Trump ahead by 7 points in Arizona, CNN ORC poll, August 18-23, 2016. Among independent Arizona voters, the largest group polled, Trump leads by 15 points

 

Trump 45
Hillary 38
Johnson 12
Stein 4  

 

p. 20, Independent voters (a larger group than either R or D, p. 7)

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Trump 43
Hillary 28
Johnson 18 

8/24/16, "Arizona," CNN ORC poll

August 18-23, 2016, 809 likely Arizona voters, live interviews, 60% landlines, 40% cell phones, 3.5% error margin. Among likely voters, self described 218 D, 312 Ind., 279 R (p. 7)
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Added: Below are initial CNN headline results of "registered voters" reflecting only a 5 point lead for Trump. Later results of more accurate "likely voters" expanded his lead to 7:
 

 8/24/16, Sahil Kapur twitter



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