Monday, August 22, 2016

Trump and Bill Clinton's wife in statistical tie in Ohio, August 18-21, 2016 Monmouth poll, 4.9% error margin. Trump 39, Bill's wife 43

Trump 39
Bill Clinton's wife 43
Johnson 10

August 18-21, 2016, 402 likely Ohio voters, 4.9% error margin, live phone interviews on landlines and cell phones, 352 names drawn from list of reg. voters. 52 female, 48 male. Self reported 29R, 33D, 37Ind. White 83, Black 12, Hispanic 3. Poll questions and results.

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8/22/16, "Clinton Holds Small Edge; Portman Leads for Senate," Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray, W. Long Branch, NJ. @PollsterPatrick on Twitter

"Hillary Clinton holds a slim 4 point lead over Donald Trump in the perennial battleground state of Ohio. In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent senator Rob Portman has an 8 point lead over former governor Ted Strickland. The candidates for president and senate are experiencing varying degrees of success in appealing to the typical Buckeye worker.... 

Among Ohio voters likely to cast ballots in November's presidential election, 43% currently support Clinton and 39% back Trump. Another 10% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, who will appear as an independent on the ballot, and less than one percent are supporting Jill Stein of the Green Party. Another 8% are undecided.

Trump does almost as well as Clinton in getting the backing of fellow partisans, with 83% of Republicans supporting their party's nominee and 88% of Democrats backing their standard bearer.  Independents are evenly split at 35% for Trump and 35% for Clinton, with 20% supporting Johnson....

"Ohio has been nip and tuck for nearly every presidential election since 1992.  As of right now, it looks like that tradition will continue," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute....

Both nominees are trying to appeal to the working class voter that typifies Ohio. Clinton has a small edge when it comes to "looking out for the little guy" - although opinion is not overwhelmingly positive for either candidate. Just over 4-in-10 (42%) say Clinton would do a good job at this while 50% say she would do a bad job. Slightly fewer voters (38%) say Trump would do a good job looking out for the little guy while 53% say he would do a bad job.

Turning to the U.S. Senate race, the Monmouth University Poll finds GOP incumbent Rob Portman with a 48% to 40% lead over former Democratic governor Ted Strickland....Independents prefer Portman by 47% to 37%.

Both candidates are making a pitch for the support of organized labor, with Portman having picked up a number of key union endorsements. A majority of Ohio voters trust Portman to represent the interests of workers in the state either a lot (21%) or a little (44%), with just 23% saying they do not trust the Republican incumbent to do this. Strickland doesn't do quite as well on this metric - 15% trust him a lot and 41% trust him a little, while 35% say they do not trust the Democratic challenger to represent workers' interests....

"Neither candidate has a prominent profile despite Portman's nearly six years as the state's senator and Strickland's four years in the Statehouse."...said Murray.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from August 18 to 21 2016 with 402 Ohio residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ."


"The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from August 18 to 21, 2016 with a random sample of 402 likely Ohio voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 352 drawn from a list of registered voters (202 landline /150 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews."


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