Trump leads Republican field in New Hampshire by ten points, 10/29-11/1/15, Monmouth Poll

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Trump 26
Carson 16
Rubio 13
Kasich 11
Cruz 9
Bush 7
Christie 5
Fiorina 5
Paul 3
Huckabee 1

Poll dates 10/29-11/1/15, 410 likely NH voters, 4.8 error margin

11/2/15, "New Hampshire: Rubio Rising in New Hampshire, Trump and Carson retain two top spots," Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray, West Long Branch, NJ

"The Monmouth University Poll  was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 29 to November 1, 2015 with a statewide random sample of 410 New Hampshire voters drawn from a list of registered Republican and independent voters who participated in a primary election in the past two election cycles or voted in both the 2012 and 2014 general elections, and indicate they will vote in the Republican presidential primary in February 2016. This was supplemented by a sample of non-voters who say they are likely to register and vote in the Republican primary. This includes 286 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 124 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for age and gender based on state registration list information on the pool of voters who participate in primary elections. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter list and non-voter sample). For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting  surveys  can  introduce error  or  bias into the findings of  opinion  polls."

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Analysis by Sundance:

11/2/15,  "New Hampshire Poll – Donald Trump Remains Leader, Establishment GOPe Counting On Rubio," The Conservative Treehouse, Sundance

"Monmouth University has a new poll of New Hampshire (full pdf). Jeb Bush spent $6+ million only to see his numbers Trumped even further. However, don’t underestimate the influence of the structural advantages retained by Bush; Jeb will never drop out.   

For now John Kasich and Marco Rubio are winning the NE white wine spritzer crowd (2nd tier country club community); and this is the poll result the media need to advance the corporate media Rubio-surging narrative."



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