Sunday, October 16, 2016

Trump and Hillary in statistical tie, Washington Post ABC News nationwide poll, Oct. 10-13, 2016. Hillary 47-Trump 43, margin of error 4 points. "Controversy appeared to have had only a minimal impact on his overall support"-Washington Post, Oct. 16

Trump 43
Hillary 47
Johnson 5
Stein 2
Poll dates: Oct. 10-13, 2016, (M-Th), error margin 4 points, 740 likely voters nationwide, 32D, 29R, 33 Ind. among registered voters (likely voter breakdown not included at this time, perhaps will be added later), land line and cell phone. Preliminary results

10/16/16, "Washington Post-ABC News poll: Clinton holds four-point lead in aftermath of Trump tape," Washington Post, Scott Clement and Dan Balz

"With three weeks until Election Day, Hillary Clinton holds a four-point lead over Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.... 

The poll was conducted during one of the most tumultuous periods of Trump’s candidacy...Nonetheless, the controversy appeared to have had only a minimal impact on his overall support.

Overall, Clinton leads Trump by 47-43 percent among likely voters, a slight edge given the survey’s four percentage point error margin."...

[Ed. note: A statistical tie is a statistical tie, which is what 47-43 is with a 4 point margin of error. The mighty Washington Post can't bring itself to say the words "statistical tie."]

(continuing): "Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson has the support of 5 percent, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein is at 2 percent. Among registered voters, the poll shows a similar four-point margin, with Clinton at 44, Trump at 40, Johnson at 6 and Stein at 3....

The current findings show only slight changes from the last Post-ABC survey, which was taken on the eve of the first presidential debate. At that time, Clinton held an insignificant two-point edge over Trump among likely voters.... 

Supporters of both candidates are locked in, with 88 percent of Trump supporters and 89 percent of Clinton backers saying they will “definitely” support their current preference.... 

The Post-ABC poll was conducted Oct. 10-13 among a random national sample of 1,152 adults reached on cellular and landline phones. The margin of sampling error for overall results is plus or minus three percentage points; the margin of error is 3.5 points among the sample of 920 registered voters and four points among the sample of 740 likely voters."


Washington Post ABC News breakdown of political affiliation doesn't include "likely voters" at this moment (2:38AM Eastern, Oct. 16). Right now they show "registered voters" and total adults. Perhaps "likely voters" will be included later. "Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a..." (click "detailed view" to get Registered voters vs Total adults)



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