Tuesday, August 11, 2015

At height of ObamaCare shutdown in Sept. 2013, Ted Cruz was top choice for 2016 President among Republican primary voters per PPP poll, jumping 8 points from July 2013. 'Cruz has more credibility with GOP base than folks who've been leading the party for years,' said PPP, 9/27/2013

Sept. 2013 PPP national poll. Cruz's 21-hour stand against ObamaCare funding began on Tuesday and spilled into Wednesday (9/24 and 9/25). PPP conducted its poll Wednesday and Thursday, 9/25-9/26/13:

9/27/2013, "Cruz emerges as GOP leader," Public Policy Polling

"PPP's newest national poll finds Ted Cruz is now the top choice of Republican primary voters to be their candidate for President in 2016. He leads the way with 20% to 17% for Rand Paul, 14% for Chris Christie, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% each for Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, 4% for Bobby Jindal, and 3% each for Rick Santorum and Scott Walker. 

Cruz has gained 8 points since our last national 2016 poll in July while everyone else has more or less stayed in place. He's made himself the face of a government shutdown over Obamacare, and the Republican base supports that by a 64/20 margin. It's not surprising that Republicans identifying as 'very conservative' support a shutdown 75/10, but even the moderate wing of the party supports it by a 46/36 margin.

Cruz is leading the GOP field based especially on his appeal to 'very conservative' primary voters, who he gets 34% with 17% for Rand Paul and 12% for Paul Ryan. Voters who fall into that ideological group make up the largest portion of the Republican electorate at 39%. With moderates Cruz gets only 4% with Christie leading at 34% to 12% for Jeb Bush and 10% for Marco Rubio, but they only account for 18% of GOP voters and thus aren't all that relevant to Cruz's prospects for winning a Republican nomination.

Our numbers also suggest that Cruz is now viewed more broadly as the leader of the Republican Party. When asked whether they trust Cruz or GOP leader Mitch McConnell more, Cruz wins out 49/13. When it comes to who's more trusted between Cruz and Speaker John Boehner, Cruz has a 51/20 advantage. And when it comes to Cruz and 2008 GOP nominee and Senate colleague John McCain, Cruz wins out 52/31. He now has more credibility with the GOP base than the folks who have been leading the party for years....

Full results here"


Sept. 2013, TPM: Cruz's 21-hour stand against ObamaCare funding began on Tuesday and spilled into Wednesday. PPP conducted its survey on Wednesday and Thursday:

9/27/2013, "Poll: Ted Cruz Is Now The Top Choice For GOP Primary Voters In 2016," Talking Points Memo, Tom Kludt

"Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) hasn't even been in Washington for a full year, but Republicans already appear eager to tap him as the party's next presidential nominee.

The latest survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling released Friday found Cruz as the top choice for 2016 among Republicans nationwide. With 20 percent support, Cruz narrowly edged Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), who claimed the support of 17 percent of GOP primary voters. New Jersery Gov. Chris Christie (R) trailed the two junior senators with 14 percent, followed by 11 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R). Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) each picked up 10 percent.

Cruz has asserted himself as a legitimate 2016 contender in recent months, gaining eight points among Republicans nationally since PPP's previous survey in July and emerging as the face of the party's conservative wing. According to PPP, Cruz won 34 percent among "very conservative" primary voters, easily outpacing Paul (17 percent) and Ryan (12 percent).

Cruz's 21-hour talkathon to protest funding for Obamacare began on Tuesday and spilled into Wednesday, meaning that the poll included at least some respondents who were aware of the stunt.

PPP conducted its survey on Wednesday and Thursday using automated interviews with 743 GOP primary voters. It has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points."


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