Sunday, August 9, 2015

Trump beats Bush in Florida poll by 6 points, 26.1 to 20, even beats Bush in Miami, July 18-28, 2015, 1902 registered Florida Republicans, 2.2 margin of error, St. Pete Polls

Poll dates: Saturday, July 18, 2015 to Tuesday, July 28, 2015:

7/28/15, "Subject: Florida Statewide Republican Primary Election survey,"

"Web-based email polling system"

"This poll of 1,902 Florida likely Republican primary voters was conducted from Saturday, July 18, 2015 to Tuesday, July 28, 2015. This poll used the registered voter lists supplied by the state of Florida as of June 18, 2015. The sample of voters that were contacted included random samples of registered Republican voters within the boundaries of the state of Florida. The issues surveyed included questions related to the 2016 Republican Florida primary election."...

Methodology: 2.2% margin of error


"If vote were today, whom would you vote for?"

Trump 26.1
Bush 20"...

Trump beats both Bush and Rubio in Miami:

p. 5, "Media Market Breakdown"

Miami, 280 responses, Bush 23.2%, Trump 25.4%, Rubio 15%
via The Conservative Treehouse


A second recent but smaller Florida poll, 8/3/15, shows Trump ahead of Bush by one point with likely GOP voters.

The one day telephone survey, Mon., 8/3/15, included 547 likely Florida Republican primary voters and has a 4.1% margin of error. Sponsored by Fla. Times Union and Fox tv stations in Orlando and Tampa. News article contains no link to original poll:

Aug. 5, 2015, "Poll of Florida GOP voters shows Jeb Bush, Donald Trump in close battle for Florida," Florida Times Union (Jacksonville), Tia Mitchell

"A new poll of likely Florida Republican primary voters shows Donald Trump in a virtual dead heat with former Gov. Jeb Bush. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio lagged far behind with single digits.

The poll was conducted on behalf of The Florida Times-Union, and two FOX affiliates — WTVT-TV Channel 13 in Tampa Bay and WOFL-TV Channel 5 in Orlando — by Opinion Savvy along with InsiderAdvantage, a company that is affiliated with Times-Union parent company Morris Communications.

The survey of 547 Floridians concluded that 27 percent supported businessman and TV personality Trump and 26 percent backed Bush. That is within a plus-or-minus 4.1 percent margin of error.

Rubio polled at just 7 percent. That puts him in the second tier of candidates that also includes retired Dr. Ben Carson, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Each had support that fell between 6 and 8 percent.... 

The head of the polling company, conservative columnist Matthew Towery, said Bush performed better against Trump in Florida than he did in many other states."...

The survey was conducted using mobile and landline phones Aug. 3."...

The Florida GOP primary is March 15, 2016.


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