'ClimateGate 3.0: UK Met Office calls out UEA for claiming global warming causes extreme weather'

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3/17/13, "Climategate 3.0: MetOffice rebukes UEA for claiming global warming causes extreme weather," Junk Science, Steve Milloy

"“There seems to be little robust evidence either of any change to date, or of a significant change in the future.”

The e-mail is below.
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cc: “‘m.hulme@uea.ac.uk’”
date: Fri, 01 Oct 1999 10:22:12 +0100
from: “Jenkins, Geoff”
subject: TV prog
to: “‘m.kelly@uea.ac.uk’”

Mick

I saw the Nick Ross TV programme about weather disasters earlier in the week- there seems to be a weather disaster programme on every night these days although they all seem to be more human-interest than science. I thought you
made some very unequivocal statements along the lines of global warming leading to more crazy weather. I can’t remember your words, but it came across as pretty certain to me (and, more importantly, to my mum Mrs Averageviewer).

What do you base your views on? Warming will probably lead to a greater frequency of temperatures above a certain limit (eg 30C) as the whole pdf moves up, but we don’t know if the pdf itself will change. There are clear indications from models that there will be a greater frequency of heavy rain
days – although interestingly the RCM (which does a much better job of simulating today’s rainfall distributions) the frequency doesnt change half as much as in the GCM. And there are some signs from Tom Karl (and Mike Hulme’s recent work) 
of this in the obs. But on the real crazy waether stuff (gales, storms, hurricanes, tornadoes etc) there seems to be little robust evidence either of any change to date, or of a significant change in the future.

I hope I’m not being too precious about this! but I think we need to give the public the right message – even if its a load of unsexy boring uncertainties.

I’m copying this to Mike in case he wants to join in.

Cheers
Geoff
Geoff Jenkins

Head, Climate Prediction Programme
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Met. Office

BRACKNELL RG12 2SZ
UK
Tel: +44 1344 85 6653
Fax: +44 1344 85 4898


http://www.meto.gov.uk/sec5/sec5pg1.html" via Tom Nelson

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Ed. note: I tried the link above but it went to a dead Met Office location. I'll try to find a fresh link later.