Friday, September 2, 2016

Trump and Hillary statistically tied in Pennsylvania, August 25-29, 2016 poll of registered voters. Hillary 41, Trump 38, Johnson 7, Stein 2. Franklin and Marshall poll, 4.6 error margin. Among Pennsylvania independent voters Trump leads Hillary by 14 points, 42 to 28

Trump 38
Hillary 41
Johnson 7
Stein 2 

August 25-29, 2016. 48% male, 52% female (p. 29). Error margin for 736 registered voters 4.6. Interviews on phone and internet (p.11). 39R, 49D, 10 Ind. (p. 14)

9/1/16, "August 2016 Franklin and Marshall poll of Pennsylvania"

p. 16, If election today, choice of 4 candidates:

Trump 38
Hillary 41

Johnson 7
Stein 2

(Hillary and Trump are statistically tied among registered voters with only 3 points separation and 4.6 error margin. This isn't labeled "registered voters," but the subject of "registered" voters begins two pages earlier on page 14.)


p. 12, Independent voters: Trump 42, Hillary 28.

Result provided doesn't include all 4 candidates, just Hillary, Trump, and "other."


p. 11, "Methodology"

"The sampling error for the 496 likely voters is +/-5.6 percentage points."

Sampling error for the larger group of 736 registered voters is 4.6.

Data is from "736 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 358 Democrats, 286 Republicans, and 92 Independents. The sample of registered voters was obtained from Labels and Lists." 


Added: Examples of Trump support in Pennsylvania:

Above, 4/28/16, "Westmoreland County (Pa.) house painted to promote Trump," Pittsburgh Tribune Review, "Leslie Baum Rossi stands on her property in Youngstown where she had a building of hers painted to show support for the Donald Trump campaign, on Thursday, April 28, 2016. Photo by Evan R. Sanders | Tribune-Review"  

Above, 7/3/16, same Pa. house as above, "A Trump supporter’s house in Unity Township, in western Pennsylvania. Credit Jeff Swensen for The New York Times," "Donald Trump’s Appeal to Rust Belt Workers," NY Times, Steven Greenhouse

4/22/16, "The spray-painted 450-foot-long Trump sign in Ms. Ryan’s field in northwestern Pennsylvania. Credit via Lynne Ryan," NY Times


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