Independent voters (per article)
Oct. 3-6, 2016, 642 likely Iowa voters, 3.9 error margin, randomly selected land lines and cell phones. Political affiliation of respondents, D-R-I, is not provided in the linked poll or the narrative. Link to poll
10/8/16, "Iowa Poll: Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 4 points," Des Moines Register, Jason Noble
"Donald Trump leads the presidential race in the swing state of Iowa,
lifted by voters’ widespread distrust of Hillary Clinton and pessimism
about the nation's direction.
The Republican nominee tops his
Democratic rival by 4 percentage points in the latest Des Moines
Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, defying a surge in support for Clinton seen
nationally and in other battleground states since the candidates’ first
debate, on Sept. 26.
Interviewing for the Iowa Poll concluded
before the revelation Friday of a recorded conversation in 2005 in
which Trump made lewd comments about kissing and groping women....
the new poll, Trump is the first choice for 43 percent of likely
voters, compared with 39 percent who back Clinton. Six percent say
they’re voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2 percent favor Green
Party candidate Jill Stein.
Election forecasters generally see
Iowa as critical to Trump's path to the presidency, while Clinton could
reach the White House without winning the Hawkeye State.
Trump’s success is a deep dislike for Clinton among Republicans and
independents, and a sense among likely Iowa voters that he would deliver
better results on several major issues confronting the country.
“Hillary Clinton has real problems in the state of Iowa,” national elections forecaster Harry Enten said.
Enten, who examines political polling for the news site
FiveThirtyEight.com, cautioned that Clinton could still win the
state but said the Iowa Poll results prove the effectiveness of Trump’s
relentless hammering on an opponent he calls “Crooked Hillary."
message is working there,” Enten said. “It’s very clear that Iowa
voters have a big beef with Hillary Clinton — more so than voters
Indeed, trust concerns — both general and specific —
are a major drag for Clinton here. Fifty-two percent of respondents say
questions about her trustworthiness bother them a lot, and the numbers
are similar for three specific instances in which Clinton’s honesty has
Fifty-one percent of respondents are bothered a
lot by donations to the Clinton Foundation from foreign governments
during Clinton's term as secretary of state; 52 percent by her handling
of the terrorist attack on a diplomatic compound in Benghazi,
Libya; and 53 percent by her handling of her private email as secretary....
percent of all voters-and 48 percent of independents -say the
questions raised about Trump’s taxes don’t bother them at all.
Iowa voters also see Trump as the better choice for handling a range of issues.
percent say Trump would do a better job of fixing the economy, compared
with 40 percent who choose Clinton. Pluralities also peg Trump as doing
a better job than Clinton on combating Islamic terrorism, fixing the
immigration system and determining tax policy.
But Iowans are evenly divided on one of the things Trump brags about
often: his ability as a negotiator. Respondents split 46-46 on whether
Clinton or Trump would be better at negotiating favorable trade deals.
when it comes to handling relations with other countries does a
majority see Clinton as the better option. Sixty percent say she’d do a
better job, compared with 34 percent who say Trump would.
poll of 800 Iowa adults was conducted by Selzer and Co. of Des Moines
on Oct. 3-6 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5
percentage points. Questions asked of the 642 likely voters have a
margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points....
Its results showing a Trump lead
align with other polling here in September. A Real Clear Politics polling average compiled shortly before the Iowa Poll was released gave Trump a 5 percentage point lead here.
Besides reflecting distrust for Clinton, Trump’s advantage in the
state also represents an erosion of support for Democratic candidates
that was evident even in 2014, Enten said.
“Regardless of whether
or not there’s a trend in her direction, it’s very clear that these six
electoral votes will be tough for her,” Enten said. “If Donald Trump is
to win a state that Mitt Romney didn’t win in 2012, Iowa is right on the
top of that list.”
Trump does best with younger voters,
protestants, born-again Christians, rural voters and residents of the
heavily conservative 4th Congressional District, in western Iowa.
He’s 8 percentage points ahead of Clinton among voters under 55, a figure that holds even for voters under 35.
also leads Clinton 46 percent to 32 percent among male voters, while
Clinton holds a narrower edge among women, 46 to 41. And among
self-identified independents, he leads 42 percent to 31 percent....
Trump is also finding success among new and marginal voters in Iowa’s
electorate. The candidates are virtually tied among voters who have
cast ballots in most general elections — Trump leads 42 percent to 41
percent. But he has a much wider lead, 47 to 33, among those who are
either voting for the first time or have voted irregularly in the past.
means victory for Trump in Iowa could hinge in part on whether
his voter turnout effort is robust enough to ensure that these sometime
voters cast ballots this time.
Besides with women, Clinton counts
higher support than Trump among voters ages 65 and older, those with a
college degree, Catholics, those who identify with no religion, and
those living in Iowa’s urban areas or in the 1st Congressional District,
which is in eastern Iowa....
Just 1 percent (of Hillary supporters) say her history-making potential to become the first female president is the main reason for their support....
For Trump supporters, the candidate’s campaign motto alone captures
the top reason for their support. Thirty-two percent of respondents say
they back Trump because he will “restore what is good about America that
has slipped away” — that is, he’ll make America great again. Another 29
percent say they’ll vote for Trump because he’s not a politician.
widely pessimistic about the direction of the country, with 71 percent
saying it’s on the wrong track against just 21 percent who say it’s on
the right track. That wrong-track rating is up 6 percentage points since
February, and is the highest recorded by an Iowa Poll since
September 2008, when the economy was on the brink of collapse.
even within that wide consensus on the country’s direction, there’s a
huge discrepancy between Democrats and Republicans and, especially,
Clinton and Trump voters.
Trump supporters see the situation as dire: 92 percent say the country is on the wrong track. Clinton
voters, though, are mostly positive about the country’s direction.
Fifty-one percent say it’s on the right track compared to 41 percent who
say it’s on the wrong track.
A 48 percent plurality of
respondents, meanwhile, say Iowa is on the right track, compared with 39
percent who say it’s on the wrong track — a slightly more positive
result than from an Iowa Poll conducted in February.
Also of note
is the dispersal of Bernie Sanders’ legion of supporters from last
winter’s Iowa caucuses and the lengthy primary process that followed.
percent of Iowa Poll respondents say they supported Sanders’ bid for
the Democratic nomination at one time or another. But with Sanders out
of the race and Clinton the nominee, a significant number of those — 27
percent — now say they’re unlikely to vote in November.
Clinton has not succeeded in locking up a significant slice of one-time
Sanders supporters who will cast ballots: 62 percent say they’re backing
Clinton, while 20 percent have migrated to Trump.
About the poll
Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 3-6 for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom
by Selzer and Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with
800 Iowans ages 18 or older, including 642 likely voters in the 2016
general election. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted
households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers
supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered
in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and educational
attainment to reflect the general population based on recent census
Questions based on the
sample of 800 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or
minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were
repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out
of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by
more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller
samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin
of error. For example, the margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points
for answers among likely voters."
Sunday, October 9, 2016
Trump leads by 4 points in Iowa, Des Moines Register poll, Oct. 3-6, 2016. Trump has 11 point lead among independent Iowa voters, 14 point lead among first time or infrequent voters. 20% of Bernie supporters have moved to Trump, 62% to Hillary. Trump has 8 point lead among voters under 35 as well as those under 55-Des Moines Register
Posted by susan at 5:23 AM