Thursday, November 3, 2016

Trump 44, Hillary 41, Virginia Oct. 26-30, 2016, Hampton University poll. Hillary had 12 point lead in Virginia a month ago, now trails by 3. Trump up 11 points in trustworthiness, Hillary down by 3

Trump 44
Hillary 41
Gary Johnson-Not mentioned in poll, though he was endorsed by Virginia newspaper, Richmond Times-Dispatch on Sept. 4, 2016
Don't know 15

Trump up 10 points from one month ago, Hillary down 5 points. The poll commenced 2 days before the FBI announcement, so there are no questions about it in the poll. It does ask the usual question, is the candidate trustworthy? Hillary: Yes 34, No 64. Trump: Yes 42, No 56. A month earlier, same question: Hillary: Yes 37, No 59. Trump: Yes 31, No 65. So Trump gained 11 points in trustworthiness. Hillary lost 3 points in trustworthiness

Oct. 26-20, 2016 (W-Sun), 802 likely Virginia voters, error margin 4.57, land line and cell phone 50-50. Male 48, female 52. White 70, Black 17, Hispanic 5, More than 1 race 4 
11/2/16, "Hampton University's CPP Latest Poll Shows VA Voter Shift from Clinton to Trump Post Email Investigation," Hampton University, Hampton, Virginia

"The latest Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP) poll reveals that the FBI’s decision to reopen the Hillary Clinton email investigation may have triggered a boost for Donald Trump with likely voters in Virginia.

Democratic Presidential nominee Clinton had a two point lead before the email news story broke on Friday Oct. 28. She is now trailing three points behind Republican Presidential nominee Trump.

With only six days left before the November Presidential election, Trump has jumped ahead of Clinton, erasing a 12 point deficit reported by the CPP in early October.  This surge for Trump demonstrates again how erratic the run for the White House has been as we head into the final days of Decision 2016. This is the first time Clinton has trailed in the CPP polls this year, the latest poll was conducted Oct. 26-30.

When Virginians were asked if the election were held today, 44 percent of those surveyed would vote for Trump and 41 percent would choose Clinton, while a high percentage of voters remain undecided (15 percent). This is a major shift from just one month ago when Clinton led Trump by 12 points. (CPP poll, October 2016 - Clinton 46 percent , Trump 34 percent).

It must be noted that the poll began on Wednesday, Oct. 26, with 13 days to go before the election. During this time, the news story about the FBI reopening the investigation into email servers used by Clinton was released on Friday, October 28th. While details were scarce, the news did have an impact on the data collected during this time.

Most Virginians felt the top priority of the next President of the United States, no matter who it is should be working to improve the economy (47 percent) and create jobs followed by healthcare (19 percent)....

The poll was conducted by the Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP) from October 26- 30, 2016 questioning 802 registered voters who said they were “likely” to vote on November 8, 2016 in the Virginia General Election.

The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.57% for the full sample.

The HU Center for Public Policy is an objective, non-partisan source for information and solutions on a variety of topics. Along with HU’s mission of education and service, the Center for Public Policy stands to serve as the pulse of the people of Virginia.  For top line results, the executive summary and more information on the Hampton University Center for Public Policy call 757-727-5426 or visit"

"Live interviews were conducted by telephone from October 26-30, 2016. The sample was attained from the registered voter list for Virginia. The data was weighted to reflect the voter registration population of Virginia ages 18 years of age and older. This weighting combined with rounding is responsible for percentages not always equaling exactly 100%. This phenomenon is most obvious in the allocation by county as the very large number of response categories provided a multitude of opportunities for rounding and resulted in totals of significantly less than 100% (92%) overall.

The sample is also weighted to reflect the distribution of phone usage for registered voters of Virginia (ie: cell phone only, landline only, and mixed users). Following application of the weights, the sample is post-stratified and balanced by key demographics such as age, race, sex, education, marital status, and party affiliation.

A total of 802 interviews were conducted October 26- 30, 2016; 401 using Landline sample and 401 using Cell sample

The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.57% for the full sample."

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