Sunday, November 8, 2015

Trump leads Republican field nationwide and in California per latest LA Times USC Dornsife Survey Monkey online poll, Oct. 29-Nov. 3, 2015

Trump 25
Carson 21
Rubio 12 
Cruz 10
Bush 4
Fiorina 4
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2
Christie 1

Trump 20
Carson 19
Rubio 14 
Cruz 11
Fiorina 6
Bush 4
Paul 3
Christie 2
Graham 1
Huckabee 1
Kasich 1
Santorum 1

Poll dates Oct. 29-Nov. 3, 2015. Registered Republican and Republican leaning Independent voters in California and nationwide. Conducted online by Survey Monkey. Nationwide and California only. Confidence interval, 2.5 nationally, 3 Calif. National GOP total p 37. Calif. GOP total p. 19.

11/8/15, "Poll: On the left and right, voters express anxiety over future," LA Times, David Lauter

"Concerns--detailed in a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll, conducted online by SurveyMonkey--have been driving voter decisions about which candidates they favor for president. Both in California and nationwide, they have helped propel two nontraditional candidates, businessman Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, to the forefront of the Republican field. 

Trump tops the field nationally, but barely, the poll found. He has support of 25% of registered Republican voters to Carson's 21%. Statewide, the two are essentially even, with Trump at 20% and Carson at 19%....

Rubio, who has gained endorsements from several GOP elected officials in recent days, moved into third place, with support of 14% of Republican voters in California and 12% across the country; Cruz got 11% statewide and 10% nationally.

The statewide figures represent significant moves by both Cruz and Rubio since a USC/Times poll of California voters taken in September.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the party's onetime front-runner, fell to 4% both in California and nationwide. Nationally, that puts him in a tie with Carly Fiorina. Statewide, Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard chief executive who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate from California five years ago, drew 6%....

This USC/Times poll, conducted online in English and Spanish, questioned two representative samples of registered voters — 2,009 statewide and 3,035 nationally — from Oct. 29 to Nov. 3.

The respondents were drawn from the roughly 3 million Americans who take SurveyMonkey polls each day and weighted to match demographic factors measured by the census, including age, race, gender and education level. The results have an error estimate of plus or minus 3 percentage points for the statewide sample and 2.5 percentage points for the national sample....

Pessimism is particularly profound among white voters, especially those without a college education. In California, fewer than 1 in 4 non-college-educated whites say the country is on the right track, and 70% say they are worried about the way the economy has changed. Nationally, the worried share among the group is even higher, 74%....

Nationally, whites without college degrees outnumber college-educated minorities by about 3 to 1....

Only 1 in 10 voters nationwide, and 1 in 8 in California, say that the federal government "increases opportunities for people like me." Half of voters nationally and 4 out of 10 in California say the government "gets in the way.""

"Survey Monkey USC-Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll"


"Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. Polls conducted in one day may include additional error due to the limited time period that panelists have to respond to and complete the survey."... 


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