Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Trump leads GOP field with 23% in Missouri PPP post debate poll, more than double Jeb Bush at 11%. Trump has support in all age groups, also leads with independents-PPP poll, August 7-9

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Poll dates: Aug. 7-9, 440 Republican primary voters, 80% telephone, 20% internet

8/12/15, "Trump Up Big in Missouri; GOP Hopefuls Lead Clinton in State," Public Policy Polling, Tom Jensen

"PPP's new Missouri poll provides more evidence that Donald Trump emerged from the first debate at least  momentarily unscathed. He leads the Republican field in the state with 23% to 11% each for Jeb Bush and Ben Carson, 10% for Mike Huckabee, 9% for Ted Cruz, 8% for Scott Walker, 7% for Carly Fiorina, 6% for Marco Rubio, and 4% each for John Kasich and Rand Paul. That makes for a very clean top ten in Missouri because everyone else is at 1% or less- Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum all get 1%, George Pataki is at less than 1%, and Jim Gilmore and Lindsey Graham have literally no supporters.

What really stands out in the numbers is how broad Trump's support is- he leads with moderates (25%), 'somewhat liberal' voters (23%), and 'very conservative' voters (20%) alike. He is a lot stronger with men (30%) but he leads with women too at 16%. He's particularly strong with young voters (32%) but also leads with middle aged voters (21%) and seniors (17%). Every group we track he has the lead with on this poll....
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Missouri does present more evidence of the threat a Donald Trump independent bid could pose to the Republican Party though. He actually beats out Jeb Bush as a third party candidate, getting 30% to 29% for Bush with Clinton leading the way at 34%. Trump leads with independents at 37%, and gets 39% of Republicans and 15% of Democrats as well.
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“Donald Trump’s lead in Missouri is the largest we’ve found for him anywhere we’ve polled to date,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “There’s no indication in our polling yet that all of the controversy over the weekend hurt him at all."
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Public Policy Polling surveyed 859 voters from August 7th to 9th including 440 Republican primary voters and 352 Democratic primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.3%, for the Republican primary voters it’s +/-4.7%, and for the Democratic primary voters it’s +/-5.2%. 80% of participants responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet."via Free Rep.




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