Sunday, October 9, 2016

Trump leads by 4 points in Iowa, Des Moines Register poll, Oct. 3-6, 2016. Trump has 11 point lead among independent Iowa voters, 14 point lead among first time or infrequent voters. 20% of Bernie supporters have moved to Trump, 62% to Hillary. Trump has 8 point lead among voters under 35 as well as those under 55-Des Moines Register

Trump 43
Hillary 39
Johnson 6
Stein 2

Independent voters (per article)
Trump 42
Hillary 31

Oct. 3-6, 2016, 642 likely Iowa voters, 3.9 error margin, randomly selected land lines and cell phones. Political affiliation of respondents, D-R-I, is not provided in the linked poll or the narrative. Link to poll

10/8/16, "Iowa Poll: Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 4 points," Des Moines Register, Jason Noble

"Donald Trump leads the presidential race in the swing state of Iowa, lifted by voters’ widespread distrust of Hillary Clinton and pessimism about the nation's direction.

The Republican nominee tops his Democratic rival by 4 percentage points in the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, defying a surge in support for Clinton seen nationally and in other battleground states since the candidates’ first debate, on Sept. 26.

Interviewing for the Iowa Poll concluded before the revelation Friday of a recorded conversation in 2005 in which Trump made lewd comments about kissing and groping women....

In the new poll, Trump is the first choice for 43 percent of likely voters, compared with 39 percent who back Clinton. Six percent say they’re voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2 percent favor Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Election forecasters generally see Iowa as critical to Trump's path to the presidency, while Clinton could reach the White House without winning the Hawkeye State.

Driving Trump’s success is a deep dislike for Clinton among Republicans and independents, and a sense among likely Iowa voters that he would deliver better results on several major issues confronting the country.

“Hillary Clinton has real problems in the state of Iowa,” national elections forecaster Harry Enten said.

Enten, who examines political polling for the news site, cautioned that Clinton could still win the state but said the Iowa Poll results prove the effectiveness of Trump’s relentless hammering on an opponent he calls “Crooked Hillary."

“His message is working there,” Enten said. “It’s very clear that Iowa voters have a big beef with Hillary Clinton — more so than voters nationally.”

Indeed, trust concerns — both general and specific — are a major drag for Clinton here. Fifty-two percent of respondents say questions about her trustworthiness bother them a lot, and the numbers are similar for three specific instances in which Clinton’s honesty has been challenged.

Fifty-one percent of respondents are bothered a lot by donations to the Clinton Foundation from foreign governments during Clinton's term as secretary of state; 52  percent by her handling of the terrorist attack on a diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya; and 53 percent by her handling of her private email as secretary....

Forty-five percent of all voters-and 48 percent of independents -say the questions raised about Trump’s taxes don’t bother them at all.

Iowa voters also see Trump as the better choice for handling a range of issues.

Fifty-three percent say Trump would do a better job of fixing the economy, compared with 40 percent who choose Clinton. Pluralities also peg Trump as doing a better job than Clinton on combating Islamic terrorism, fixing the immigration system and determining tax policy.

But Iowans are evenly divided on one of the things Trump brags about often: his ability as a negotiator. Respondents split 46-46 on whether Clinton or Trump would be better at negotiating favorable trade deals.

Only when it comes to handling relations with other countries does a majority see Clinton as the better option. Sixty percent say she’d do a better job, compared with 34 percent who say Trump would.

The poll of 800 Iowa adults was conducted by Selzer and Co. of Des Moines on Oct. 3-6 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Questions asked of the 642 likely voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points....

Its results showing a Trump lead align with other polling here in September. A Real Clear Politics polling average compiled shortly before the Iowa Poll was released gave Trump a 5 percentage point lead here.

Besides reflecting distrust for Clinton, Trump’s advantage in the state also represents an erosion of support for Democratic candidates that was evident even in 2014, Enten said.

“Regardless of whether or not there’s a trend in her direction, it’s very clear that these six electoral votes will be tough for her,” Enten said. “If Donald Trump is to win a state that Mitt Romney didn’t win in 2012, Iowa is right on the top of that list.”

Trump does best with younger voters, protestants, born-again Christians, rural voters and residents of the heavily conservative 4th Congressional District, in western Iowa.

He’s 8 percentage points ahead of Clinton among voters under 55, a figure that holds even for voters under 35.

He also leads Clinton 46 percent to 32 percent among male voters, while Clinton holds a narrower edge among women, 46 to 41. And among self-identified independents, he leads 42 percent to 31 percent....

Trump is also finding success among new and marginal voters in Iowa’s electorate. The candidates are virtually tied among voters who have cast ballots in most general elections — Trump leads 42 percent to 41 percent. But he has a much wider lead, 47 to 33, among those who are either voting for the first time or have voted irregularly in the past.

That means victory for Trump in Iowa could hinge in part on whether his voter turnout effort is robust enough to ensure that these sometime voters cast ballots this time.

Besides with women, Clinton counts higher support than Trump among voters ages 65 and older, those with a college degree, Catholics, those who identify with no religion, and those living in Iowa’s urban areas or in the 1st Congressional District, which is in eastern Iowa....

Just 1 percent (of Hillary supporters) say her history-making potential to become the first female president is the main reason for their support....

For Trump supporters, the candidate’s campaign motto alone captures the top reason for their support. Thirty-two percent of respondents say they back Trump because he will “restore what is good about America that has slipped away” — that is, he’ll make America great again. Another 29 percent say they’ll vote for Trump because he’s not a politician.

Iowans are widely pessimistic about the direction of the country, with 71 percent saying it’s on the wrong track against just 21 percent who say it’s on the right track. That wrong-track rating is up 6 percentage points since February, and is the highest recorded by an Iowa Poll since September 2008, when the economy was on the brink of collapse.

But even within that wide consensus on the country’s direction, there’s a huge discrepancy between Democrats and Republicans and, especially, Clinton and Trump voters.

Trump supporters see the situation as dire: 92 percent say the country is on the wrong track. Clinton voters, though, are mostly positive about the country’s direction. Fifty-one percent say it’s on the right track compared to 41 percent who say it’s on the wrong track.

A 48 percent plurality of respondents, meanwhile, say Iowa is on the right track, compared with 39 percent who say it’s on the wrong track — a slightly more positive result than from an Iowa Poll conducted in February.

Also of note is the dispersal of Bernie Sanders’ legion of supporters from last winter’s Iowa caucuses and the lengthy primary process that followed.

Thirty-seven percent of Iowa Poll respondents say they supported Sanders’ bid for the Democratic nomination at one time or another. But with Sanders out of the race and Clinton the nominee, a significant number of those — 27 percent — now say they’re unlikely to vote in November.

And Clinton has not succeeded in locking up a significant slice of one-time Sanders supporters who will cast ballots: 62 percent say they’re backing Clinton, while 20 percent have migrated to Trump. 

About the poll 

The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 3-6 for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer and Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 800 Iowans ages 18 or older, including 642 likely voters in the 2016 general election. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and educational attainment to reflect the general population based on recent census data. 

Questions based on the sample of 800 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error. For example, the margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points for answers among likely voters."



No comments: