.
Trump 49
Hillary 42
Johnson 3
Oct. 25-27, 2016 (Tu-Th), 64% automated voice on home telephone, 36% responded to questionnaire on electronic device. 4.1 error margin, 47 male, 53 female. 33R, 29D, 35 Ind.
10/31/16, "In Georgia, Clinton Unable to Seal the Deal, Trails Trump by 7 With 11 Days to Go," Survey USA Operations
"Democrats have high hopes for Georgia’s 16 electoral votes, but Hillary Clinton falls short in an election today, 10/28/16, according to SurveyUSA polling for WXIA-TV, the Tegna station in Atlanta. Republican Donald Trump is at 49%, Clinton at 42%, and Libertarian
Gary Johnson at 3% at this hour.
Among voters who have already returned a
ballot, Trump leads by 6. Among voters who have not yet returned a
ballot but who promise to vote before polls close on 11/08/16, Trump
leads Clinton by 8. When the 2 groups are combined, Trump leads by 7, up
from a 4-point Trump lead when SurveyUSA last polled Georgia for WXIA
in August.
Trump leads by 58 points among rural men, by 56 points among voters
focused on immigration, by 46 points among evangelical voters, by 44
points among whites, by 37 points among rural women, by 28 points among
seniors, by 26 points in Northwest GA (which includes Dalton, Rome and
53 counties to the North and West of Greater Atlanta), by 26 points
among college-educated whites, by 22 points among middle-income voters
and by 18 points among high-school educated men.
Clinton holds 93% of the Democratic base and leads among moderates by
17 points. Although she does have a 21-point edge among just suburban
women, when all women statewide are compiled, Clinton leads by just 4
points, not enough to overcome Trump’s 21-point advantage among men
statewide...
Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 17% of GA voters, extremely unfavorably by 38%.
* Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 14% of GA voters, extremely unfavorably by 47%.
Respondent Filtering / Historical Context:
SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of GA adults 10/25/16 through
10/27/16. Of the adults interviewed, 683 were registered to vote in
Georgia. Of the registered voters, 5% say they “almost always” vote in
Presidential elections but will not vote in 2016 because they do not
like any of the candidates on the ballot. An offsetting 5% say they
“almost never” vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016
because they are uniquely drawn to one of the candidates. These
so-called “new” voters split; they do not disproportionately favor
Trump. Of the registered voters, 593 were determined by SurveyUSA to
have already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before polls
close on 11/08/16.
This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode.
Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of likely voters) were
interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a
professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone
(36% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of
their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Georgia last voted
for a Democrat for President in 1992, when Bill Clinton captured the
state’s then 13 electoral votes by 1 percentage point over George H. W.
Bush. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried Georgia by 8 points. In 2008, John
McCain carried Georgia by 7 points. George W. Bush carried Georgia by 17
points in 2004 and by 12 points in 2000."
..........................
Georgia Independent voters (item 2)
Economy 47%
Education 7%
..........................
Hillary voters:
Education 85%
Economy 44%
Nat. security and terrorism 29%
Immigration 22%
Above chart from item 2, Survey USA
--------------
........................
Additional source:
10/31/16, "EXCLUSIVE POLL: Trump lead grows in Georgia," WXIA TV, Atlanta, Kristen Reed and Jennifer Leslie
"With days until election day, Republican presidential candidate
Donald Trump is slated to win Georgia's 16 electoral votes, according to
a new SurveyUSA poll conducted for 11Alive. Democratic presidential
candidate Hillary Clinton trails behind.
The survey shows Trump
with 49 percent of the vote in the state; Clinton has 42 percent and
Libertarian Gary Johnson has three percent. Six percent of voters
surveyed are undecided. Trump's 7-point lead is up from 4 points in our
last poll in August.
It's important to note this poll was taken before the revelation by the
FBI Director that he's looking in to new e-mails possibly related to
Clinton's use of a personal server as Secretary of State."...
...............
.
Trump 46.6
Hillary 43.2
10/31/16, USC Dornsife LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak Poll
"About the Survey✝
The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll is part of the ongoing Understanding America Study: (UAS) at the University of
Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
and the Los Angeles Times.
Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election
panel to answer three predictive questions:
What is the percent chance that… (1) you will vote in the presidential
election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and
(3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in,
we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of
all of the prior week’s responses. To find out more about what lies
behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra
questions
about their preferences and values. The team responsible for the USC
Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll four years ago developed
the
successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based
on the same methodology."
................
.
In March 2016 the
FBI specifically warned senior Hillary campaign officials that it was being targeted by spear phishing emails. The campaign declined FBI assistance on the matter. In the same month, March 2016, Hillary campaign "IT worker" declared a Podesta related spear phishing email "legitimate," approved "immediate" clicking on the tempting link, thus beginning the flood of Podesta emails,
followed by a desperate need for a scapegoat (yeah, Putin, another
chance to rattle sabres at him to help gin up WWIII) to divert attention
from the campaign's gross negligence. It's common knowledge that “most successful hacks today start with a phishing attack," and that "Gmail [used by Hillary campaign manager Podesta] is used for more than half of all data drop email accounts, making it the top webmail service used by attackers to receive credentials stolen via phishing." (So why is Podesta using it?) Information about spear phishing has been on the FBI website since at least 2009.
10/28/16, "How Podesta's Gmail Account Was Breached," the smokinggun.com
"Clinton campaign staff guilty of getting duped by hackers"
"So how did John Podesta’s e-mail account get hacked?
The answer to that question came into embarrassing focus this morning
with the latest Wikileaks dump of correspondence stolen from the Gmail
account of Hillary Clinton's campaign manager.
On March 19, a Saturday, Podesta received an e-mail--purportedly
from Google--warning him that, “Someone has your password.” The alert
(seen above) informed Podesta that a sign-in attempt from an IP address
in Ukraine was thwarted and that, “You should change your password
immediately.” The e-mail, addressed "Hi John," included a blue “CHANGE PASSWORD” box to be clicked."...
[Ed. note: In March 2016 the FBI contacted Hillary's campaign, warned specifically that it was being targeted by "spear phishing emails." The Hillary campaign declined FBI's offer to help. A "spear phishing" link is exactly what a Hillary "IT worker" said was "absolutely imperative" to click on and thus in March 2016 enabled the flood of Podesta emails.]
(continuing): "As TSG reported in August,
similar messages were sent to the Gmail accounts of scores of other
Clinton campaign officials around the time Podesta received the phony
alert. An identical e-mail--containing the exact Ukrainian IP
address--was received on March 22 by William Rinehart, a campaign
organizer. The IP address included in the e-mails received by Podesta
and Rinehart traces back to Kyivstar, Ukraine’s largest
telecommunications company.
Like Rinehart, Podesta’s Gmail account was compromised by the “spear phishing” e-mail....
After the e-mail arrived in Podesta’s account, it appears that his
chief of staff, Sara Latham, sought guidance from an IT worker with the
Clinton campaign. After examining the “Someone has your password”
e-mail, staffer Charles Delavan ...mistakenly assured Latham
and Shane Hable, the campaign’s chief information officer, that, “This
is a legitimate email. John needs to change his password immediately,
and ensure that two-factor authorization is turned on his account.”
Delavan’s 9:54 AM e-mail included a link to an actual Google password
change page. “It is absolutely imperative that this is done ASAP,” he
added.
Latham then forwarded Delavan’s email to Podesta and campaign staffer
Milia Fisher, who had access to Podesta’s Gmail account.
“The gmail one is real wrote Latham, who instructed Fisher to change Podesta’s password since “Don’t want to lock him out of his in box!”
But instead of following the link provided by Delavan, it appears
that Podesta or Fisher...clicked on the “CHANGE
PASSWORD” box in the original “spear phishing” correspondence (a copy of
which which was included in the e-mail chain that Saturday morning).
That link led to what appeared to be a legitimate Google page, but
was actually a site designed by the hackers to capture a target’s log-in
credentials. The link to the spoofed Gmail page included a lengthy
underlying url with the .tk suffix, indicating that the domain created
to trick Podesta was registered in Tokelau, a remote group of South
Pacific atolls.
The hidden 293-character link included a string of characters
containing the encoded Gmail address for Podesta
(john.podesta@gmail.com).
The e-mails stolen in the Podesta hack and posted on Wikileaks show that the most recent correspondence is from March 21.
While Delavan protected his Twitter page following the publication of this story, he did offer the public some sage advice earlier this week. In an October 25 tweet,
Delavan wrote, “don’t click on anything ever. delete your email
account. move to the woods.” (1 page) Image above from The Smoking Gun
--------------------------------
Among comments
................................
·
............................
Added: 7/28/16 article about March 2016 FBI warning to Hillary campaign specifically about "spear phishing." Hillary campaign declined FBI assistance on the matter when it asked for access to documents to help trace the spear phishers. (At the time Hillary was still under investigation by the FBI for possible criminal national security violations). "The
Brooklyn warning also could raise new questions about why the campaign
and the DNC didn’t take the matter more seriously."...
7/28/16, "FBI warned Clinton campaign last spring of cyberattack," Michael Isikoff, Yahoo News
"The
FBI warned the Clinton campaign that it was a target of a cyberattack
last March, just weeks before the Democratic National Committee
discovered it had been penetrated by hackers it now believes were
working for Russian intelligence, two sources who have been briefed on
the matter told Yahoo News.
In
a meeting with senior officials at the campaign’s Brooklyn
headquarters, FBI agents laid out concerns that cyberhackers had used
so-called spear-phishing emails as part of an attempt to penetrate the
campaign’s computers, the sources said. One of the sources said agents
conducting a national security investigation asked the Clinton campaign
to turn over internal computer logs as well as the personal email
addresses of senior campaign officials.
But the campaign, through its
lawyers, declined to provide the data, deciding that the FBI’s request
for sensitive personal and campaign information data was too broad and
intrusive, the source said.
A
second source who had been briefed on the matter and who confirmed the
Brooklyn meeting said agents provided no specific information to the
campaign about the identity of the cyberhackers or whether they were
associated with a foreign government. The source said the campaign was
already aware of attempts to penetrate its computers and had taken steps
to thwart them, emphasizing that there is still no evidence that the
campaign’s computers had actually been successfully penetrated.
But
the potential that the intruders were associated with a foreign
government should have come as no surprise to the Clinton campaign, said
several sources knowledgeable about the investigation. Chinese
intelligence hackers were widely reported to have penetrated both the
campaigns of Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008.
The
Brooklyn warning also could raise new questions about why the campaign
and the DNC didn’t take the matter more seriously. It came just four
months after the DNC had also been contacted by FBI agents alerting its
information technology specialists about a cyberattack on its computers,
the sources told Yahoo News. As with the warning to the Clinton
campaign, the FBI initially provided no details to the DNC....
By mid-May, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper was telling reporters that US. Intelligence officials “already had some indications” of hacks into political campaigns that were likely linked to foreign governments and that “we’ll probably have more.”
In
a talk at the Aspen Security Forum Thursday, Clapper said the U.S.
government is not “quite ready yet” to “make a public call” on who was
behind the cyberassault on the DNC, but he suggested one of “the usual
suspects” is likely to blame. “We don’t know enough [yet] to…ascribe a
motivation, regardless of who it may have been,” Clapper said....
Clapper is reportedly among a number of U.S. intelligence officials who
have resisted calls to publicly blame the Russians, viewing it as
likely the kind of activity that most intelligence agencies engage in. “[I’m] taken aback a bit by…the hyperventilation over this,” Clapper
said during his Aspen appearance, adding in a sarcastic tone, “I’m
shocked somebody did some hacking. That’s never happened before.”...
The
FBI’s request to turn over internal computer logs and personal email
information came at an awkward moment for the Clinton campaign, said the
source, familiar with the campaign’s internal deliberations. At the
time, the FBI was still actively and aggressively conducting a criminal
investigation into whether Clinton had compromised national security
secrets by sending classified emails through a private computer server
in the basement of her home in Chappaqua, N.Y. There were already press
reports, to date unconfirmed, that the investigation might have expanded
to include dealings relating to the Clinton Foundation. Campaign
officials had reason to fear that any production of campaign computer
logs and personal email accounts could be used to further such a probe.
At the Brooklyn meeting, FBI agents emphasized that the request for data
was unrelated to the separate probe into Clinton’s email server.
But
after deliberating about the bureau’s request, and in light of the lack
of details provided by the FBI and the absence of a subpoena, the Clinton campaign chose to turn down the bureau's request, the source
said."
............................
Added: "Mrs. Clinton has clearly
disqualified herself from ever coming near classified information
again....Having Clinton anywhere near
the White House is just not a good idea."
10/29/16, "Democrats should ask Clinton to step aside," Chicago Tribune, John Kass, opinion
"Has America become so numb by the decades of lies and cynicism oozing from Clinton Inc. that it could elect Hillary Clinton as president, even after Friday's FBI announcement that it had reopened an investigation of her emails while secretary of state? We'll find out soon enough.
It's obvious the American political system is breaking down.
It's
been crumbling for some time now, and the establishment elite know it
and they're properly frightened. Donald Trump, the vulgarian at their gates, is a symptom, not a cause. Hillary Clinton and husband Bill are both cause and effect.
FBI director James Comey's
announcement about the renewed Clinton email investigation is the
bombshell in the presidential campaign. That he announced this so close
to Election Day should tell every thinking person that what the FBI is
looking at is extremely serious.
This can't be about pervert Anthony Weiner and his
reported desire for a teenage girl. But it can be about the laptop of
Weiner's wife, Clinton aide Huma Abedin,
and emails between her and Hillary. It comes after the FBI
investigation in which Comey concluded Clinton had lied and been
"reckless" with national secrets, but said he could not recommend
prosecution.
So what should the Democrats do now?
If ruling Democrats hold themselves to the high moral standards they
impose on the people they govern, they would follow a simple process:
They would demand that Mrs. Clinton step down, immediately, and let her vice presidential nominee, Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia, stand in her place.
Democrats should say, honestly, that with a new criminal
investigation going on into events around her home-brew email server
from the time she was secretary of state, having Clinton anywhere near
the White House is just not a good idea.
Since Oct. 7, WikiLeaks has released 35,000 emails hacked from Clinton campaign boss John Podesta. Now WikiLeaks, no longer a neutral player but an active anti-Clinton agency, plans to release another 15,000 emails.
What
if she is elected? Think of a nation suffering a bad economy and
continuing chaos in the Middle East, and now also facing a criminal
investigation of a president. Add to that congressional investigations
and a public vision of Clinton as a Nixonian figure wandering the halls,
wringing her hands.
The best thing would be for Democrats to ask
her to step down now. It would be the most responsible thing to do, if
the nation were more important to them than power. And the American news
media--fairly or not firmly identified in the public mind as Mrs.
Clinton's political action committee--should begin demanding it.
But what will Hillary do?
She'll stick and ride this out and
turn her anger toward Comey. For Hillary and Bill Clinton, it has always
been about power, about the Clinton Restoration and protecting fortunes
already made by selling nothing but political influence.
She'll
remind the nation that she's a woman and that Donald Trump said terrible
things about women. If there is another notorious Trump video to be
leaked, the Clintons should probably leak it now.
Then her allies in
media can talk about misogyny and sexual politics and the headlines can
be all about Trump as the boor he is and Hillary as champion of female
victims, which she has never been.
Remember that Bill Clinton
leveraged the "Year of the Woman."
Then he preyed on women in the White
House and Hillary protected him. But the political left — most
particularly the women of the left — defended him because he promised to
protect abortion rights and their other agendas.
If you take a
step back from tribal politics, you'll see that Mrs. Clinton has clearly
disqualified herself from ever coming near classified information
again. If she were a young person straight out of grad school hoping to
land a government job, Hillary Clinton would be laughed out of
Washington with her record. She'd never be hired.
As secretary of
state she kept classified documents on the home-brew server in her
basement, which is against the law. She lied about it to the American
people. She couldn't remember details dozens of times when questioned by
the FBI. Her aides destroyed evidence by BleachBit and hammers. Her
husband, Bill, met secretly on an airport tarmac with Attorney General
Loretta Lynch for about a half-hour, and all they said they talked about
was golf and the grandkids.
And there was no prosecution of Hillary.
That isn't merely wrong and unethical. It is poisonous.
And
during this presidential campaign, Americans were confronted with a
two-tiered system of federal justice: one for standards for the Clintons
and one for the peasants.
I've always figured that, as secretary
of state, Clinton kept her home-brew email server — from which foreign
intelligence agencies could hack top secret information — so she could
shield the influence peddling that helped make the Clintons several
fortunes.
The Clintons weren't skilled merchants. They weren't
traders or manufacturers. The Clintons never produced anything tangible.
They had no science, patents or devices to make them millions upon
millions of dollars.
All they had to sell, really, was influence. And they used our federal government to leverage it.
If
a presidential election is as much about the people as it is about the
candidates, then we'll learn plenty about ourselves in the coming days,
won't we?"
.................
......
DNC two month computer security review began in September 2015. Experts found many flaws, made dozens of recommendations, DNC didn't act on any of them, thus allowing already present hackers to stay for nearly a year. DNC desperately needed to divert attention from themselves: "Cyber-security assessments can be a mixed
blessing. Legal experts say some general counsels advise organizations
against doing such assessments if they don’t have the ability to quickly
fix any problems the auditors find, because customers and shareholders
could have cause to sue if an organization knowingly disregards such warnings."
7/26/16, "Democrats Ignored Cybersecurity Warnings Before Theft," Bloomberg, Michael Riley
"The Democratic National Committee was warned last fall that its
computer network was susceptible to attacks but didn’t follow the
security advice it was given, according to three people familiar with
the matter.
The missed opportunity is another blow to party
officials already embarrassed by the theft and public disclosure of
e-mails that have disrupted their presidential nominating convention in
Philadelphia and led their chairwoman to resign.
Computer security
consultants hired by the DNC made dozens of recommendations after a
two-month review, the people said.
Following the advice, which would
typically include having specialists hunt for intruders on the network,
might have alerted party officials that hackers had been lurking in
their network for weeks -- hackers who would stay for nearly a year.
Instead, officials didn’t discover the breach until April....
Cyber-security assessments can be a mixed
blessing. Legal experts say some general counsels advise organizations
against doing such assessments if they don’t have the ability to quickly
fix any problems the auditors find, because customers and shareholders could have cause to sue if an organization knowingly disregards such warnings."...
............
.
10/29/16, "Democrats should ask Clinton to step aside," Chicago Tribune, John Kass, opinion
"Has America become so numb by the decades of lies and cynicism oozing from Clinton Inc. that it could elect Hillary Clinton as president, even after Friday's FBI announcement that it had reopened an investigation of her emails while secretary of state? We'll find out soon enough.
It's obvious the American political system is breaking down.
It's
been crumbling for some time now, and the establishment elite know it
and they're properly frightened. Donald Trump, the vulgarian at their gates, is a symptom, not a cause. Hillary Clinton and husband Bill are both cause and effect.
FBI director James Comey's
announcement about the renewed Clinton email investigation is the
bombshell in the presidential campaign. That he announced this so close
to Election Day should tell every thinking person that what the FBI is
looking at is extremely serious.
This can't be about pervert Anthony Weiner and his
reported desire for a teenage girl. But it can be about the laptop of
Weiner's wife, Clinton aide Huma Abedin,
and emails between her and Hillary. It comes after the FBI
investigation in which Comey concluded Clinton had lied and been
"reckless" with national secrets, but said he could not recommend
prosecution.
So what should the Democrats do now?
If ruling Democrats hold themselves to the high moral standards they
impose on the people they govern, they would follow a simple process:
They would demand that Mrs. Clinton step down, immediately, and let her vice presidential nominee, Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia, stand in her place.
Democrats should say, honestly, that with a new criminal
investigation going on into events around her home-brew email server
from the time she was secretary of state, having Clinton anywhere near
the White House is just not a good idea.
Since Oct. 7, WikiLeaks has released 35,000 emails hacked from Clinton campaign boss John Podesta. Now WikiLeaks, no longer a neutral player but an active anti-Clinton agency, plans to release another 15,000 emails.
What
if she is elected? Think of a nation suffering a bad economy and
continuing chaos in the Middle East, and now also facing a criminal
investigation of a president. Add to that congressional investigations
and a public vision of Clinton as a Nixonian figure wandering the halls,
wringing her hands.
The best thing would be for Democrats to ask
her to step down now. It would be the most responsible thing to do, if
the nation were more important to them than power. And the American news
media--fairly or not firmly identified in the public mind as Mrs.
Clinton's political action committee--should begin demanding it.
But what will Hillary do?
She'll stick and ride this out and
turn her anger toward Comey. For Hillary and Bill Clinton, it has always
been about power, about the Clinton Restoration and protecting fortunes
already made by selling nothing but political influence.
She'll
remind the nation that she's a woman and that Donald Trump said terrible
things about women. If there is another notorious Trump video to be
leaked, the Clintons should probably leak it now.
Then her allies in
media can talk about misogyny and sexual politics and the headlines can
be all about Trump as the boor he is and Hillary as champion of female
victims, which she has never been.
Remember that Bill Clinton
leveraged the "Year of the Woman."
Then he preyed on women in the White
House and Hillary protected him. But the political left — most
particularly the women of the left — defended him because he promised to
protect abortion rights and their other agendas.
If you take a
step back from tribal politics, you'll see that Mrs. Clinton has clearly
disqualified herself from ever coming near classified information
again. If she were a young person straight out of grad school hoping to
land a government job, Hillary Clinton would be laughed out of
Washington with her record. She'd never be hired.
As secretary of
state she kept classified documents on the home-brew server in her
basement, which is against the law. She lied about it to the American
people.
She couldn't remember details dozens of times when questioned by
the FBI. Her aides destroyed evidence by BleachBit and hammers. Her
husband, Bill, met secretly on an airport tarmac with Attorney General
Loretta Lynch for about a half-hour, and all they said they talked about
was golf and the grandkids.
And there was no prosecution of Hillary.
That isn't merely wrong and unethical. It is poisonous.
And
during this presidential campaign, Americans were confronted with a
two-tiered system of federal justice: one for standards for the Clintons
and one for the peasants.
I've always figured that, as secretary
of state, Clinton kept her home-brew email server — from which foreign
intelligence agencies could hack top secret information — so she could
shield the influence peddling that helped make the Clintons several
fortunes.
The Clintons weren't skilled merchants. They weren't
traders or manufacturers. The Clintons never produced anything tangible.
They had no science, patents or devices to make them millions upon
millions of dollars.
All they had to sell, really, was influence. And they used our federal government to leverage it.
If
a presidential election is as much about the people as it is about the
candidates, then we'll learn plenty about ourselves in the coming days,
won't we?"
.....................
.
Trump 46
Hillary 42
Johnson 4
Stein 2
Independent Florida voters
Trump 45
Hillary 33
Johnson 9
Stein 4
Oct. 25-27, 2016 (Tu-Th), 814 likely Florida voters, error margin 3.4.
(32D, 34R, 31 Ind.) Male 46, female 54 (+8 female). White 64, Black 11, Latino 16. Land line and cell phone (45%) interviews.
10/30/16, "New York Times-Siena College Poll"
.........................
10/30/16, "Latest Upshot Poll Shows Trump With a Lead in Florida," NY Times, Nate Cohn
"A New York Times Upshot/Siena poll released Sunday...gives Mr. Trump a four-point
lead in Florida, 46 percent to 42 percent, in a four-way race. In our
first poll of Florida a month ago, Mr. Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by a
percentage point....
The poll is not the only one to show Mr. Trump in the lead. A Bloomberg/Selzer poll, which is methodologically similar to the New York Times Upshot/Siena poll, showed Mr. Trump with a two-point edge last week."...
Mr. Trump won 86 percent of self-identified
Republicans — the highest percentage of that group in any Upshot/Siena
survey so far this year.
He had the support of 84 percent of registered
Republicans, up from 72 percent in September and also the highest of any
Upshot/Siena survey this year.
Mr. Trump’s consolidation of Republican-leaning
voters is a trend in national surveys, and it comes alongside a
corresponding decline in the number of supporters for Gary Johnson, the
Libertarian candidate, who received just 4 percent of the vote in our
survey — the lowest of any Upshot/Siena poll. Republicans have been
likelier than Democrats to support Mr. Johnson in most of our polls.
Even college-educated white voters, who have
been skeptical of Mr. Trump nationwide, are showing less skepticism in
Florida. He has a lead of 51 percent to 35 percent among those voters in
our survey.
Clinton weakness among white working-class Democrats.
Mr. Trump leads among white voters without a
college degree by an impressive margin of 63 percent to 24 percent. He’s
so strong that Mrs. Clinton has just 55 percent of the vote among white registered Democrats without a degree, compared with Mr. Trump’s 32
percent.
The combination of Republican unity and a large dissenting vote among registered Democrats is responsible for Mr. Trump’s lead."...
NY Times Siena Poll Methodology: Poll used 2012 turnout model: "The turnout score was based on
a model of turnout in the 2012 presidential election. The probabilities were applied to 2016."
Siena: "Self-identified independents have moved from leaning to Trump by two
points to now giving the Republican a twelve point advantage
as support
for Johnson has been cut in half,” said Siena College Poll Director Don
Levy. “Trump has extended his lead with men from nine points to 18 and
cut into Clinton’s advantage among women, trimming it from ten to seven
points."
.......
.
10/29/16, "Donald Trump and Mike Pence Stride Confidently Amid Surging Support, Polls and Crowds," tcth, sundance
Among to above post:
"kingjulianx says:
We are having huge sign problems now in
Brevard county Florida! Every Republican candidate is being taken now
“not just Trump and Pence”. But little do they know we just got a
shitload more signs today that we are attaching a little gift for the
sign thieves."
Below, Brevard County, Florida
..............
Use the Skunk Lock bicycle lock. Makes the thief throw up."
........................
"law4lifeblog says:
We put carpet tack strips all around our signs, with nails pointing out…."
.................
Below, a man in Florida received an electric shock while trying to steal a booby trapped Trump sign:
9/30/16, "Man electrocuted while trying to steal booby trapped Trump sign," WDBO, Orlando, Fla., news965.com, Samantha Jordan
"A very annoyed Donald Trump supporter has built a wall of electricity to protect his campaign sign from thieves.
A video posted to YouTube
[You Tube has removed the video] shows a neighbor attempting to steal the Trump sign from a yard. The
owner says his signs have been stolen and vandalized in the past, so he
decided to booby trap his newest one.
Surveillance video captures
the hoodie-wearing neighbor trying to take the sign...and he's
instantly shocked! He then turns and runs away.
The homeowner claims that the man has been charged with trespassing. Watch the video HERE."
[Comment: Oct. 30, 2016: You Tube has removed the video. The above image is a screen shot from the now removed video, via WDBO. I saw the video before it was removed. The hooded guy is first seen walking along the street at the top of the photo, as he walks he eyes the Trump sign, disappears down the street, then comes back, heads for the property with the Trump sign, puts his hand on the sign, then immediately jumps several inches. Susan]
................
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Trump 46.2
Hillary 43.8
Oct. 29, 2016, USC Dornsife LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak Poll
"About the Survey✝
The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll is part of the ongoing Understanding America Study: (UAS) at the University of
Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
and the Los Angeles Times.
Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election
panel to answer three predictive questions:
What is the percent chance that… (1) you will vote in the presidential
election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and
(3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in,
we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of
all of the prior week’s responses. To find out more about what lies
behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra
questions
about their preferences and values. The team responsible for the USC
Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll four years ago developed
the
successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based
on the same methodology."
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"All bets are
off in terms of what those people would do to hold onto what they've
got....It's a massive, massive undertaking to wrest control from the
establishment, from the elites...and that
happening is closer to reality than anybody ever dreamed it would be."
10/28/16,
"It's All on the Line for the Establishment in This Election -- And They'll Do Anything to Influence the Outcome," Rush Limbaugh
"RUSH: Folks, I want you to be very, very aware of something. I
wouldn't put anything past anybody on the left in this election. I'm
here to tell you, as much as we have talked about it, I don't think
we've gotten close to describing and nailing the sheer panic that exists
on the left at the thought of losing this....
If you were about to lose
everything, if you knew that you were going to lose everything in a week
to 10 days, what would you be thinking, what would you be doing, how
would that affect you? That's what we're talking about here.
Being in the establishment, being in the political power structure is
everything. People in that club or in that group of people, it is how
they derive practically 100 percent of their self-worth. It is how they
derive their standard of living, their lifestyle. It is how they secure
the future for their kids. This network of wires and conventions and connections, networking and
so forth, is how they live.
It's how they insulate themselves from the
everyday forces of life that people not in that club don't have as much
ability to insulate themselves. And it's a very, very special thing to
be in the establishment. Oftentimes you get in there by birth, you get
in by family name, you get in by resume, you get in by where you went
to school. A lot of it is legacy. You're in it because your parents or
your family was in it.
It's very rare for outsiders to come in and crash it and stay there. It happens. But it's very rare. If you're on the verge of losing
everything -- and whether it's everything for real or not, but in your
mind, losing this election means you lose everything....And for people on our side, it's the country....And this election, to
many people, represents a closing down of those opportunities because of
a dramatic transformation of the country.
People inside the establishment don't depend on the country, they don't
depend on the principles of the founding per se. They depend on the
connections being in the club gives them....
The United States of America, with its focus on individual freedom
and liberty, merit-based achievement, all of that, that has been what
has made the United States exceptional and different from practically
all other nations in human history on earth. And if we are to lose that
status by virtue of losing an election because the people who will win
want to close off those opportunities, want to basically say that
America as founded is corrupt, America as founded is unfair, America
needs to be transformed -- and you know the drill...
So people on our side have the same attitude about this election that
people in the establishment do; but the people in the establishment
have much more power, individually and within their group. They run
everything. And the prospect of losing it, I cannot describe to you the
kind of fear and panic it causes. And that's why I think all bets are
off in terms of what those people would do to hold onto what they've
got. It's human nature.
And I just want to reemphasize this, because there's still a lot of
time, and there's a lot of tricks that can still be pulled. What
happens, let's say here's the Washington Post tracking poll,
Hillary's lost eight points in four days, and they're all out there
making a big deal of it. I could cite you a lot of other polls where a
similar downward trajectory by Mrs. Clinton is taking place. What
happens if the polls on Monday or Tuesday next week show her regaining
it all, how are you gonna feel? You're gonna say, "Aw, no, oh, no."
You're gonna be one measure of angry, another measure of depressed. And I just want to take the occasion of the program here today again to
once again tell you, nobody knows. It isn't over. There are too many
factors in this election that do not have enough precedents for there to
be accurate projections, predictions, calculations. That's primarily
because of the presence of Trump....
So let's deal with what we have today. If the polls change
dramatically and the other way next week, we'll deal with that if that
happens. Not gonna predict it; I just want to warn you that they will
do anything. "They" -- meaning the Democrats and Republicans, the
Washington-New York-Boston power corridor -- are not going to just sit
by and let this happen. They're going to do everything they can to
influence the outcome. They have the power to do so. That's one of the
perks of being in the establishment. You run the American political system. You run the government.
It's a massive, massive undertaking to wrest control from the
establishment, from the elites, from the ruling class -- and that
happening is closer to reality than anybody ever dreamed it would be.
Hence all the panic out there, particularly on the Hillary side things."....
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Comment: Rush Limbaugh himself is a member of the Establishment. He could've taken down the Establishment a long time ago if he wanted to, but obviously has chosen not to do so. He likes his life the way it is. For people like me, he's an occasional Aspirin to ease the pain. He's uniquely able to consume massive amounts of information, see the important points, and converse about them every day.
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