Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Trump leads in Florida by 4 points in Sept. 7-8, 2016 JMC Analytics poll of likely voters. Trump has 74-11 lead among Hispanic Republicans, leads in I 4 corridor by 6 points, Romney only led Central Florida by 1 point in 2012

Trump 46
Hillary 42
Johnson 3
Stein 1 

Sept, 7-8, 2016, likely Florida voters. 69 white, 13 Hispanic, 13 black, 6 other. Female 56, male 44. 43D, 39R, 18 Ind., 3.5 error margin, automated telephone poll (land line v cell phone not stated). Trump has 74-11 lead among Hispanic Republicans.
9/12/16, "Florida Poll (JMC Analytics): Trump-46; Clinton-42; Rubio up 5." JMC Analytics 

"For this automated poll, a sample of likely households was chosen from the population registered to vote in the state of Florida, and there were 781 completed responses to six poll questions The survey was conducted September 7-8. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 3.5%. 

The demographic breakdown of the respondents was 69-13-13-6% white/black/Hispanic/”other”, while the party registration of respondents was 43-39% Democratic/Republican, (18% Independents). 

The geographic breakdown of the respondents was as follows: 40% from Central Florida, 17% from North Florida, 24% from South Florida, 16% from South Central Florida, and 3% from the “university” counties of Alachua and Leon (The explanation of the boundaries of these regions is graphically depicted in Exhibit A at the end of the poll analysis)."...

From "Summary"...

page 2: Hispanic voters in Florida:

39% Democrat
31% Republican
30 Independent, not affiliated 

Hillary only leads by 44-42 among Florida Hispanic voters, "largely because Trump has a 74-11 lead among Hispanic Republicans."


p. 2, Geographic facet to Trump lead: Central Florida "I 4 corridor":

In 2012 Romney led this area by only one point, 50-49. In 2016 Trump has a 46-40 lead over Hillary in this crucial area.

Gender: Overall, Trump has a nine point lead among men and is tied with Hillary for women voters.

page 3: JMC asked Florida Hispanic voters their view of Trump's immigration plans. They narrowly favor them 40-39.


page 3, Trump leads among Florida independent voters:

Trump 48
Hillary 40
Johnson 5
Stein 1


(Read more at realclearpolitics.com) ...

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