"The poll was conducted November 18-20 for CNN by ORC International."
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11/27/13, "Democrats Should Be Afraid, Very Afraid," Walter Russell Mead, American Interest
"Democrats have good reason to be skittish about the ACA. As CNN reports, Democratic strength in next year’s midterm elections has just taken a ten point hit:
"Democrats a month ago held a 50%–42% advantage among registered voters in a generic ballot, which asked respondents to choose between a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district without identifying the candidates.
"That result came after congressional Republicans appeared to overplay their hand in the bitter fight over the federal government shutdown and the debt ceiling.
But the Democratic lead has disappeared. A new CNN/ORC poll indicates the GOP now holds a 49%–47% edge."
This is big news. In 2010 the GOP trailed by six on the generic ballot question and picked up 60 seats, but now it holds a lead on the generic ballot. Democrats, in other words, have taken a greater hit from the health care fiasco than the GOP did from the government shutdown. Things could still turn around before November 2014, and in the meantime there will probably be various mini-surges in public support, website functionality, and other areas.
But the terrible first impression of the law has been deeply damaging, and Democrats will have a hard time putting it behind them. Part of what’s happening is that voters unhappy with the slow economic recovery are probably feeling the health care mess as a trigger event that finally convinces them that the Obama administration has been a disappointment. And there’s going to be enough noise from the continuing cancellations, doc shock, and rate shock—whether history ultimately considers them speed bumps or signs that the wheels were falling off—to sustain much of the anger the rollout has generated.
That anger could have two consequences next fall: upscale voters turn out more in midterms, and their turnout is going to be higher than usual because of the intensity of their feelings about health care. As the CNN poll notes, upscale voters are the ones least likely to be affected by good news about the uninsured who the law ends up helping, so the spikes and network restrictions affecting them directly could wind up being more determinative of their position on the ACA than whatever ends up happening with those previously uninsured.
Things change, but right now the outlook favors bad weather."
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Comment: Mr. Mead says the CNN poll makes a conclusion about "upscale voters." If it can make such a conclusion, it's not evident in the poll questions.
The only two income categories in the poll are "under $50K" and "over $50K" (page 4.) $55K before taxes doesn't mean you or your family are "upscale." Secondly, the poll uses uneven samples on the income question (page 4):
Democrat: Under $50,000, 55%, Over $50,000 39%
Republican: Under $50,000, 41%, Over $50,000 55%
Allegedly "upscale" $50K+ and therefore "unconcerned" persons (who also happen to be Republican) are sampled at a 16 point advantage in the CNN poll. Also on page 4, the "rural" sample is 60% Republican, 31% Democrat. I don't see how the poll proves these "rural" people are also rich.
Methodology on p. 3 states: "Among the entire
sample, 31% described themselves as Democrats,
23% described themselves as Republicans,
and 46% described themselves as Independents
or members of another party.
Crosstabs on the following pages only include results
for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce
a sampling error of +/-8.5 percentage points or less."
Added: "Upscale voters turn out more in midterms," per Mr. Mead. I'll remember his words the next time someone says only "extremists" vote in midterms.
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11/26/13, "CNN/ORC poll: Democrats lose 2014 edge following Obamacare uproar," CNN, Political Ticker blog, Paul Steinhauser
"What a difference a month makes. A new CNN/ORC International poll indicates a dramatic turnaround in the battle for control of Congress in next year's midterm elections.
Democrats a month ago held a 50%-42% advantage among registered voters in a generic ballot, which asked respondents to choose between a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district without identifying the candidates.
That result came after congressional Republicans appeared to overplay their hand in the bitter fight over the federal government shutdown and the debt ceiling.
But the Democratic lead has disappeared. A new CNN/ORC poll indicates the GOP now holds a 49%-47% edge.
The new survey was conducted last week and released Tuesday.
The 10-point swing follows a political uproar over Obamacare, which included the botched rollout of HealthCare.gov and controversy over insurance policy cancelations due primarily to the new health law.
The turnaround in the CNN/ORC poll follows similar shifts in recent national surveys from Quinnipiac University and Fox News.
At a news conference two weeks ago, President Barack Obama acknowledged that problems plaguing the startup of the new healthcare law could hurt Democrats.
"There is no doubt that our failure to rollout the ACA smoothly has put a burden on Democrats, whether they are running or not because they stood up and supported this effort through thick and thin," Obama said.
The CNN/ORC poll, released as the President makes a West Coast campaign fundraising swing on behalf of fellow Democrats, indicates both parties making gains within their base.
"It looks like the biggest shifts toward the Republicans came among white voters, higher-income Americans, and people who live in rural areas, while Democrats have gained strength in the past month among some of their natural constituencies, such as non-white voters and lower-income Americans," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
"If those patterns persist into 2014, it may indicate that Obamacare is popular among those who it was designed to help the most, but unpopular among the larger group of voters who are personally less concerned about health insurance and health care," Holland said."...
[Ed. note: The CNN polling "expert" is dreaming. He concludes "white voters," "people who live in rural areas," and persons with "higher income" are less concerned "personally" about "health insurance" and "health care." A white person and rural persons don't care about insurance or health? What is "higher income?" He uses this label when many he's smearing are likely barely middle class, can't afford the insurance themselves and are slipping daily into poverty. The poll doesn't prove "upscale" or even $55,000 earners are also "rural." Lives of actual wealthy people aren't affected by the law. The CNN expert implies ObamaCare is about "health care" which it's not. At best it's about health insurance.]
(continuing): "Republicans currently have a 17-seat advantage in the U.S. House with the Democrats holding a 55-45 majority in the Senate.
While the generic ballot question is one of the most commonly used indicators when it comes to the battle for Congress, the poll results are a long way from predicting what will happen next November.
"There is just under a year to go before any votes are actually cast and the 'generic ballot' question is not necessarily a good predictor of the actual outcome of 435 separate elections," Holland cautions.
"A year before the 2010 midterms, for example, the Democrats held a six-point lead on the generic ballot but the GOP wound up regaining control of the House in that election cycle, thanks to an historic 63-seat pickup," he said.
The poll was conducted November 18-20 for CNN by ORC International, with 843 adult Americans, including 749 registered voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."
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