Monday, August 10, 2015

Trump remains #1 in Reuters poll after Fox GOP debate. Reuters asks if Trump is making 'a mockery of the political process.' Reuters knows credit for this goes entirely to Fox News and RNC who have carefully scripted every detail of the 'process'

In Reuters post-debate poll, Donald Trump remained number one at 24%. Jeb Bush scored only 12%, falling 5 points from 17% pre-debate-8/10/15

8/10/15, "GOP Debate and 2016 Ballots," Ipsos Poll conducted for Reuters

Poll dates, Aug. 6-10, 2015, online, 278 R, 111 Indep.

Question 11 on page 7 of the poll was a special group of questions only about Mr. Trump, such as: Do you feel Mr. Trump's participation: 

"Made a mockery of the political process?" 

If "mockery" is happening it's by the RNC and Fox News who designed every detail of the ongoing  "process." At least ten candidates (none Mr. Trump) are key parts of their "process," including Jeb Bush, Jim Gilmore (who is one of the 17 and appeared in the early Fox debate though Reuters doesn't list his name on Question One), Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, Kasich, Rick Perry, George Pataki, and Chris Christie. Following are 4 of 6 parts of Question 11 on page 7, asked only about Trump:

"Do you personally agree of disagree that Donald Trump's participation in the (Fox TV) debate..."

1. "Challenged the Establishment?"
2. "Added comedy to an otherwise boring even?" 
3. "Made a mockery of the political process?" 
5. "Meant something offensive was said?"

Reuters Ipsos poll, Question 11, page 7: (click to enlarge)

Reuters poll Question One, p. 1, showed Trump the leader at 24, to the question, "If the 2016 Republican presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote?" (page 1)

It's only one poll, but it's interesting to see some of the questions.

Ipsos Reuters article accompanying poll:

8/10/15, "Ipsos/Reuters Poll: 2016 GOP Post-Debate Reactions," Ipsos

"In the Reuters/Ipsos 2016 Republican Primary horse race, Donald Trump holds the lead in our post-debate polling (currently with 24% of Republicans, unchanged from pre-debate)....

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from August 6 (post-debate) -- 10, 2015. For the survey, a sample of 823 Americans ages 18+, including 346 who identify as Democrats, 278 who identify as Republican, and 111 who identify as Independent were interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for all, including 6.0 percentage points for Democrats; 6.7 percentage points for Republicans; 10.6 percentage points for Independents."...

Topline Results (poll questions)


Reuters article summarizing poll (doesn't include link to poll questions):

8/10/15, "Exclusive: Trump's Republican support holds strong post-debate - Reuters/Ipsos poll," Andy Sullivan, Steve Holland

"There is no sign that Donald Trump's raucous first presidential debate is hurting his support among party voters, with the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showing he still has a big lead over his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination. Trump's staying power is defying predictions of political doom....

Trump led the party's 17-strong 2016 presidential field with the backing of 24 percent of Republican voters, unchanged from before Thursday's televised debate, the Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

His closest rival, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, trails at 12 percent, down [5 points] from 17 percent before the debate. No other candidate earned more than 8 percent in the online poll, conducted between the end of the debate and Sunday."... 


In another post-debate poll, Trump leads GOP field at 32 points, up 7 points over last week. Nearest rival is Jeb Bush at 11 points. Poll dates 8/7-8/9, 746 R or R-leaners. Crosstabs 

8/10/15, "Trump’s Lead Grows After Debate, Controversy," Reid Wilson,
"The Morning Consult national tracking poll was conducted Aug. 7 through Aug. 9 among a national sample of 2,029 registered voters. The poll, conducted online, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. The subsample of 746 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.59 percentage points. The subsample of 896 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.27 percentage points....

Real estate magnate Donald Trump’s lead over the Republican field grew in the several days after his performance at the first GOP presidential debate, according to a new Morning Consult survey....Trump leads the Republican field with 32 percent of the vote, up 7 percentage points over last week’s Morning Consult tracking poll. Trump’s nearest GOP rival, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, clocked in at 11 percent.

No other Republican contender reaches double digits retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson sits in third place at 9 percent, followed by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 6 percent....Thursday’s debate, viewed by a record-setting 24 million people, did not provide a boost for any other leading Republican contender."...via The Hill

Crosstabs of Morning Consult poll

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