Monday, June 9, 2014

Breitbart News accurately reports poll result that Chris McDaniel holds slight lead over Cochran in 6/5 poll but then misleads by selling small subsample of 8 voters as "extraordinary" result for Cochran which the poll explicitly said not to use due to small sample size. Maybe Matthew Boyle and Breitbart mgmt. are pitching jobs with the RNC, Fox News, or the Bush family

Chism Poll conducted Thursday, June 5, 2014 of "likely GOP voters."

6/8/14, "Poll: Tea Party's McDaniel Takes Slight Lead Over Thad Cochran Heading Into Runoff," Breitbart, Matthew Boyle

"Tea Party-backed State Sen. Chris McDaniel has taken a slight lead — within the margin of error — in a new poll from Chism Strategies over 42-year incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS).

The survey's results, announced on Saturday, show McDaniel with a 50.6 percent to 47.6 percent lead over Cochran, with 1.8 percent undecided. The survey was conducted on Thursday — two days after McDaniel bested Cochran in the popular vote with neither candidate topping 50 percent, forcing the race into a runoff — and it polled 832 likely GOP voters. The poll’s margin of error was 3.3 percent, putting McDaniel’s lead at the margin of error’s outer edge."...


The 6/5 Chism poll released 6/7 clearly states at the top that crosstabs provided are 


The poll urges "caution against drawing sweeping conclusions from demographic groups with a small subsample number" including "all voters under age 45.The poll only sampled 8 voters between the ages of 18-35. A small subsample.

Yet Breitbart's Matthew Boyle does exactly what the poll says not to do. He makes a sweeping conclusion about 18-35 year old voters. Over two paragraphs (posted below), he describes the 18-35 numbers as

"extraordinary" and


Text from 6/5 Chism poll released 6/7:

"The charts below are unweighted responses. We caution against drawing sweeping conclusions from demographic

groups with a small subsample number. (Minority voters and all voters under age 45)."...

Continuing from the poll:

"Unweighted Toplines:

"What is your age range?"

18-35     8 

35-45      23

46-54      60

55-64       172

65 or older   601

Grand total   864"


From Matthew Boyle's 6/8/14 Breitbart article, two paragraphs selling the "extraordinary" and "overwhelming" 18-35 voter
"In crosstabs that Chism released with the poll, an extraordinary amount of young voters voted for — and plan to continue to support — Cochran. Seventy-five percent of 18-35 year-olds voted for Cochran in the primary, compared to 25 percent who voted for McDaniel.

While McDaniel picks up some support from Cochran’s youth voters — 29 percent of 18-35 year-olds say they’ll vote for McDaniel in the runoff — Cochran still has an overwhelming 71 percent of support from 18 to 35 year-old voters."


6/7/14, "Latest Survey of Public Opinion on US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff," Chism Strategies


Matthew Boyle's reputation for bias precedes this article, per a Breitbart commenter:


Everything Boyle writes is suspect. He is a RINO sympathizer at heart."


Note: Not measured in the poll are Democrats who voted in the 6/3 open Republican primary who may or may not vote in in the Republican runoff.


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