Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Sorry, Haley Barbour, Rasmussen poll finds both Chris McDaniel and Thad Cochran would easily beat Democrat Travis Childers in 2014 US Senate race from Mississippi. Two polls since McDaniel's June 3 primary win over Cochran show McDaniel increasing his lead

Rasmussen Poll finds either Mississippi Republican Senate primary candidate would easily beat Democrat Travis Childers. In late March 2014 McDaniel led Childers 47-35, Cochran 48-31. Two polls since June 3 primary show McDaniel increasing his lead over Cochran.

3/31/14, "Mississippi Senate: Cochran (R) 48%, Childers (D) 31%," Rasmussen Reports

"Both Republican contenders have a solid lead over former Democratic Congressman Travis Childers in Rasmussen Reports' first look at the U.S. Senate race in Mississippi.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Mississippi voters finds longtime Senator Thad Cochran leading Childers by 17 points - 48% to 31%. Nine percent (9%) like some other candidate in the race, and 12% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Mississippi was conducted on March 26-29, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology."


Added: Rasmussen found Chris McDaniel leading Childers 47-35 in late March. You need to be a Rasmussen subscriber to get the McDaniel number, which I am. The free report states "both Republicans" have "solid lead" over Childers. The specific Cochran number was in the free report whereas the specific McDaniel lead required subscription. Via 3/31/14 post of MississippiConservative.com, below.
3/31/14, "Thad Cochran Fails to get 50 percent in Rasmussen Poll against Travis Childers," mississippiconservative.com

"Mississippi Senate: Cochran (R) 48%, Childers (D) 31%"

"In a new Rasmussen Poll out today, Senator Thad Cochran failed to get at least 50 percent against Democrat Travis Chiders. Despite a career spanning 42 years in Congress, and huge name recognition, Senator Cochran garnered only 48 percent against a man who lost his congressional seat as an incumbent in his own district by 17 points!

Despite the lies of Cochran’s supporters that Senator Chris McDaniel would most assuredly lose to Childers, Rasmussen states that both Republican candidates have a “solid lead” over the former Democratic Congressman. Senator McDaniel is up on Childers by 12 points, 47 to 35.  Those numbers are remarkable for a state senator from Jones County against a former US Congressman.

And although Cochran’s people will likely point to the fact that McDaniel also failed to reach the 50 percent threshold, we again must point out that he is a state senator, not a longtime incumbent who has been in Washington since 1973 and has poured millions into the race.  These numbers can’t make the Cochran team happy."


McDaniel ahead in both Republican and Democrat leaning post-primary polls per Politico. Strategic National Poll conducted June 5, two days after the Miss. primary shows McDaniel leading by 6 pts. Chism Strategies poll conducted 6/5 also shows McDaniel ahead:

6/9/14, "New poll gives McDaniel 6-point lead in runoff," Politico Morning Score, by Emily Schultheis and Jose Delreal


The conventional wisdom says Mississippi state Sen. Chris McDaniel has the advantage in the upcoming June 24 Senate runoff — and a new robopoll of likely GOP runoff voters from the group Strategic National feeds that CW by finding the GOP challenger with a 6-point lead. McDaniel takes 52 percent in the poll, with GOP incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran at 46 percent. (McDaniel led the primary with 49.5 percent of the vote, compared with 49.0 percent for Cochran.) Asked if Cochran should continue to contest the runoff or step down and let McDaniel win, 40 percent of voters thought Cochran should step aside. Despite McDaniel’s lead, those surveyed have a slightly more positive view of Cochran than they do of McDaniel: Cochran is at 58 percent favorable and 26 percent unfavorable; McDaniel is at 53 percent favorable, 32 percent unfavorable. The poll was conducted on June 5, two days after the primary; it was not conducted for any candidate or group involved in the race, though Strategic National is closer to the tea-party wing of the GOP."...

Talking Points Memo, McDaniel leads in both Republican and Democrat leaning polls:

6/9/14, "Polls: McDaniel Leads Cochran In Runoff," TPM, Daniel Strauss

"A pair of new polls shows state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-MS) leading Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) in the runoff of the Republican primary for United States Senate.

A poll from the Republican-leaning National Strategic firm found McDaniel leading Cochran 52.49 percent to Cochran with 45.93 percent of likely Republican runoff voters. The poll also found that 40 percent of those surveyed said Cochran should step aside rather than continue to run in the runoff.

The poll was conducted on June 5 (two days after the primary) among 442 respondents. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.66 percentage points. 

Meanwhile another poll by the Democratic-leaning Chism Strategies found McDaniel leading Cochran 50.6 percent to 47.6 percent among those surveyed. An earlier Chism poll also found McDaniel just barely leading Cochran. 

The new Chism poll was conducted among 832 voters who participated in the 2008, 2010, and 2012 GOP primaries. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3. 3 percentage points.

The runoff is on June 24."


6/9/14, "Sean Hannity Endorses Chris McDaniel," Breitbart, Matthew Boyle

"McDaniel, who is leading in two new polls, is generally considered the frontrunner because he won the first round of balloting, brings a youthful vigor to the race that Cochran at 76 lacks, and generally enjoys more enthusiastic support.

The first poll, a Chism Strategies poll, found McDaniel leads Cochran 50.6 percent to 47.6 percent, just inside the poll’s 3.3 percent margin of error. The second poll from the Strategic Journal, according to Politico’s Morning Score, shows McDaniel with a six-point lead, 52 percent to Cochran’s 46 percent....

Fox News host and national conservative radio personality Sean Hannity endorsed state Sen. Chris McDaniel over incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) Monday, saying the race is “too important” and McDaniel is “too good” a candidate not to.

Noting, “I mostly stay out of primaries, Hannity explained his support was rooted in distaste for Washington deal making as he indirectly compared McDaniel to Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.

It’s very, very frustrating to me,” he said. “It just is. Do we want to change the country for the better? If we want to do that, we need bold, outspoken, dynamic, inspiring leadership—people that are willing to take a stand. Ted Cruz is willing to take a stand. Ted Cruz is fighting the administration.

Ted Cruz goes out there and does what every Republican said they’d do on healthcare and he gets trashed by his fellow senators for doing what they themselves promised to do. I don’t understand it. I really don’t.”

“I kind of feel awkward telling people in Mississippi who to vote for, but I’ve been asked, and I’m giving you the answer: People ask me who I would vote for, and I would vote for Sen. Chris McDaniel,” Hannity said. “That’s my answer.”"...


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