Page 15: Trump 37%, Bush and Carson 9%. Page 17: Clinton 43%, Trump 42%. Trump crosstabs p. 113-116.
8/31/15, "Trump, Clinton Lead Primary Matchups. Bush Ties Carson for Runner Up," Morning Consult, Reid Wilson
"Real estate mogul Donald Trump has broadened his lead over his rivals
for the Republican presidential nomination, a new poll shows, as more
Republican voters begin to see the bombastic billionaire in a favorable
The Morning Consult survey
shows Trump leading among Republicans and Republican-leaning
independents with 37 percent of the vote, compared with just nine
percent for the second-place finishers, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R)
and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R)
are tied for the next spot with six percent. Former Wisconsin Gov. Scott
Walker (R) claims 5 percent of the vote, barely ahead of Sens. Ted Cruz
(R-Texas) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) at 4 percent.
Ahead of next month’s second Republican debate, to be aired by CNN,
the poll finds former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina edging Ohio Gov.
John Kasich (R) for the 10th and final position on the debate stage.
Fiorina’s campaign has taken issue with CNN’s methodology, which would,
for the moment, leave her out of 10th place.
Though earlier polls have shown Trump building a broad coalition, a
slight gender gap is beginning to emerge. More male voters, 41 percent,
say they back Trump than female voters, 32 percent. Trump also gets a
disproportionate amount of support from those without a college
education, from Republicans in urban areas and from voters who say
national security is their most important issue.
(See full crosstabs here)
Trump is almost universally known among registered voters, though
just 42 percent say they have a favorable opinion of him. But among
self-identified Republicans, 66 percent say they view Trump favorably,
markedly better than any other candidate seeking the party’s nomination.
By contrast, just 52 percent of Republicans say they view Bush
Bush’s unfavorable rating among Republican voters, 36 percent, is higher than the 32 percent who say they see Trump unfavorably.
Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, former Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton appears to have arrested her summer slump.
Clinton leads the Democratic field with 52 percent of the vote, 29
points ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)....
Among all registered voters, Clinton continues to lead all of her
potential Republican rivals, though narrowly. She leads Bush by only a
43 percent to 41 percent margin, and she has just a one-point edge — 43
percent to 42 percent — over Trump. Clinton leads Paul, Walker and Rubio
by wider margins....
Only 29 percent of registered voters say the country is headed in the
right direction, while 71 percent say the country is headed off on the
wrong track. That’s higher than the 65 percent who said the country is
on the wrong track in a July Morning Consult survey.
The new Morning Consult survey polled 2,015 registered voters between
August 28-30, including subsamples of 769 Republicans and
Republican-leaning independents and 913 Democrats and Democratic-leaning
independents. The full sample carried a margin of error of plus or
minus 2 percent. The margin of error for the Republican sample is plus
or minus 3.5 percent, while the Democratic sample carried a margin of
error of plus or minus 3.2 percent." via Free Rep.
Poll conducted via online interviews, Aug. 28-30, 2015. Image above from Morning Consult
Comment: Re: Total Trump favorability of 66 among Republicans mentioned above in Morning Consult's press release, the poll pages linked include responses from groups of Republicans separately. Perhaps the total of 66 is listed somewhere within the poll but so far I haven't found it.