Sunday, September 25, 2016

Trump and Hillary in statistical tie nationwide, 46H-44T with 4.5 error margin, ABC News Washington Post poll, Sept. 19-22, 2016, 651 likely voters nationwide, 37D, 27R, 28 Ind. Trump now +5 among independent voters

Trump 44
Hillary 46
Johnson 5
Stein 1

Independent voters
Trump 43
Hillary 38
Johnson 10
Stein 2

Sept. 19-22, 2015, 4.5 error margin, 37D, 27R, 28 Ind., land line and cell phone, 651 likely voters nationwide

9/25/16, "Clinton-Trump Race Narrows on the Doorstep of the Debates (POLL)," ABC News, Gary Langer

Subhead, "Fundamentals"

"Among other groups, independents also may prove key; their preference was +2 points for Clinton a few weeks ago vs. +5 for Trump in this poll. While that’s within the margin of error, independents customarily are more movable than other likely voters, given that they’re less rooted in partisan predispositions. They haven’t been swing voters (i.e., supporting the winner) in the last two elections -- but where they land in six weeks may matter."


"This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Sept. 19-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including 651 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect, for the full sample, and 4.5 points for likely voters. Partisan divisions are 33-23-36 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, and 37-27-28 among likely voters. 
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y. See details on the survey’s methodology here.... 

More voters say they’re focused on issues than on the candidates’ personal qualities, and in this group the race stands at 46-45 percent."...


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