (32% of
respondents). People who were conservative or very conservative on
economic issues but no more than slightly conservative on social issues
were grouped as Libertarians (17% of respondents). A further 5% were
conservative or very conservative on social issues, and no more than
slightly conservative on economic issues; this group was too small to
allow for meaningful analysis.
Post-debate, Trump leads across the three main groups, but the
configuration of candidates beneath him changes by group. Amongst
Traditional Conservatives, Ted Cruz runs second (at 13%), followed by
Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina at 11%. Among Centrists, Jeb Bush runs
second at 12%, with no other candidate breaking double digits. Amongst
Libertarians, Bush and Rubio are tied for second place at 11%. Rand Paul
runs behind in this group, at 7%.
We also updated the scatterplot
we used in our first survey to plot the ideology of supporters of
various candidates. Ted Cruz is the major candidate with the most
socially and fiscally conservative supporters, while Chris Christie’s
supporters are now left-of-center on social issues.
Another
important way at looking at the race at this early stage is by asking
people who they think is likely to win the nomination. Here too, Donald
Trump comes out on top, at 29%, but it’s a closer race between him and
Jeb Bush, at 20%. Coming in third is Marco Rubio; 9% of respondents
believe he will win the GOP nomination.
We see a clear ideological divide in assessments of Bush’s chances, and
to some extent Trump’s. Traditional Conservatives are more than twice as
likely to name Trump as the likely winner over any other candidate.
Centrists are slightly more likely to believe Trump rather than Bush
will win the nomination (29% to 25%), and Libertarians are most likely
to name Bush the likely winner, at 30%, to 23% for Trump."...
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