Poll dates W-Th, 8/19-8/20/15, Likely Voters
8/21/15, "Trump Change," Rasmussen Reports
"Our latest national telephone survey finds that 57% of Likely Republican
Voters now think Trump is likely to be the Republican presidential
nominee next year, with 25% who say it’s Very Likely....
Among all likely voters, 49% think Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee, including 17% who say it’s Very Likely....
Among all likely voters, 49% think Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee, including 17% who say it’s Very Likely....
Forty-two percent (42%) of Republican voters say Trump is unlikely to be their party’s standard-bearer next year....
The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on August 19-20, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology....
Voters agree with Trump on the need to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. They also believe overwhelmingly that illegal immigrants convicted of a felony in this country should be deported. Trump made both proposals in a policy paper he released last weekend that calls for getting tough on illegal immigration....
Most voters agree with Trump that illegal immigration increases serious crime in this country.
The reaction to his comments also increased media coverage of the murder of a young woman in San Francisco by an illegal immigrant from Mexico who said he came to that city because it does not enforce immigration laws. Most voters now want to get tough on so-called “sanctuary cities” that refuse to enforce these laws."...
(Demographic details are subscription).
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Trump immigration reform positions released 8/16/15:
Donald J Trump.com: Immigration Reform That Will Make America Great Again
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Added: Trump is expanding the electorate, attracting "a broad, demographically and ideologically diverse coalition" as well as "those with little history of voting."...
8/22/15, "Why Donald Trump Won’t Fold: Polls and People Speak," NY Times, Michael Barbaro, Nate Cohn, Jeremy W. Peters
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| Fri. 8/21/15, Alabama |
"He leads among the most frequent, likely voters, even though his appeal is greatest among those with little history of voting....
A review of public polling, extensive interviews with a host of his supporters in two states and a new private survey that tracks voting records all point to the conclusion that Mr. Trump has built a broad, demographically and ideologically diverse coalition....
The unusual character of Mr. Trump’s coalition by no means guarantees his campaign will survive until next year’s primaries, let alone beyond....
His
support is not tethered to a single issue or sentiment: immigration,
economic anxiety or an anti-establishment mood. Those factors may have
created conditions for his candidacy to thrive, but his personality,
celebrity and boldness, not merely his populism and policy stances, have
let him take advantage of them.
Tellingly,
when asked to explain support for Mr. Trump in their own words, voters
of varying backgrounds used much the same language, calling him “ballsy”
and saying they admired that he “tells it like it is” and relished how
he “isn’t politically correct.”...
Irregular
voters, like Norman Kas-mikha, 41, a grocer from Shelby Township,
Mich., represent a real opportunity for the Republican Party, which is
determined to retake the White House in 2016 after losing the last two
campaigns.
“Right now I don’t have a second choice,” Mr. Kas-mikha said. “They all blend in to me. It’s Donald Trump — and everyone else.”
“My second choice,” he added, “might be staying at home.”"
Image caption: "Donald J. Trump, leading the Republican field in recent polls, drew a crowd on Friday for an event in Mobile, Ala. Credit
Jeff Haller for The New York Times"
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Comment: On the other hand, Trump could self-destruct at any moment. Like right now, it's being reported that Establishment GOP consultant and longtime Trump insider Roger Stone is wandering around making multiple media appearances defending Trump's views, "unofficially" (as Stone is an ex-employee) holding inappropriate meetings and making embarrassing statements on behalf of Trump but "not authorized" by him. Stone is pictured in the article doing an extremely disturbing impression of Richard Nixon only a year ago. Assuming the report is accurate, Trump now looks like the joke everyone said he would be. This is aside from the fact that Ben Carson would be a terrible choice for Trump's running mate:
8/20/15, "Is Trump looking for a vice-president already? He talks to Cruz - and ex-aide is seen with Ben Carson's right-hand man," Daily Mail, by
Francesca Chambers, White House Correspondent For Dailymail.com
"Leading Republican candidate for the White House Donald Trump hasn't officially begun scouting running mates - the first primary is still six months away.
Two of his 2016 competitors come to mind for the position, however: Ben Carson and Ted Cruz....
An
ex-aide to Trump, Roger Stone, was also seen meeting with Carson's
campaign chief Jake Menges yesterday in New York. Stone says he did not
set up the meeting at the behest of Trump, however.
Stone told
DailyMail.com that he believes in 'citizen action' and met with Menges
of his own volition because he thinks Carson would be a good fit on a
Trump ticket.
He stressed that the meet-up was 'not authorized' by Trump and he no longer works for the real estate mogul.
'I love him. I love him,' he said, 'but I'm not working for him.'
Trump
and Stone parted ways two weeks ago over disagreements about the
direction of the campaign. Stone says he resigned. Trump says he was
fired. Whatever the case, the end result is that Stone is now a free
agent.
'I answer only to myself,' he said today.
Even though he is no longer affiliated with Trump's campaign for president, he still wants to see him in the Oval Office.
He's
stepped in as an unofficial surrogate for Trump, making multiple media
appearances this week to defend his controversial immigration plan that
would end birthright citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants.
'I will go anywhere, do anything I can to promote the election of Donald Trump,' he told DailyMail.com.
Trump, he says, 'is the only man with the fortitude and the vision and the passion to take on a corrupted political system.'
'The
system's broken, both parties are in on it. Our government's controlled
by the special interests,' the ex-lobbyist and alum of Richard Nixon's
administration said. 'I've seen the system up close, it's broken. It's
corrupted.'
Stone,
who noted that he's had a hand in eight presidential elections, has
taken it upon himself to begin vetting a No. 2 for Trump.
'I
don't think that Donald has thought about a running mate yet, and
frankly it would be presumptuous for him to do so,' Stone said. 'He's
focused on winning the nomination, and then winning the election.'
Still, he added, 'it's never too early to start thinking about the big picture.'...
The Carson campaign did not return
DailyMail.com's request for comment on the matter, but Carson, a retired
neurosurgeon who hails from Baltimore, Maryland, and has never held
political office before, either, has said he'd likewise consider adding
Trump to his team should he become the nominee....
Cruz has
had nothing but praise for Trump throughout the campaign and is backing
his immigration plan. He said yesterday on the Michael Medved radio show
that he too believed that 14th amendment's guarantee of automatic
citizenship should be limited to children who parents are legal U.S.
residents. 'I
welcome Donald Trump's immigration proposal. Virtually every element in
the proposal he submitted is contained within legislation that I filed
years ago in the Untied States Senate.'"...
Image caption: "Former Richard Nixon aide Roger Stone, pictured here in his office a
year ago, met yesterday with Ben Carson's chief campaign hand. 'It's
never too early to start thinking about the big picture,' he told
DailyMail.com"
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