4/11/13, "Report: Global warming didn't cause big US drought," AP Seth Borenstein
"Last year's huge drought was a freak of nature that wasn't caused by man-made global warming, a new federal science study finds.
Scientists say the lack of moisture usually pushed up from the Gulf of Mexico was the main reason for the drought in the nation's midsection.
Thursday's report by dozens of scientists from five different federal agencies looked into why forecasters didn't see the drought coming. The researchers concluded that it was so unusual and unpredictable that it couldn't have been forecast.
"This is one of those events that comes along once every couple hundreds of years," said lead author Martin Hoerling, a research meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "Climate change was not a significant part, if any, of the event."
Researchers focused on six states — Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa — but the drought spread much farther and eventually included nearly two-thirds of the Lower 48 states. For the six states, the drought was the worst four-month period for lack of rainfall since records started being kept in 1895, Hoerling said.
He said the jet stream that draws moisture north from the Gulf was stuck unusually north in Canada. Other scientists have linked recent changes in the jet stream to shrinking Arctic sea ice, but Hoerling and study co-author Richard Seager of Columbia University said those global warming connections are not valid.
Hoerling used computer simulations to see if he could replicate the drought using man-made global warming conditions. He couldn't. So that means it was a random event, he said....
Hoerling noted that in the past 20 years, the world is seeing more La Ninas, the occasional cooling of the central Pacific Ocean that is the flip side of El Nino. Hoerling said that factor, not part of global warming but part of a natural cycle, increases the chances of such droughts."...via Real Science, via Climate Depot
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Following is the link provided on the above AP report:
2013, "Drought Task Force Report," "An Interpretation of the Origins of the 2012 Central Great Plains Drought"
"This NOAA Drought Task Force report was produced in partnership with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).
The NOAA Drought Task Force is organized by the NOAA/CPO Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program.
Click here
for more information about the report, the Drought Task Force, or the
Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program"
===================================
In July 2012, Seth Borenstein's AP headline and opening sentences sold climate terror:
7/3/12, "This US summer is 'what global warming looks like'," AP, Seth Borenstein
"If you want a glimpse of some of the worst of global warming, scientists suggest taking a look at U.S. weather in recent weeks.
Horrendous wildfires. Oppressive heat waves. Devastating droughts. Flooding from giant deluges. And a powerful freak wind storm called a derecho."...
----------------------------------
The July 2012 AP article quotes experts and concludes, "the vast majority of mainstream climate scientists" agree that , "This is what global warming is like, and we'll see more of this..." Borenstein says in passing, "it's far too early to say" for sure that it's global warming...."But..." "mainstream" scientists say it is. Now, 9 months later, "mainstream" scientists say it isn't. Not much at stake, just strangulation of the US taxpayer.
----------------------------------------
Roger Pielke Sr. commented on Borensteins' July 2012 climate terror claims:
7/3/12, "Comment On Seth Borenstein AP News Article “This US Summer Is ‘What Global Warming Looks Like’,” Roger Pielke, Sr.
"Image of drought in July 1936 from NOAA NCDC"...
Seth Borenstein, by not including the diversity of perspectives on the current extreme weather, is not objectively reporting on this newsworthy weather event. The current heat and drought are not unprecedented. Moreover, the message should be that we need to prepare for such droughts, regardless of the role humans have in possibly altering their intensity and extent."...
Roger Pielke Sr. has a PhD in meteorology and "was elected a Fellow of the AMS in 1982 and a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union in 2004. From 1993-1996, he served as Editor-in-Chief of the US National Science Report to the IUGG (1991-1994) for the American Geophysical Union. From January 1996 to December 2000, he served as Co-Chief Editor of the Journal of Atmospheric Science."
============================
In Nov. 2012 a peer reviewed study stated drought hadn't increased in past 60 years, said incorrect measurements had led to opposite view:
11/14/12, "Little change in global drought over the past 60 years," Nature
---------------------------------------------
News report expands on Nature study above, notes Palmer index isn't useful for long term predictions:
11/19/12, "Study: Drought Trends, Estimates Possibly Overstated Due To Inaccurate Science," washington,cbslocal.com
"An index frequently used by scientists to predict drought trends – trends whose increased frequency and intensity were blamed on global warming – may have been misused, resulting in possibly inaccurate findings.
The Palmer Drought Severity Index is primarily used by scientists to keep track of short-term drought trends. Researchers at Princeton University have now found that the index may not properly reflect what’s to come....
“The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change.”"...
---------------------------------------------
Following are examples of historical Palmer Drought Index maps provided by NOAA/NCDC:
July 2012 (supposedly 'what global warming looks like'):
===================================
In July 2012, Seth Borenstein's AP headline and opening sentences sold climate terror:
7/3/12, "This US summer is 'what global warming looks like'," AP, Seth Borenstein
"If you want a glimpse of some of the worst of global warming, scientists suggest taking a look at U.S. weather in recent weeks.
Horrendous wildfires. Oppressive heat waves. Devastating droughts. Flooding from giant deluges. And a powerful freak wind storm called a derecho."...
----------------------------------
The July 2012 AP article quotes experts and concludes, "the vast majority of mainstream climate scientists" agree that , "This is what global warming is like, and we'll see more of this..." Borenstein says in passing, "it's far too early to say" for sure that it's global warming...."But..." "mainstream" scientists say it is. Now, 9 months later, "mainstream" scientists say it isn't. Not much at stake, just strangulation of the US taxpayer.
----------------------------------------
Roger Pielke Sr. commented on Borensteins' July 2012 climate terror claims:
7/3/12, "Comment On Seth Borenstein AP News Article “This US Summer Is ‘What Global Warming Looks Like’,” Roger Pielke, Sr.
"Image of drought in July 1936 from NOAA NCDC"...
Seth Borenstein, by not including the diversity of perspectives on the current extreme weather, is not objectively reporting on this newsworthy weather event. The current heat and drought are not unprecedented. Moreover, the message should be that we need to prepare for such droughts, regardless of the role humans have in possibly altering their intensity and extent."...
Roger Pielke Sr. has a PhD in meteorology and "was elected a Fellow of the AMS in 1982 and a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union in 2004. From 1993-1996, he served as Editor-in-Chief of the US National Science Report to the IUGG (1991-1994) for the American Geophysical Union. From January 1996 to December 2000, he served as Co-Chief Editor of the Journal of Atmospheric Science."
============================
In Nov. 2012 a peer reviewed study stated drought hadn't increased in past 60 years, said incorrect measurements had led to opposite view:
11/14/12, "Little change in global drought over the past 60 years," Nature
---------------------------------------------
News report expands on Nature study above, notes Palmer index isn't useful for long term predictions:
11/19/12, "Study: Drought Trends, Estimates Possibly Overstated Due To Inaccurate Science," washington,cbslocal.com
"An index frequently used by scientists to predict drought trends – trends whose increased frequency and intensity were blamed on global warming – may have been misused, resulting in possibly inaccurate findings.
The Palmer Drought Severity Index is primarily used by scientists to keep track of short-term drought trends. Researchers at Princeton University have now found that the index may not properly reflect what’s to come....
“The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change.”"...
---------------------------------------------
Following are examples of historical Palmer Drought Index maps provided by NOAA/NCDC:
July 2012 (supposedly 'what global warming looks like'):
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