Mississippi Sec. of State data strongly suggests higher black and Democrat turnout was the entirety of Thad Cochran's victory-NY Times

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7/9/14, "Voting Totals Reveal Crucial Boost From Blacks in Thad Cochran’s Victory," NY Times, Nate Cohen, Derek Willis

"The precinct level returns in Hinds County bolster the theory that a surge in black, Democratic turnout allowed Senator Thad Cochran to defeat Chris McDaniel, a Tea Party-backed state senator, in last month’s Republican primary runoff in Mississippi.

Mr. Cochran won by 7,667 votes. Nearly half — a net 3,532 votes — came from the most Democratic precincts in Jackson’s Hinds County, where President Obama won a combined 97.8 percent of the vote in 2012, according to figures released Tuesday night by the Mississippi secretary of state.

The surge in turnout was clearest in overwhelmingly black precincts; turnout sometimes increased by more than 3,000 percent over the initial Republican primary.

In Hinds County’s 25 most heavily Democratic precincts, where Mr. Obama won a combined 99.3 percent of the vote, Mr. Cochran picked up a net 1,414 votes, representing about a fifth of Mr. Cochran’s statewide margin of victory and dwarfing the 121 votes won by Mitt Romney in the same precincts in 2012.

Hattiesburg American

Over all, black turnout was not huge. Turnout in these heavily Democratic precincts was lower in the hotly contested Republican runoff than in the noncompetitive Democratic primary earlier in June. Turnout was about 9 percent of 2012 general election levels in these precincts, compared with as much as 70 or 80 percent in the most Republican precincts.

Precinct 83, an overwhelmingly black precinct where Mr. Obama won 99.3 percent of the vote, was emblematic of the significant but still limited increase in turnout. Mr. Cochran’s vote total jumped from 35 in the primary to 204 in the runoff; in 2012, Mr. Romney drew 17 votes. Mr. McDaniel’s total dropped from six to five....

But the surge in black turnout was still momentous when taking into account the razor-thin margin of victory in the statewide contest and the usually nonexistent black turnout in a Republican primary.

The data strongly suggests that higher black and Democratic turnout covered the entirety of Mr. Cochran’s margin of victory. One in 10 of Mississippi’s Obama voters live in one of the precincts in Hinds County, where Mr. Cochran racked up half of his statewide margin of victory. Precinct-level examinations of data for other counties have not been completed, but the remaining nine-tenths of Obama voters could have easily provided the rest of the margin, and more.

If the increase in turnout among Obama voters across Mississippi was as large as the increase in heavily Democratic precincts in Hinds County, it’s possible that an additional 40,000 Obama voters participated in the runoff and voted for Mr. Cochran by 20 to 1. That’s not completely inconsistent with the statewide tallies: Mr. Cochran won 33,775 more votes than he did in the initial primary, and there is evidence that he lost ground among white voters in the more Republican, eastern part of the state.

There are reasons to think that the increase in black turnout was larger in Jackson than elsewhere in the state. In the South, black turnout is generally highest in areas with a large black population, like Jackson, probably reflecting the relative ease of mobilizing voters in areas of greater population density.

The precinct results in Hinds County also indicate that Mr. Cochran picked up voters in predominantly Republican, white areas, suggesting that black, Democratic voters were not entirely responsible for the increase in support for Mr. Cochran....

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The McDaniel campaign has alleged, so far without evidence, that Mr. Cochran’s victory depended on voters who participated in the Democratic primary and were therefore precluded from voting in the Republican runoff. This data cannot address that question: Precinct-level results can’t show whether voters participated in the Democratic primary, even if it is reasonable to infer that Mr. Cochran depended on voters who supported Mr. Obama in 2012." via Free Republic

Image: "Black, Democratic voters gave Senator Thad Cochran a big lift in the Republican runoff election two weeks ago in Mississippi. Credit Kelly Price/The Hattiesburg American, via Associated Press," via NY Times 

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Transcript of June 2014 Cochran radio ad using lies intended to incite racial hatred to convince African Americans to vote in a Republican primary runoff for Republican Thad Cochran and against Republican Chris McDaniel. Note the ad says "billions are at stake." "All Citizens for Mississippi," is said to have paid for the ad.

""This is Bishop Ronnie Crudup of All Citizens for Mississippi encouraging every registered voter to go out and vote on June 24.

We're in critical time which means we must make tough decisions.

The issues do not just affect Republicans but they affect every citizen. 

A victory by tea party candidate Chris McDaniel is a loss for the state of Mississippi.

It is a loss for public education.

It is a loss for the health care industry of this state, for the farm families and agriculture.

It is a loss for Ingalls and the ship industry, for our military bases.

It is a loss for the citizens of this state in a time of natural disaster, for our public universities and particularly our historically black universities.

A victory for Chris McDaniel is a loss for the reputation of this state for race, for race relationships between blacks and whites and other ethnic groups.

Mississippi can't afford Chris McDaniel.

We cannot afford the price of inexperienced, untested, disconnected leadership.

Billions are at stake.

On June the 24th go out and vote for Senator Thad Cochran.

This ad was paid for by political action committee All Citizens for Mississippi.""

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