Thursday, April 21, 2016

Trump leads all California regions, April 11-14, 2016, Capitol Weekly Sextant Open California poll: Trump 41, Cruz 23, Kasich 21. LA county non-white voters also prefer Trump: Trump 38, Cruz 25, Kasich 21

Trump 41
Cruz 23
Kasich 21

LA County non-white, p.7:

Trump 38%
Cruz  25
Kasich 21

Poll dates April 11-14, 2016, 1165 high propensity registered California Republican voters, online poll by Sextant Research for Open California. In separate poll of 466 California Republicans registered since 1/1/16, Trump leads with 53%

4/21/16, "Poll: Trump leads in GOP primary," Capitol Weekly, Jonathan Brown

"Our California poll of 1,165 high propensity Republican voters has Trump currently atop the leader board by a comfortable margin. In the survey, conducted April 11 through April 14, Trump receives 41% of the vote, to Ted Cruz’s 23% and John Kasich’s 21%.  A separate sample of 466 Republicans registered since the turn of the New Year has Trump ahead 53%-21%-15%, indicating that Trump’s overall lead among the expected turnout is a few points greater....

A comparison of California’s primary to the election we just saw in New York is justified for two reasons: The systems in each state are similar and, as our recent poll suggests, another Trump sweep could be in the offing here.

Of course, winning the state overall isn’t the hole-in-one it is in the winner-take-all states. California awards its delegates on a winner-take-all basis in each Congressional District – 53 concurrent holes of match play.

Even with our robust sample of more than 1,000 likely voters, it’s still not enough to look at individual districts. And some districts have so few voters we may never see significant polling. But, to enhance our findings we combined districts based on contiguity and common demographics as a way to interpret what might happen on a district-by-district basis.

Click here to see the complete poll and its methodology. Click here to see the cross tabs.

Statewide, Trump leads.

In each region, Trump leads. His strongest support is in the Inland Empire (Congressional Districts 8, 31, 35, 36, 41), Los Angeles County, and Northern California (Districts 1, 2, 3, 4).  Ted Cruz’s best opportunity is in the Central Valley (Districts 9, 10, 16, 21, 22, 23) where he trails Trump only by seven points and gets his biggest vote (28%).  The Central Coast (Districts 20, 24, 26) give the best shot to Kasich, where he is only five points back.  

While Cruz is in second overall, Kasich is stronger in more urban areas just as he was in New York.  The Ohio Governor is in second in the Bay Area, LA County and San Diego County.

While there are a lot of holes left for these candidates to play, and sand traps and water hazards abound, The Donald may be hoisting a big trophy at Trump National on June 7.

Other notes from the poll:


Real Clear Politics California Republican Primary polls, average


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