Poll dates, Aug. 7-11, 544 Iowa Republicans. Poll results
8/12/15, "CNN / ORC Poll: Trump tops in Iowa as Scott Walker drops," CNN Polling Director,
 |
| Chart from Trump twitter, 8/12 |
Trump
tops the field with 22% and is the candidate seen as best able to
handle top issues including the economy, illegal immigration and
terrorism. He's most cited as the one with the best chance of winning
the general election, and, by a wide margin, as the candidate most
likely to change the way things work in Washington.
Retired
neurosurgeon Ben Carson follows Trump in overall preference with 14%,
bumping Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who had held the top spot in most
recent public polling in Iowa, down to third place with 9%. Walker is
nearly even with a slew of other candidates.
Previous public polls had found Carson with around 10% support, but most were released before last week's debate. A Suffolk University poll
of Iowa Republicans released Tuesday found Carson's closing remarks to
be the most memorable moment for those who watched the prime time
debate. [For those interested, Carson's closing remarks included, "I'm the only one to separate Siamese twins."]
Texas
Sen. Ted Cruz follows the top three at 8%, with businesswoman Carly
Fiorina and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee both at 7%. Former
Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is tied at 5% with senators Rand Paul and Marco
Rubio. The rest of the field stands at 3% or less.
Two-thirds
of Iowa Republicans who are likely to attend the caucus say they're
still trying to decide whom to support. Among the 34% who say they have
made up their mind or are leading toward a candidate, Trump's lead
grows, and the top of the field shifts. Among that group, 33% back
Trump, 14% Carson, 11% Fiorina, and 9% each back Paul and Walker. Cruz
follows at 7%, and all others have less than 5% support.
But
Trump's advantages are not universal. He faces a large gender gap:
While holding a 15-point lead over his nearest competitor among men (27%
Trump to 12% Walker, Carson at 10%), he trails among women (20% back
Carson, 15% Trump, and 11% support Fiorina). He runs behind Carson and
about even with Walker and Cruz among those who describe themselves as
"very conservative" (25% Carson, 15% each Cruz and Walker, 12% Trump),
and he runs even with Carson among evangelical Christians (18% each
Trump and Carson, 12% Cruz, 11% Huckabee, 10% Walker).
Both
evangelical Christians and those who call themselves very conservative
make up a substantial share of Iowa caucus-goers. According to entrance
polls conducted for CNN, half of caucus attendees considered themselves
"very conservative" in 2012, while born-again Christians were 57% of
participants. Forty-three percent of 2012 Republican caucus attendees
were women.
Trump's support in Iowa
rests on perceptions that he would do the best job handling several top
issues and that he is most electable. He tops the list by wide margins
when GOP caucus-goers are asked which candidate they trust most to
handle the economy, illegal immigration and terrorism. And Trump holds
his biggest advantage as the candidate who "is most likely to change the
way things work in Washington," 44% say Trump can do that, no other
candidate hits double-digits.
But while
Trump falters somewhat on representing the values of Republicans, no
clear leader emerges on that question, with nine candidates at 5% or
higher: 14% Carson, 12% Trump, 11% Huckabee, 10% Cruz, 9% Walker, 6%
each Bush and Paul, and 5% each Fiorina and Jindal. And he falls well
below the lead when voters are asked which candidate would best handle
abortion; 17% each say Carson and Huckabee would be best on that score,
7% each choose Bush and Trump, 6% each Cruz, Paul and Walker, and Rubio
stands at 5%.
The reason behind Walker's tumble from the
top of the pack in Iowa may be in those issue questions: Although 11%
see him as the most electable in the field, he hasn't impressed on the
issues. Walker falls below 10% on each issue tested, with his best
showing the 8% who think he would best handle the economy.
When
asked to name the issue that will be most important in deciding which
candidate to support for president next year, Iowa Republicans likely to
attend the presidential caucus most frequently cite an economic issue,
with 33% naming an economy-related concern, 20% a foreign policy issue,
14% immigration, 8% social issues, and 6% government spending, taxes or
the national debt. Among those who call the economy their top concern,
39% say they most trust Trump to handle it, 12% Fiorina, and 11% Walker.
And those who cite a foreign policy concern also put Trump atop their
list of trusted candidates for handling terrorism, but by a smaller
margin: 17% trust Trump, 10% Cruz, 9% Paul.
The
poll was conducted August 7-11 among a statewide sample of 2,014 Iowa
adults, 544 of whom were identified as likely Republican caucusgoers
based on questions about whether they are registered to vote, likelihood
of voting, past voting behavior and interest in the campaign. The
margin of sampling error for results among the sample of likely
Republican caucus attendees is plus or minus 4 percentage points." via Free Rep.
Image at top of CNN poll results from Donald J. Trump twitter
...........................
8/12/15, "Poll: Trump leads in Iowa as Walker fades," The Hill, Jonathan Easley
8/12/15, "Poll: Trump leads in Iowa as Walker fades," The Hill, Jonathan Easley
...................................
No comments:
Post a Comment