Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Trump 41.3, Hillary 40.0, IBD TTIP nationwide poll, Oct. 13-18, 2016. Results are 'Trump's best showing in months.' Trump has 14 point lead among parents, 3 point lead among married women. 65% cell phone, 35% land line, 3.6 error margin

Trump 41.3
Hillary 40
Johnson 7.6
Stein 5.5

Oct. 13-18, 2016, 782 likely voters nationwide. 65% cell phone, 35% land line live interviews, 3.6 error margin

10/18/16, IBD TTIP Presidential Election Tracking Poll

"The IBD/TIPP poll previously was monitoring support for the candidates in the 2016 election on a monthly basis. The new results are Trump's best showing in months....

Trump scores higher on voter intensity, with 67% of his backers saying they strongly support him, compared with 58% of Clinton supporters who say they strongly back their candidate....

The IBD/TIPP tracking poll has been cited as the most accurate in predicting actual election results in the past three presidential elections.

In the four-way matchup, the poll shows some noteworthy gaps. By gender, Clinton does much better among women — 47% to 37% — but Trump's lead among men is just as strong at 47% to 32%.

Trump does better among parents (46% to 32%), married women (44% to 41%), lower-class households (53% to 37%), and the religious, among whom Clinton's support never tops 38%. Among those who express no religion, Clinton handily beats Trump 63% to 16%.

Clinton does better among college educated — 45% to 36% — while Trump outperforms Clinton among those with only a high school education — 58% to 27%. 


For the results released today, TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence conducted the Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll from Oct. 13 through Oct. 18, 2016.

A total of 872 Americans age 18 or older participated in the nationwide survey. Of the 872 respondents, 825 were registered voters and 782 were likely voters.

The story is based on the subsample of likely voters. The margin of error for the likely voters sample is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

TechnoMetrica uses "traditional" telephone methodology using live interviewers for data collection for its public opinion surveys. Roughly 65% of interviews come from a cell phone sample and 35% from a Random Digit Dial (RDD) land line sample."


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