5/1/16, "Indiana Republican Primary Forecasts," 538.com
"According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 69% chance of winning the Indiana primary." projects.538.com
"Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each
candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown
below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances:
For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of
each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.
Not all polls
are created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages.
The weights account for
the quality of each poll based on its track record and its
methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how
recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily
than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a
tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the
average of other polls.
For the Indiana Republican primary, we’ve collected eight polls.
Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest
polling averages."...(NBC WSJ Marist, ARG, Clout, YouGov, Fox News,
Public Opinion Strategies, IPFW, Bellwether Research and Consulting)