Chism Poll conducted Thursday, June 5, 2014 of "likely GOP voters."
6/8/14, "Poll: Tea Party's McDaniel Takes Slight Lead Over Thad Cochran Heading Into Runoff," Breitbart, Matthew Boyle
"Tea Party-backed State Sen. Chris McDaniel has taken a slight lead — within the margin of error — in a new poll from Chism Strategies over 42-year incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS).
The survey's results, announced on Saturday, show McDaniel with a 50.6 percent to 47.6 percent lead over Cochran, with 1.8 percent undecided. The survey was conducted on Thursday — two days after McDaniel bested Cochran in the popular vote with neither candidate topping 50 percent, forcing the race into a runoff — and it polled 832 likely GOP voters. The poll’s margin of error was 3.3 percent, putting McDaniel’s lead at the margin of error’s outer edge."...
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The 6/5 Chism poll released 6/7 clearly states at the top that crosstabs provided are
"unweighted."
The poll urges "caution against drawing sweeping conclusions from demographic groups with a small subsample number" including "all voters under age 45." The poll only sampled 8 voters between the ages of 18-35. A small subsample.
Yet Breitbart's Matthew Boyle does exactly what the poll says not to do. He makes a sweeping conclusion about 18-35 year old voters. Over two paragraphs (posted below), he describes the 18-35 numbers as
"extraordinary" and
"overwhelming."
Text from 6/5 Chism poll released 6/7:
"The charts below are unweighted responses. We caution against drawing sweeping conclusions from demographic
Continuing from the poll:
"Unweighted Toplines:
"What is your age range?"
18-35 8
35-45 23
46-54 60
55-64 172
65 or older 601
Grand total 864"
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From Matthew Boyle's 6/8/14 Breitbart article, two paragraphs selling the "extraordinary" and "overwhelming" 18-35 voter
:
"In crosstabs that Chism released with the poll, an extraordinary amount of young voters voted for — and plan to continue to support — Cochran. Seventy-five percent of 18-35 year-olds voted for Cochran in the primary, compared to 25 percent who voted for McDaniel.
While McDaniel picks up some support from Cochran’s youth voters — 29 percent of 18-35 year-olds say they’ll vote for McDaniel in the runoff — Cochran still has an overwhelming 71 percent of support from 18 to 35 year-old voters."
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6/7/14, "Latest Survey of Public Opinion on US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff," Chism Strategies
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Matthew Boyle's reputation for bias precedes this article, per a Breitbart commenter:
"
Note: Not measured in the poll are Democrats who voted in the 6/3 open Republican primary who may or may not vote in in the Republican runoff.
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