Sunday, October 30, 2016

Trump has 4 point lead in Florida, NY Times Siena College Poll, Oct. 25-27, 2016. 814 likely Florida voters. Trump leads by 12 points among Florida independent voters

Trump 46
Hillary 42
Johnson 4
Stein 2

Independent Florida voters

Trump 45
Hillary 33
Johnson 9
Stein 4

Oct. 25-27, 2016 (Tu-Th), 814 likely Florida voters, error margin 3.4. (32D, 34R, 31 Ind.) Male 46, female 54 (+8 female). White 64, Black 11, Latino 16. Land line and cell phone (45%) interviews.

10/30/16, "New York Times-Siena College Poll"

10/30/16, "Latest Upshot Poll Shows Trump With a Lead in Florida," NY Times, Nate Cohn 

"A New York Times Upshot/Siena poll released Mr. Trump a four-point lead in Florida, 46 percent to 42 percent, in a four-way race. In our first poll of Florida a month ago, Mr. Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by a percentage point.... 

The poll is not the only one to show Mr. Trump in the lead. A Bloomberg/Selzer poll, which is methodologically similar to the New York Times Upshot/Siena poll, showed Mr. Trump with a two-point edge last week."... 

Mr. Trump won 86 percent of self-identified Republicans — the highest percentage of that group in any Upshot/Siena survey so far this year.

He had the support of 84 percent of registered Republicans, up from 72 percent in September and also the highest of any Upshot/Siena survey this year. 

Mr. Trump’s consolidation of Republican-leaning voters is a trend in national surveys, and it comes alongside a corresponding decline in the number of supporters for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, who received just 4 percent of the vote in our survey — the lowest of any Upshot/Siena poll. Republicans have been likelier than Democrats to support Mr. Johnson in most of our polls. 

Even college-educated white voters, who have been skeptical of Mr. Trump nationwide, are showing less skepticism in Florida. He has a lead of 51 percent to 35 percent among those voters in our survey. 

Clinton weakness among white working-class Democrats.

Mr. Trump leads among white voters without a college degree by an impressive margin of 63 percent to 24 percent. He’s so strong that Mrs. Clinton has just 55 percent of the vote among white registered Democrats without a degree, compared with Mr. Trump’s 32 percent. 

The combination of Republican unity and a large dissenting vote among registered Democrats is responsible for Mr. Trump’s lead."... 

NY Times Siena Poll Methodology: Poll used 2012 turnout model: "The turnout score was based on a model of turnout in the 2012 presidential election. The probabilities were applied to 2016."

Siena: "Self-identified independents have moved from leaning to Trump by two points to now giving the Republican a twelve point advantage
as support for Johnson has been cut in half,” said Siena College Poll Director Don Levy.Trump has extended his lead with men from nine points to 18 and cut into Clinton’s advantage among women, trimming it from ten to seven points."


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