Friday, October 28, 2016

CNN moves Florida and Nevada from lean Democrat to tossup. New NBC WSJ poll shows Nevada tied, had been trending Democrat. New Bloomberg Florida poll shows Trump slightly ahead-McClatchy, 10/27/16

10/27/16, "Update Florida and North Carolina – Early Vote/Ballot Data Show Advantages for Donald Trump:" "The media continues to sell a specific election narrative that’s in their best interests. To sell the narrative they generally rely on "Media Polls."  We had previously predicted the media polling would shift in the final two weeks, and they have."...

10/27/16, "Is Trump making a comeback? New projections show gains," McClatchy via Miami Herald, David Lightman, Washington

"Two new nonpartisan analyses"...

[Ed note: Translation of "two nonpartisan analyses:" Two media polls. In this case one each from CNN and NBC WSJ which are thus presented as having no bias simply because they're media polls. A Bloomberg poll (also media) is referenced later in the article. Non-media polling organizations aren't mentioned because they're supposedly partisan (whether they are or not), per McClatchy. Exclusive use of "Media Polling" allows easier control of election narrative: "They generally rely on “Media Polls”.  We had previously predicted the media polling would shift in the final two weeks, and they have."...]

(continuing): "...give the Republican presidential nominee good news.

CNN has moved Nevada and Florida from leaning Democratic to tossup, and the RealClearPolitics electoral map now has Hillary Clinton at 252 electoral votes, 18 shy of what’s needed to win. Monday, it projected her to have 272. CNN still has Clinton at 272....

CNN gives Trump 179 solid electoral votes, with 87 up for grabs. RealClearPolitics gives Trump 126 solid electoral votes, with 160 rated tossups.

The changes are all the result of new polling.

RealClearPolitics’ number changed as it moved Pennsylvania, which has 20 electoral votes, from leaning to Clinton to the tossup category. New polling shows her lead shrinking slightly, though she’s still ahead by an average of 4.4 percentage points."..

[Ed. note: Pennsylvania doesn't have early voting per se. Absentee voting is by mail]

(continuing): "In Nevada, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College poll shows a tie. In Florida, a state that had been trending Democratic, Bloomberg Politics’ poll put Trump slightly ahead."


Comment: The notion of "partisan" polls assumes the US has two major political parties each with a unique set of priorities and a desire for different outcomes. It would be nice if this were so, but it's not and is the whole reason we have Trump. The entire political class is in one party which wants open borders, massive free trade deals, and endless foreign wars paid for by US taxpayers. The half of America that votes Republican doesn't have a political party behind them and hasn't for a very long time.


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