Thursday, November 3, 2016

Trump +3 over Hillary 45-42 in national poll, 10/31-11/2 (M-W). Trump has 10 point lead over Hillary, 53-43, among the 88% of voters who say they're certain how they'll vote. This is first time any candidate has crossed 50% mark. Trump also has 14 point lead among independent voters-Rasmussen

Trump 45
Hillary 42
Johnson 4
Stein 1

88% of voters are certain. Among them:

Trump 53
Hillary 43

Independent voters

Trump 43
Hillary 29
Johnson 10

Oct. 31-Nov. 2, 2016, 1500 likely voters nationwide, automated phone and internet, error margin 2.5. R32, D36, Ind. 31. Male 48, female 52. White 71, Black 12, Other 17.

11/3/16, "White House Watch: Trump Takes The Lead," Rasmussen Reports 

"Republican Donald Trump has a three-point lead in Rasmussen Reports’ White House Watch survey. Among voters who are certain how they will vote, Trump now has over 50% support

The latest national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Trump leading Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton 45% to 42%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has four percent (4%) support, and Green Party hopeful Jill Stein picks up just one percent (1%). Two percent (2%) like another candidate, and four percent (4%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Clinton and Trump have been tied for the previous two days.  This is the first time Trump’s been ahead in the White House Watch in nearly two weeks, but it remains to be seen whether this is the start of a trend or a one-day hiccup. 

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of voters say they are now certain how they will vote. Among these voters, Trump has a 10-point lead over Clinton – 53% to 43%. Johnson gets two percent (2%) and Stein one percent (1%). This is the first time any candidate has crossed the 50% mark. Among those who still could change their minds, it’s Clinton 36%, Trump 36%, Johnson 22% and Stein six percent (6%). 

Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters. 

The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 31 and November 1-2, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Open enrollment for 2017 under President Obama’s health care law began yesterday, but insurance premiums are expected to skyrocket in many parts of the country. Voters overwhelmingly favor changes in Obamacare, with more voters than ever calling for its outright repeal. Trump advocates repealing and replacing the law. 

Clinton and Trump both earn 83% support from voters in their respective parties and have just over 10% support among voters in their opponent’s party. Trump holds a double-digit lead among unaffiliated voters, but these voters are also the most likely to say they could still change their minds. [83% of independent voters are certain, 15% say could change, per subscription data.]

The GOP candidate still leads among men, while the two are in a near tie among women

Clinton remains well ahead among those under 40, while older voters continue to prefer Trump by similar margins. Younger voters are still the least sure of how they will actually vote. 

Trump holds his lead among whites but continues to be far behind among black and other minority voters. Whites are the most certain of their vote....
In a survey just prior to Comey’s announcement, 37% of Clinton voters said her mishandling of classified information is important to their vote, compared to 96% of Trump voters.  Most undecided voters and supporters of Johnson and Stein also consider this an important voting issue. 

The majority of all voters consider the allegations of sexual harassment by multiple women against Trump important to their vote. But women (10%) are even less likely than men (14%) to say the allegations have caused them to change their vote

Clinton is the first woman presidential nominee of a major U.S. political party, but most voters, including the vast majority of women, insist that won’t make a difference when they cast their vote....

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only."


Race (subscription):

Blacks: Hillary 72,  Trump 23

Other non-whites: Hillary 58, Trump 24


Male: Trump 46, Hillary 40

Female: Hillary 45, Trump 44


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